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Thread: LiteForex Market Analytics

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    LiteForex Market Analytics

    Gazprom: General analysis

    On Wednesday major indices of Russian stock market were in the bear power; MICEX lost 2.60%, while losses of RTS amounted to 2.79%. Sale was caused by negative news from China and Europe.

    IMF has lowered forecast for economic growth in China from 8 to 7.75%. Forecast of slowdown in Chinese economy made oil traders reduce their positions and in the result crude oil Brent declined by 0.5%, which has a negative impact on dynamics of Russian shares. It also became known that agency Moody’s had revised rating of Italian regions such as Campania, Lazio and Sicily and downgraded the rating by two notches to Ba2. Obviously, European crisis is far from completion despite statements of some officials that EU managed to weather hard times.
    The data on Russian economy is not very optimistic either: as per AECD forecast of GDP growth in 2014 was lowered to the level of 3.6% against previous figure of 4.6%.

    Therefore, at the end of the day Gazprom shares fell by 1.85%. On the daily chart the lowest price was recorded at the level of 118.28. This level is a support level and probably the price will push off from this level and after that technical correction will follow. It is recommended to open long positions at the level of 119 with protective orders near 118.88 and a target of 120.92.

    LiteForex Representative

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    USDCHF: investors hesitating

    1. Current trend
    Yesterday macroeconomic news from USA didn’t meet the investors’ expectations. The released data were negative comparing to the forecasts. However dollar has strengthened its positions thanks to the speech of FRS chairman. He announced that inspite of economic recovery FRS is not going to curtail QE program until 2014. Indicators of the Bernanke’s success will be reports on Unemployment claims. Experts predict decrease of the index down to 344000 rate. If the actual rate is lower than that of the forecast, American currency will have an extra support.

    2. Levels of support and resistance
    Support levels are 0.9377 and 0.9407; resistance level will be at the local maximum (0.9454).

    3. Technical indicators
    Moving Average of MACD indicator has left the histogram zone. The histogram itself is in negative zone. There is a signal to buy. The other signal to buy has been formed by the crossing of bottom Envelopes line and the price chart.

    4. Trading tips
    I would recommend to buy at the current price with Take Profit orders at 38.2% Fibonacci line (0.9515). Stop Loss orders should be placed at 0.9377.


    Kamil Avad
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

    LiteForex Representative

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    GBPUSD: pair will continue to grow

    1. Current trend
    On Wednesday the British currency received tremendous support from the members of the UK Monetary Policy Committee, who unanimously decided not to make changes in the monetary policy due to positive statistics in for the last quarter and general economic stability. With the help of support provided by macroeconomic indices, the pair GBPUSD soared up by more than 150 points.
    Before the speech of the US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke the pair was volatile, first reaching the local highs of 1.5265 and then going below the level of 1.5200. The speech by Ben Bernanke was positive. He highlighted that program of assets purchase will be minimized by mid-2014, if unemployment rate will amount to 7% by this time.
    However the program can be suspended later or earlier than planned depending on the forecast of the labor market. Investors assessed Bernanke’s speech as positive and the USD started to grow, while the pair GBPUSD fell to the level of 1.5160. Attention today should be paid to the next speech of the US Fed chairman and on the publication of the retail sale index in UK.

    2. Important levels: support and resistance
    In the current situation it is likely that the pair will decline due to USD strengthening and weak data on the British retail sales. Later ascending trend will resume. The decline will reach support level of 1.5100-1.5050 and after that the pair will grow to the new local highs of 1.5300-1.5410.

    3. Best entry/exit points
    We would recommend to place long pending positions from the level of 1.5050-1.5100 with profit taking at the level of 1.5300.

    4. Supporting facts
    On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating that ascending trend will continue.


    Dmitry Likhachev
    Analysts of LiteForex Group of Companies

    LiteForex Representative

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    EURJPY: analysis and forecast

    1. Current trend
    The pair has been moving in the wide ascending channel throughout a month. European currency is gradually regaining positions against the Yen, periodically experiencing correction. At the moment the pair is not far from the local highs, which was reached this May.
    On Monday election to the upper House of the Japanese Parliament will take place. It is assumed that the ruling party will win the majority of seats. Thus, the government will receive support for the required reforms.
    Technical indicators demonstrate growth in the pair. Stochastic is in the neutral zone; however both lines of the indicator are directed upward. Histogram and the signal line of MACD indicator are in the positive zone, volumes continue to increase slowly. All three moving average lines are directed upward, indicating growth.

    2. Levels of support and resistance
    The main resistance, which keeps down further rise in the pair is the level of 131.50. Next resistance levels will be 132.00 and 132.50. Support levels: 131.00, 131. 20 and 131.00.

    3. Trading tips
    If the price consolidates above the level of 131.50, it is advisable to open long positions However if resistance will be strong, preventing the rise in the pair, it is advisable to open short positions with the target at the level of 130.30.


    Ilya Lashenko
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

    LiteForex Representative

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    Weekly analytical review of the financial market of 12.08.2013

    Weekly analytical review and forecast of Forex market. Financial instruments EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY.

    Other analytical reviews are available at LiteForex site: http://www.liteforex.com/trading/tools/analytics/



    LiteForex Representative

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    GBP/USD: the pair is preparing to break through 1.5490

    1. Current trend
    Since last week the pair has been within downward correction, which had been provoked by the FOMC Minutes publication. ThisTuesday Pound has already lost more than 150 points. Even positive GDP data from UK couldn’t stop the fall. According to the preliminary forecasts, GDP will rise up to 0.7% exceeding the expectations. There are no important releases in trader’s calendar for today, but tomorrow we anticipate the speech of BOE Mark Carney. His speech will probably cause high market volatility.

    2. Support and resistance
    We can see a development of the downward movement. The price is moving towards middle MA of Bollinger Bands 1.5490. If this level is broken through, the pair will go further down to the level of 1.5400 and even to the lower border of the uprising channel. Otherwise the price can return to the levels of 1.5600 and 1.5650. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open short trades with Take Profit orders at 1.5400.

    3. Technical indicators
    On the daily chart indicators confirm the possibility of fall. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, but the price chart is moving towards the MA. MACD histogram is in overbought zone. It crosses signal line from above, forming a signal to sell. Stochastic lines have entered oversold zone, giving another signal to sell.



    Dmitriy Zolotov
    Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

    LiteForex Representative

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    With kind permission of the Forum Administration we'll be glad to share with everybody our view of the Forex market.

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    USD/JPY: within range



    Current trend



    After a growth amid publication of strong labour market data from the US, the pair is trading within a narrow range.

    The pair remains under pressure from strong NFPR data and Bank of Japan commentaries that represented regulator’s tendency to continue with easy monetary policy. The most likely scenario is the pair’s movement within sideways channel until Friday when Retail Sales data for October is due in the US.

    Attention of the markets is now focused on employment and inflation data from the US in November and beginning of December. If data comes out rather negative, the pair can fall.



    Support and resistance



    The price broke out the resistance level at 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and continues moving along an ascending channel on the 4-hour and daily charts towards 123.70 (23.6% correction), 124.50 (upper border of the channel).

    At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 122.50 would send the pair towards 121.50 (50% correction), 120.60 (61.8% correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

    OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions and start turning to purchases on the 4-hour chart.

    Support levels: 123.00, 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.

    Resistance levels: 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.



    Trading tips



    Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 123.40 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 123.10.

    Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.90 with targets at 122.50, 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 123.20.











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    USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics



    Current trend



    Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.

    At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.



    Support and resistance



    On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.

    OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.

    The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).

    Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.

    Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.



    Trading tips



    Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.

    Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.











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    XAU/USD: technical analysis



    Current trend



    XAU/USD, D1

    On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.

    XAU/USD, H4

    On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.



    Support and resistance



    Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).

    Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).



    Trading tips



    Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.

    Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.











    LiteForex Representative

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