What do You Think of Martingale Strategies?
For arguments sake, let's assume this is a traditional doubling martingale.
I like them
Account suicide guaranteed
I'm undecided
I don't know what the martingale concept is
Other (give your valuable opinion below!)
What do You Think of Martingale Strategies?
For arguments sake, let's assume this is a traditional doubling martingale.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
MoneyMaker (05-23-2012)
Talk about opening up a massive discussion with a one liner question!
There are so many different aspects to martingale which will separate a doomed trading strategy from a winning one, and that mainly comes down to risk control.
The vast majority of traders love martingales because they are seemingly the 'golden goose' of strategies, as they have perfect success for weeks and months at a time. But this false sense of security is what ultimately ruins them. They become comfortable, they assume the system is faultless. I have come up with an analogy:
"It could be comparable to a person walking through a wildlife sanctuary of lions: You could walk through there for the first week very nervous as you know the lions could pounce and kill you. After a week, your guard starts to drop and you become confident that the patterns of the last week will continue for the future.
Sure enough, they continue, and you're walking through that sanctuary of lions unharmed. A couple of months down the road, you're so comfortable walking around in that sanctuary, you completely forget about the potential danger of the lions. Your risk aversion is none existent: You can't even perceive any risk; so even if risk came, you wouldn't have the tools or plan to deal with it effectively.
One day, you go on a walk through this wonderful lion sanctuary, everything is as normal, then suddenly, out of nowhere a lion pounces on top of you. You're trapped, you don't know what to do. You have no weaponry as you left all of that behind months ago. You feel helpless. All you can do is HOPE the lion will release you. Sometimes the lion will release you, but most time, when it's got your in its grip, it'll maul you until you're dead."
Now, replace the word lion with martingale, and replace the word sanctuary with market.
So the moral of this story is, stay away from a martingale strategy unless you are very well versed in martingale risk control, and you have a very clear and precise understanding of all the possible outcomes of a martingale strategy. Don't focus on the big $$$ you could make, focus of the big $$$ you could lose, and what that $$$ could have done for you if it were still in your bank.
Trading is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.
MissPips (05-22-2012), MoneyMaker (05-23-2012), theMoney (05-22-2012)
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