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  1. #1
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    EUR/USD

    Surely there has to be a retracement? (that surely is optimism amongst relentless buying of Euro bonds.

    On the down side however, there will be some profit taking which will stall the bulls or maybe even give a little back.

    p.s. Why does google chrome say I've spelt 'retracement' wrong!

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    I'd monitor it to see how it pans out. To be honest, it could go either way.

    I'd say their using "american english" perhaps? Automated dictionary's are never one's to trust.


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    Earlier today there was a central bank who bought half a yard of the euro, sending price to 1.3580, only to have other banks sell at this area, sending price down to 1.353x area.

    My sentiment is bullish for this pair. Even though the ECB bought 15 billion euros last night (which is bad for the currency), I see dollar weakness. (Yes, feel free to shoot me down as I'm trading on feelings...). Anyway, my target is 1.36 with an entry of 1.3540. No Stop loss


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    If Anybody is interested, this is from the European Central bank.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yes View Post
    If Anybody is interested, this is from the European Central bank.
    Woah this is nice. What does this all mean exactly?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Vialpando View Post
    Woah this is nice. What does this all mean exactly?
    That was liquidity data from the European Central Bank. There's info on it here - http://www.ecb.int/mopo/liq/html/index.en.html

    Copied below:

    Simplified Eurosystem balance sheet


    Assets (liquidity supply) Liabilities (liquidity needs) Open market operations Current accounts Marginal lending facility Deposit facility Net liquidity effect from Autonomous Factors and SMP

    The liquidity needs of the banking system result from the minimum reserve requirements imposed on euro area credit

    institutions and from autonomous factors, which are normally beyond the direct control of the ECB. Such factors can be banknotes
    in circulation and government deposits with some national central banks.
    The ECB normally aims to satisfy the liquidity needs of the banking system via its open market operations.
    Finally, counterparties can access the Eurosystem's standing facilities with an overnight maturity.


    Reflecting non-standard monetary policy measures


    The regular publication of figures relating to the liquidity position of the euro area banking system vis-à-vis the Eurosystem also takes into account all non-standard monetary policy measures that have been used since August 2007:

    • Covered Bond Purchase Programme: The liquidity provision coming from the covered bond portfolio is displayed under open market operations.
    • Securities Markets Programme*: The liquidity provision coming from the securities markets programme is displayed together with autonomous factors under an item called “Net liquidity effect from autonomous factors and SMP”. The liquidity-absorbing operations that are carried out to sterilize the liquidity provided through the SMP are shown under open market operations.
    • Foreign exchange swap operations: The euro liquidity absorption resulting from the provision of foreign currency to Eurosystem counterparties via FX swaps was discontinued in January 2010. Until June 2009, this euro liquidity absorption was displayed under autonomous factors, while thereafter is has been part of outstanding open market operations.
    • The benchmark allotment amount for main refinancing operations, takes into account the liquidity effect of all non-standard measures. For illustrations on the calculation of the benchmark allotment amount, please see the dedicated document “Calculation of the benchmark allotment in the main refinancing operations”.

    * Outstanding amounts of liquidity provided under the Securities Markets Programme can be found on the Weekly Financial Statement of the Eurosystem as well as in the section "Open Market Operations.


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    I promise you a touch of 1.3700 within the next hour.... Okay, I won't promise but I think it's highly likely. Enjoy.


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    Good analysis here on the EURUSD.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94QLxojvtAY


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    Trend line

    Keep a watch on this trend line here - it's crucial for determining a short term trend, in my opinion.

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