LiteForex Market Analytics

[Shuvalov]

USD/JPY: the reversal from the support levels is possible



Current trend

From the middle of March the JPY is growing against the USD. As the USD, the EUR and GBP are unstable, the investors’ interest towards the JPY is growing. In addition the Japan main economy sectors data are positive, which also supports the JPY. The USA macroeconomic data are controversial, and the restrained position of the USA FRS members upon the further decreasing of the stimulating program presses the USD significantly, so the pair is lowering during the last 5 trading weeks.

Last week the list of the negative USA issues was published, which weakened the USD. The Japan Industrial Production data and the Machine Tool Orders report, published in the same period, were positive.

Today the volatility is not expected to be high due to the absence of the key macroeconomical issues.



Support and resistance

Today the pair continued to lower, and the decrease can continue to the level of 107.30 in the short term, and then the pair will reverse into the upward correction. The Bank of Japan has stated that the high rate of the JPY is not profitable for the Japan economy, so the reversal is possible in the middle term period. The trend can change at the key support level at 107.30, 106.50, 105.50.

The technical indicators reflect the consolidation of the trend, MACD short positions volumes are growing.

Support levels: 108.10, 107.30, 106.50, 105.50, 104.10

Resistance levels: 108.80, 109.15, 109.85, 110.10, 110.50, 111.45, 112.20, 112.90



Trading scenario

It’s better to increase the volume of the short positions in the current trend with the target at 107.30, 106.50, but remember that the trend can change in the nearest future. Stop loss is at 109.30.



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[Shuvalov]

EUR/USD: general analysis



Current trend

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair grew due to the slight weakness of the USD. The European markets were closed due to the Easter holidays, which affected the volatility and liquidity in the morning. The EUR began to grow against the USD, when the USA session opened, and the pair reached the level of 1.0670.

The traders wait for the upcoming Elections in France. Despite the fact that one of the major candidates Le Pen, who supports the tight policy, is losing her positions in the opinions pall, the major part of the electorate still didn’t make up its mind. Taking in consideration the election experience in the other countries, the objectivity of the opinion polls is doubtful, so the electing of the right wing candidate is still possible. In this scenario the Eurozone will have a hard time, as Le Pen supports the France leaving the EU.

The Presidential Elections in France are due at Sunday.



Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is lowering towards the strong resistance level of 1.0700. MACD is below the zero line, but is ready to cross the signal line, its volumes decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral line, pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0590, 1.0550.

Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0770, 1.0830.



Trading scenario

Buy the pair is the price is set above the level of 1.0700 with the target at 1.0770, stop loss is at 1.0670.

Open short positions below the level of 1.0650 and target at 1.0590 and 1.0550, stop loss is at 1.0680.

Implementation period: 1-2 days.





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[Shuvalov]

Brent Crude Oil: general review



Current trend

On Tuesday Brent quotes decreased to the level of 55.00. This happened after the statement by Saudi Arabia Minister of Energy Khalid A. Al-Falih that is was early to consider the possibility of extension of OPEC+ agreement. The disappointment of the market was not eliminated even by the weekly report of American Petroleum Institute according to which US oil reserves reduced yet again by 840K barrels. The quotes still remain at the level of 55.00. Today the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo tried to calm down the investors by saying that the cartel was optimistic about the situation and that the measures taken by it would lead to the recovery of the market. Another positive factor for the bulls was the statement by the UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei who pointed out that he was satisfied with the fulfillment of the agreement on the reduction of oil production.

These statement led to the growth of the quotes to 55.40. Upward movement may continue if API data is confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. New weekly reduction of oil reserves may push the quotes to April maximums to the level of 56.60.



Support and resistance

Technically the price is trading within a narrow downward channel. Breaking through its upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 55.55 may lead to further growth to 56.15 and 56.65. Otherwise the downward movement may resume to the level of 54.10 (correction 38.2%).

Support levels: 55.10, 54.10, 53.35.

Resistance levels: 55.55, 56.15, 56.65.



Trading tips

In the current situation short positions may be opened below 55.10 with targets at 54.10 and stop-loss at 55.30. In case the level of 55.55 is broken out, long positions with targets at 56.15, 56.60 and stop-loss at *55.15 will be relevant.

[Shuvalov]

WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis



WTI Crude Oil, D1

On D1 chart the instrument dropped down and corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in positive zone with its volume at the minimum, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from below, which is a signal to open long positions. Stochastic signal line is in the neutral zone and is directed downwards. If the signal line crosses the border between the neutral zone and the oversold zone will indicate possible reversal of the price.

WTI Crude Oil, H4

On H4 chart the instrument reached the lower border of Bollinger Bands and slowed down its fall. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from above, which is a signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, moving along the border with the oversold zone and not giving any clear signal.



Key levels

Support levels: 51.00, 50.50, 50.00, 49.30, 48.00, 47.15.

Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.50, 53.00, 53.50, 54.10, 54.50, 55.00.



Trading tips

In view of technical indicators, opening short positions from the current price with targets at 50.50, 50.00 seems preferable. Stop-loss should be placed on the level of 51.80. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

Buy positions may be opened at the level of 52.00 with targets at 52.50, 53.00 and stop-loss at 51.70. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

[Shuvalov]

GBP/USD: general review



Current trend

The growth of GBP/USD slowed down today in view of publication of retail sales data from the UK. The indicator appeared to be less than forecast and reduced by 1.8% in monthly terms. On YoY basis it increased oinly by 1.7% against the expected growth by 3.4%. However, after significant growth in the beginning of the week the pound remains quite confident against US dollar and keeps trying to consolidate above 1.2850. The key support level is 1.2700. After breaking through it the "bulls" are likely to take a break which may lead to a correction to the level of 1.2400 in the medium term.

Today traders should pay attention to news from the USA namely changes in Markit Manufacturing PMI as well as compound Markit PMI.



Support and resistance

On D1 chart the price corrected to the upper border of Bollinger Band and slowed growth. MACD histogram is in the positive area and keeps the signal for the opening of long positions.

Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.

Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900.



Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2760.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2690 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2720.

The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

[Shuvalov]

AUD/USD: general analysis



Current trend

Last week the pair was traded controversial. In the beginning of the week the AUD was lowering due to the RBA meeting minutes, which confirmed the “dovish” policy and kept the interest rate on the minimum level. On Thursday and Friday the USD was lowering after the publication of the negative employment market and building data.

Yesterday the USD continued to fall due to the negative secondary business activity data. Despite the fact that the AUD/USD trading day closed in the red zone the whole dynamics is positive. The pair strongly consolidated above the level of 0.7500.

Today is ANZAC Day in Australia, so the banks don’t work and there is no news and publications, so the traders should pay attention to the USA Consumer Confidence publication (expected to be negative) and the New Home Sales data (expected to be negative, too).

On Wednesday the Australian Consumer Price Index is worth traders’ attention (expected to be positive). If it meets the expectations and the corresponding RBA decisions follows, the AUD will strengthen in the nearest future.



Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380, 0.7310.

Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7570, 0.7680, 0.7750.



Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7615, 0.7680, stop loss is at 0.7480.

Open short positions at the level of 0.7490 with the target at 0.7440, 0.7380, stop loss is at 0.7530.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

[Shuvalov]

GBP/USD: general analysis



Current trend

The consolidation of the pair after the rapid growth on last Tuesday reflects the investors’ uncertainty in the further dynamics, as they are waiting for clearer signals. Yesterday in the first half of the day US dollar was strengthening, but the pair managed to keep its positions. Tonight's growth attempts of USD were also followed by the strengthening of GBP/USD which indicates slim chanses of the pair's quick return to monthly or even 2-weeks minimums. On Friday the UK GDP key data (expected to be positive) and the YoY USA GDP data (expected to be negative) are worth traders’ attention.

Today there is no significant news from the UK, and the Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation data (expected to be negative) and the Pending Home Sales data (expected to be negative) are to be published today in the USA.

The consolidation of the pair until Friday is expected.



Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.3035, 1.3200.

Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2865.



Trading scenario

Open short positions at the current price with the targets at 1.2780, 1.2700, stop loss is at 1.2930.

Buy the pair at the level of 1.2930 with the target at 1.3035 and stop loss at 1.2890.

[Shuvalov]

USD/JPY: general review



Current trend

In the beginning of the previous week the pair USD/JPY reversed from its 5-month minimum. The growth of yen stopped after the publication of Japanese trading balance (much worse than forecast) last Thursday. This week the growth of the pair continued despite the fall of USD. The pair continued to weaken after yesterday's decision of the Bank of Japan to keep the interest rate unchanged in the minimum level. The pair reached its 4-weeks minimum and broke through the resistance level of 111.20. A number of important macroeconomic releases were published in Japan tonight: consumer price index, labor market data, production output forecast, and the volume of retail sales. All indicators lost a number of positions but investors failed to show any evident reaction so far.

No important releases from Japan are to be expected until next week. From the USA the market is waiting for the GDP data with a negative outlook at 14:30 (GMT+2). PMI Chicago (also with a negative forecast) is due at 15:15 (GMT+2), and consimer sentiment index with a neutral outlook will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). Statements by FOMC members Harket and Brainard are due at 19:15 (GMT+2) and 20:30 (GMT+2) respectively.

The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the upward correction.



Support and resistance

Support levels: 110.20, 108.90, 107.40.

Resistance levels: 111.20, 112.20, 113.20, 114.00.



Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price wuth targets at 112.20, 113.20 and stop-loss at 110.30.

Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 110.20 with target at 108.90 and stop-loss at 111.10.

[Shuvalov]

NZD/USD: general review



Current trend



Last Friday a number of important releases came from New Zealand: trading balance and construction permits. Although March trading balance showed stable growth in March, it appeared to be less than forecast. The number of construction permits fell considerably in comparison with the previous period. All these factors had a negative impact on the dynamics of the pair that has been falling for the whole previous week and updated 11-months minimums after reaching the level of 0.6850. The pair weakened in view of US dollar's being under the influence of mixed factors that the investors perceive as "hawkish". This is especially important in view of the upcoming FOMC decision on the interest rate that is expected to be made on Wednesday, May 3 at 20:00 (GMT+2).



No important releases are expected from New Zealand today. From the USA, on the contrary, certain important data are due: a statement by the US Minister of Finance Stephen Mnuchin at 13:45 (GMT+2), information on personal income and expenditure with mixed forecasts (income decreases, and expenditure goes up which indicates slower economy rates) at 14:30 (GMT+2), and at 16:00 (GMT+2) — Manufacturing PMI and Inflation Build-Up Index (both with negative outlooks also indicating slower economy growth). In case the forecasts prove true, Wednesday decision on the interest rate will be under strong "dovish" influence. Today's speech by Stephen Mnuchin is to clarify many things. One may expect his rhetorics to determine the dynamics of the pair (and all other USD pairs) this week.

The main scenario for today will be further weakening of the pair.



Support and resistance



Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6710, 0.6600.

Resistance levels: 0.6865, 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7075.



Trading tips



Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.6800, 0.6710 and stop-loss at 0.6910.

Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.6865 with targets at 0.6910, 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.6820.

The period of implementation is 1-2 days.



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[Shuvalov]

XAG/USD: technical analysis



XAG/USD, D1



On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of Bollinger Bands, having formed 5 consecutive closes below the line. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, having reached its critical oversold levels.



XAG/USD, H4



On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing from below the border of the oversold zone that coincide with its longer MA. The Composite keeps developing Bullish dynamics.



Key levels



Support levels: 16.79 (March lows), 16.38 (October 2015 highs), 16.15 (November 2016 lows).

Resistance levels: 17.08 (October 2016 lows), 17.19 (December 2016 highs), 17.67 (local highs).



Trading tips



The price is testing a strong support near 16.80. Indicators suggest a high chance of an upward correction.

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 17.08, 17.19 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.70 with the target at 16.38 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.



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