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Thread: EUR/USD

  1. #21
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    It's been a very aggressive sharp rally from the touch of the 1.3966 area lows, 700 pips without any major retracement.

    Take a look at the chart attached below: I have highlighted the recent past rallies in the EUR/USD. The biggest without any major retracement was from 1.27 to 1.42, about 1500 pips. All the other rallies were capped before 1000 pips, and each had a healthy retracement, most at least the 38.2% fibonnaci retracement level.

    The idea is a potential short between here and 1.50.

    Our 3 month analysis sees the EUR/USD at about 1.42 to 1.44, so we see a fall from the current place.

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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  2. #22
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    Have a look at the attached image below; I've done quite a bit of analysis on it.

    Notice the horizonal yellow line on the stochastic indicator, these have been the extremes in the buy zone over the past year. In most instances, whenever the stochastic reaches this level, price retreats somewhat, and in somecases drastically either within the following few days or within 2 weeks.

    This suggests, from history, that if a trade was placed now at this level, price will retreat back below your entry price within, on average a week.

    There was one extreme which took about 45 days to retreat below, but when it did fall it carried on falling like a stone.

    A possible trade idea would be to short around this area, with a large stop, making sure your account can handle large swings, with a take profit of 1.4400. This would be a position trade where you could be in the trade for a few months.

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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  3. #23
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    Looking at it closer, the EUR/USD looks like it could correct to possibly the 50% fibo level at 1.4340 or so. Have a look at the chart below for information.

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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  4. #24
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    Keep an eye on the trend support line. If that breaks we'll probably go down and test those levels you spoke about FatCat


  5. #25
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    The German Industrial Production m/m was an absolute stinker, coming in at -0.6%. Seeing as Germany is their prop up economy, that's not good for the Euro.

    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  6. #26
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    Look at the piercing of the trend line. If there is a break and a close of a 1 hourly candle below, and preferebly the daily, I believe price will test 1.45 first, and then the aforementioned fibonacci 50% level.

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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  7. #27
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    On the other hand, if the trend line holds, look for a test of 1.47 and a potential break out upwards from there.

    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  8. #28
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    I see a potential head and shoulder pattern forming. 1.47 looks like a serious testing target. The daily chart shows leeway for a Euro rally above 1.47. I'm rather unfamiliar with using fib tools. Gonna look into now.


  9. #29
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    There are good fib "tools" in Metatrader as standard, although they aren't to be considered as plugin tools. There are fib retracement, fib timezones, fib fan and fib expansion in general. The majority of people tend to only use fib retracement..


  10. #30
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    Now all the eyes are on Trichet at the ECB press conference. If he is hawkish and positive we could see 1.47 again soon, but if he isn't it could drop to 1.4550 and then 1.45 quite quick, with all the debt worries in the EU

    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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