EUR/USD

[FatcatAdmin]

Price has been supported by the 50% fibo area. New york traders have started to buy the Euro/USD.

It's worthy to note that there has been talk of a large options put expiring in the Eur/CHF soon with a strike of below 1.2000. With that in mind the Euro could come under selling pressure if these large institutions are pumping money into selling the Eur/Chf, essentially selling the euro.

Overall, I'm bullish the eur/chf as new all time lows were hit this morning, and in turn, with a weak USD, I think price may meander sideways in a range.

[FXBear]

Is the bullish activity on the eur/chf expected to continue? How long do you think it will float sideways?

[FXFatcat]

Is the bullish activity on the eur/chf expected to continue? How long do you think it will float sideways?

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I mean I believe the EUR/CHF will rise over the coming weeks, but I think the EUR/USD could trade sideways in a large channel.

China seems to be trying to avoid the dollar, doing deals with emerging nations. All in all, the outlook for the dollar isn't amazing, but as it's still the national defacto currency, it's going to continue to carry some weight.

Oil is at about $99 USD per barrel at the moment. Higher will hurt the dollar, lower will strengthen it.

[Vialpando]

If China is avoiding the dollar, then what are they buying to depreciate their own currency? I read in a trading book by Lien that said China buys bonds to keep it's currency from appreciating and therefore it's goods cheap for American consumers. Any thoughts on this?

[Vialpando]

LOTS of good fundies coming out tomorrow. Any predictions on the US PPI?

[FXFatcat]

LOTS of good fundies coming out tomorrow. Any predictions on the US PPI?

There is a rumour that Belgium could be downgraded today. I think it's just a rumour and big speculation, but here it is - Tomorrow Is The 6 Month Anniversary Of S&P's Threat To Downgrade Belgium "Within 6 Months"

I think the PPI will come out close to what it was forecasted at and that's 0.1%. I don't think this one will have too much of an impact as it's usually used as an indicator to predict the core retail sales.

As the core retail sales are coming out at the same time, that's going to overshaddow the PPI.

The GBP CPI could have a bit of an impact. I think any news at this point for the cable can derail or boost it.

[FXFatcat]

I think a test of 1.42 could be on the books soon, to test that long term trend line mentioned in the daily analysis -http://www.fxfatcat.com/forums/showthread.php?537-EUR-USD-Daily-Technical-Analysis&p=5650&viewfull=1#post5650

[MegaWham]

Check this out - Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, one of Europe's biggest hedge funds, is betting against the euro as Greece's debt crisis nears a boiling point.

The London-based firm, which manages over $32 billion in assets, recently purchased put contracts to sell euros in exchange for dollars, according to two traders. These contracts give the fund the right, but not the obligation, to sell the currency at a fixed price by a specific date in the future.

Brevan Howard's bets, which are short-term wagers, involve exchanging more than $1 billion and cost several million dollars each, according to one of the traders. ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

[mburugua]

EUR/USD failed to retest the 1.4397 NY highs in Asia but the Euro recovery finally extended into the European return. Early action saw sovereign offers into the 1.44-area absorbed and the price remove stops above the figure. 1.4410 barriers also erased as the pair broke above its 55-DMA line, en-route to the 1.4418 highs. However, the Stark rhetoric and the poor EZ data forced a brief pullback below the 1.4400 expiry level. Yet further gains cannot be ruled out as the Euro attempts to gain further ground ahead of the upcoming key Greek austerity/budget vote.

[jamoko77]

I'm looking for a daily close below 1.4500 as upward momentum seems to be waning away before I go short.Yesterday after the Greece voting , cooperate offers emerged which pushed the pair to anew high of 1.4518.A break above 1.4550 exposes 1.700 region which is a psychological resistance and a double zero fade level which may act as interim resistance.Right now as I'm posting ,the pair has receded and now trading at 1.4475 .My most immediate short term resistance is 1.4500.A retest of this region coupled by a bearish close may prompt a short entry.It's also very good for traders to monitor the Greece situation so that we are not caught up in unpredicted price actions.
On the other side I think the pound looks quite lucrative for a short.In early European session , the pound gave up almost a hundred pips within an hour or so , I believe due to some softer data from that region.1.6000 region is at play right now .A daily close I believe should trigger sell offs .I'm keeping an eye on north American traders and to see what develops.