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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #281
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    Date : 6th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    U.S. reports: Bund futures moved higher in after hour trade yesterday after the Fed minutes showed that the Fed discussed scaling back its balance sheet later in the year, which knocked U.S. stocks off highs and weighed on markets in Asia. The Nikkei is down -1.45%, ASX and Hang Seng is also in the red as are U.K. stock futures. The DAX already underperformed yesterday and is likely to continue to head south against that background, which will underpin European bond futures and keep a lid on yields. Investors also remain cautious ahead of the Trump Xi meeting. In Europe, the ECB will release its minutes and ECB President Draghi will speak at the opening of a conference, with markets looking for clues on the state of the debate on the future of asset purchases and the assessment of Nowotny’s call to hike the deposit rate ahead of the end of QE. Data releases include Swiss inflation data and Eurozone retail and construction PMIs.

    US reports: 263k March ADP rise beat 187k estimation, following a trimming in the February ADP rise to 245k (was 298k) that narrowed the gap to the 227k private payroll increase in that month. There was a surprisingly large 82k March goods employment gain with outsized increases of 49k for construction and 30k for factories that explained the March overshoot, alongside a 4k rise for mining and an expected 181k service employment gain. The ADP figures overshot private payrolls by a whopping 71k in February, after overshoots of 25k in January, 3k in December, 38k in November, and 15k in October to leave an average overshoot since the October methodology change of 30k, hence diminishing the significance of today’s 38k overshoot of our March nonfarm payroll estimates. Additionally,the U.S. ISM-NMI drop to a 5-month low of 55.2 reversed the February climb to a 16-month high of 57.6 in February from 56.5 in January, while declines in the employment and new order components allowed a drop in the ISM-adjusted reading to a 7-month low of 53.9 from a 16-month high of 56.5 in February and 54.8 in January.

    FOMC minutes: “most” participants could see a change in the reinvestment policy later in the year, but views were mixed on how and when the changes would occur. The minutes to the March 14, 15 FOMC meeting also indicated “many” emphasized that shrinking the size of the balance sheet should be done in a “passive and predictable manner.” Also, both Treasuries and MBS should be a part of the reinvestment changes. But, there was also discussion of costs and benefits of phasing out or ceasing all at once the reinvestment of principal. Meanwhile, on interest rates, nearly all officials thought the U.S. was at full employment. Overall economic risks were generally balanced, but many saw upside risk to the economy from fiscal policy. There were various views on the extent of labor market slack, as well as how close inflation was to the 2% goal. And while there were no clear indications that policymakers were ready to pull the tightening trigger again as soon as May, there weren’t any signs the FOMC was ready to abandon its tightening path either.

    Germany: Feb manufacturing orders rose 3.4% m/m, slightly less than anticipated, but with January revised up to -6.8% m/m from -7.4% m/m, the annual rate nevertheless jumped to 4.6% y/y. Domestic orders rebounded strongly from the slump at the start of the year, while export orders stagnated as a dip in orders from other Eurozone countries, the second in a row, counterbalanced a rise in orders from non-EMU countries. All in all broadly in line with expectations, and together with confidence data confirming that the recovery remains on track, which adds to Weidmann’s calls for a phasing out of asset purchases.

    Main Macro Events Today

    ECB – ECB president Draghi will speak in Frankfurt today, while and the minutes of the March ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are also today as well.

    Trump-Xi – Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Florida to meet President Trump, with the President saying North Korea will be high up on the agenda.

    US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may retreat 8k to 250k for the April 1 week.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #282
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    Date : 17th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    Political events and will remain firmly in focus this week. The market resurrection since the November election is being assaulted from all angles as the asset allocation pendulum swings back in favour of safety and away from risk. Divergent signals are evident from “hard data” such as weak retail sales and GDP versus “soft data” like surging consumer confidence and ISMs. After campaigning against U.S. globalism and interventionism, Trump continues to speak loudly on Twitter, but is now carrying a big stick. Intervention in Syria and Afghanistan and now with a US Strike Group off the Korean peninsula risks signals continue to ramp up. Elsewhere France goes to the polls at the weekend and President Erdogan appears to have won the referendum in Turkey. Gold trades at $1,290.00

    United States: The economic calendar resumes with the Empire State index forecast to slip (Monday) to 15.0 in April from 16.4 in March, along with an update on the NAHB housing market index, seen easing to 70 in April from 71. Housing starts are expected to sink 0.6% in March to a 1,280k pace (Tuesday), though permits are seen rising to 1,260k from 1,216k. Industrial production is set to grow 0.3% in March from 0.1% (Tuesday), while capacity use rises to 76.1% from 75.9%. MBA mortgage applications may again be positively impacted (Wednesday) by the drop in rates with increased geopolitical risks, while EIA energy inventories remain fluid. The Philly Fed index may take a hit (Thursday) and decline to 25.0 in April after the surge to 32.8 in March. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound (Thursday) 14k to 248k for the week ending April 15, while the leading indicators index may rise 0.2% in March (median 0.2%) vs 0.6%. The week rounds out (Friday) with April Markit PMI and March existing home sales set to rebound 3.1% to a 5.65 mln pace from 5.48 mln in February. A small handful of Fedspeakers will be on hand this week including, George, Resengren and Kaskari . Earnings continue this week and include; Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Morgan Stanley and Verizon.

    Canada: Only CPI and Homes sales of note this week. We expect CPI (Friday) to expand 0.5% m/m in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gasoline prices tracked higher through March. Meanwhile, total CPI is seen slowing to a 1.9% y/y pace in March from 2.0% in February. The trio of core measures remained muted in February, consistent with a tame backdrop of underlying inflation growth. The March existing home sales report is also due Tuesday. Total existing home sales jumped 5.2% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, and another firm reading would not be a shock.

    Europe: Another holiday-shortened week, with most markets still closed Monday for Easter holiday celebrations. Political event risks are moving back into focus meanwhile as the first round of the French Presidential Election on April 23 draws nearer. The data calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.5% and core inflation at just 0.7%. The fall back clearly below the 2% limit in March is partly due to the later timing of Easter this year, which saw holiday related prices rising in April rather than March, so the data doesn’t change the picture of gradually rising headline rates, which will keep pressure on Draghi and Co to at least drop the implicit easing bias from the statement, even if the QE schedule is confirmed until the end of the year.

    UK: London markets reopen after the Easter break on Tuesday. The calendar is quiet, and Brexit related developments are likely to remain limited ahead of the April-29 EU summit, while negotiations aren’t likely to start in earnest until after German elections in September. The only data release of note this week is retail sales for March (Friday), which we expect to decline 0.3% m/m (median same) and February’s 1.4% m/m gain..

    Japan: The March trade report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a narrowed JPY 500.0 bln surplus, versus the revised 813.5 bln in February.

    Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the April meeting (Tuesday) is the main event, and there may be little of interest in the minutes. The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance in April, as had been general expected. Economic data is in short supply.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #283
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    Date : 18th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed after returning from the holidays, with ASX and Hang Seng selling off, while the Nikkei close up 0.35% at 18,418. Australia’s market was hit by a drop in the mining sector amid the slump in iron ore and as concerns about the housing sector is denting the recent optimism in financials. The Hang Seng was hit by catch up trades after losses on mainland exchanges. FTSE 100 futures are also down, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Oil prices are little changed, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.65 per barrel. Geopolitical factors continue to weigh and European markets have to digest Erdogan’s narrow victory in his bid to extend the presidential powers and the prospect of a tight Presidential election in France on the weekend. Amid this core bond markets are likely to remain supported and Draghi will keep a close eye on spread amid lingering risk aversion. Today’s calendar is unlikely to bring major surprises, with the final Eurozone HICP reading for March expected to be confirmed at 1.5% and EMU trade numbers usually not a market mover.

    RBA Minutes: Steady rates consistent with growth and inflation targets, labour and housing markets “warranted careful monitoring” in coming months, Labour market somewhat weaker than expected, keeping wage growth low, Household consumption growth little weaker than expected in early 2017. CPI expected to pick up above 2 pct in 2017, core inflation to rise more slowly. RBA minutes repeats a rising in A$ would complicate economic adjustment, GDP likely expanded at moderate pace in Q1, impact of cyclone Debbie unlikely to be large. Commodity prices to boost national income in Q1, but terms of trade to decline from here, saw rising risks in household debt, housing markets. Finally – global growth accelerating broadly, Chinese economy appeared to have strengthened; protectionist policies in US still a risk. AUD sold off overnight and AUD USD currently trades at 0.7554 down from Mondays high at 0.7610.

    US Data Yesterday: The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 3 points to 68 in April after climbing 6 points to 71 in March (revised from 71), which was the highest since June 2005. It was 58 a year ago too. The single family sales index dipped 3 points to 74 after surging 6 points to 77 previously (revised from 78). But it’s been over 70 for five straight months, a sign of continued demand for new construction, according to the report. The future single family index fell 3 points to 75 after a 5 point pick up in March to 78. The index of prospective buyer traffic slipped 1 point to 52 from 53 (revised from 54). The Empire State headline plunged to a 5-month low of 5.2 from 16.4 in March and a 29-month high of 18.7 in February, versus a similar 6.5 in January. Yet the component data were mostly solid, and the ISM-adjusted Empire State remained unchanged at the 6-year high of 55.2 in March, versus 54.5 in February and 50.7 in January. The April headline drop coincided with declines in the orders and workweek components after big March increases, but all the remaining components rose.

    Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer did not discuss the policy course in his prepared remarks on “Monetary Policy Expectations and Surprises.” Rather it was a more academic summation of the Fed’s communications. He also pondered, can the Fed be too predictable, to which he answered “it is hard to argue that predictability in our reaction to economic data could be anything but positive” and he noted the clarity of the Fed’s reaction function allows the market to anticipate Fed actions and smoothly adjust. However, there could be some difficulties with respect to unexpected shocks to the economy if it appeared the FOMC was not being sufficiently responsive to incoming data that might affect the outlook. He does not look for a major market disturbance akin to the taper tantrum this time around as the FOMC shrinks its balance sheet, especially given the limited market reaction to the indication in the March FOMC minutes that a wind-down.

    Main Macro Events Today

    U.S. Housing Starts – March housing starts data is out later and should reveal a 1,256k pace for starts, up from 1,246k in January and 1,279k in December. Permits for the month should be 1,260k, up from 1,216k in February and completions should be 1,120k from 1,114k in February. The March NAHB posted an increase to 71, up from 65 in February before dipping back to 68 in April.

    U.S. Industrial Production – March industrial production data is also out today expectations are for a 0.4% headline gain after a 0.1% headline in February and -0.1% in January. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 76.1% from 75.9% in February. Mining and manufacturing hours worked from the March employment report were firm which could lend some upside risk to the headline.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #284
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    Date : 19th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The global sell off in equities continued in Asia overnight, as commodities continued to slide. Most Asian markets are in the red, with the Nikkei managing to outperform and holding on to slight gains as the Yen retreats and helps to underpin exporters. U.S. stock futures are higher, but U.K. futures are signaling a further slide in U.K. stocks, which were hit by a stronger Pound and May’s surprise announcement of a snap election on June 8 yesterday. The FTSE 100 closed with a nearly 2.5% loss on Tuesday and while Eurozone markets also headed south, losses were much more muted. Core bond futures had a bumpy ride yesterday, but Bund and Gilts managed to close higher in the end and with the Bund contract consolidating gains in after hour trade and U.K. stock futures still in the doldrums, it seems likely that Bund futures will remain supported at the open. French markets meanwhile remain under pressure ahead of Sunday’s first round of the Presidential election, as leftist EU critic Melenchon threatens to throw a spanner in the works. The European calendar has final Eurozone inflation data for March and EU trade numbers for February.

    US reports: industrial production data that closely tracked estimates and a housing starts report that modestly fell short, though both reports documented a rebounding factory sector and a housing market that continues to grow despite March setbacks, with big winter distortions from a mild winter and weakness in the vehicle sector. For industrial production, a 0.5% headline rise reflected an 8.6% March surge in utility output after a 13.4% 6-month drop to a 13-year low, alongside a 3.8% vehicle assembly rate drop that partly explains the weak March jobs report. For housing, starts fell 6.8% in March alongside a 3.6% permits rise and a 3.2% climb for completions that proved particularly strong through the winter months.

    UK: UK PM announced a snap general election for June 8, clearly looking for a strong mandate from the public as she heads into negotiations to take the UK out of the EU. May, having replaced Cameron mid-term as PM, would strength her position in the event that her Tory party wins the election, which does seem likely given the prevailing disarray of the opposition and with the economy having held up well since the vote to leave the EU last June. The political opposition in the UK is in a mess and the UK economy has performed robustly since the Brexit vote last June. The main opposition party, Labour, have formally supported Brexit in the wake of the referendum, while the much small Liberal Party, is against. The election doesn’t therefore seem likely to derail Brexit. The pound dove on news that PM was to make an announcement, though has recovered most of the losses and held steady when May confirmed the election. Sterling showed gain on the dollar and when averaged against the G3 currencies. The IMF has also raised its 2017 forecast for UK growth to 2.0% from 1.5% forecast in January, and up from the 1.0% growth it was forecast back in October. The IMF still warned that the eventuality of Brexit will dent trade, while there is a risk that Scottish independence will find further impetus as a consequence of the election.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Eurozone CPI – Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.5% and core inflation at just 0.7%. The fall back clearly below the 2% limit in March is partly due to the later timing of Easter this year, which saw holiday related prices rising in April rather than March, so the data doesn’t change the picture of gradually rising headline rates.

    NZD CPI (Q1) – Q1 CPI, expected to reveal a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q4. The annual pace is projected to accelerate from 1.3% y/y in Q4, which would be supportive of our projection for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates steady at 1.75% though year end.

    Japan Trade Balance – In Japan, the March trade report is expected to reveal a narrowed JPY 575.8 bln surplus, versus the revised 813.5 bln in February.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #285
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    Date : 20th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight, as oil recovered some of its recent losses and amid better than expected trade data out of Japan, which underpinned global growth optimism. U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, U.K. stock futures continue to underperform and remain in the red as ongoing Sterling strength weighs on the index. Elsewhere in Europe stock markets already moved higher yesterday and are likely to join the global stock rebound, which is likely to keep upward pressure on core European yields. Gilt futures have been underperforming in tandem with the FTSE 100 in recent days and in the Eurozone spreads are coming in, as policy markets indicate that its too early for a change in central bank policy thus laying the ground for a steady hand policy decision next week. French markets remain jittery ahead of Sunday’s election, which is turning into a four-way race. Today’s calendar is quiet. Germany has PPI inflation at the start of the session, the Eurozone releases construction output data and there is supply from Spain and France.

    German PPI inflation steady at 3.1% y/y in March, unchanged from the previous month. Energy prices dropped over the month in March and contributed to a large extend to the steady headline rate. Excluding energy, however, PPI accelerated markedly to 2.6% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month and versus just 0.6% y/y in December. Clearly underlying inflation pressures are making a comeback, and more so in Germany than in some other parts of the Eurozone and while it is clear that the majority at the ECB doesn’t want to remove the insurance policy against geo-political risks and the flaring up of the debt crisis yet, the discussion about tapering and a gradual removal of the ECB’s policy support won’t go away.

    Fed’s Beige Book repeated the economy rose at a modest to moderate pace, as is the usual characterization. Manufacturing grew at a modest to moderate clip, as did employment, though the labor market remains tight. Modest wage increases broadened, and there were bigger increases for skilled workers. Prices rose modestly with input prices generally outpacing gains in selling prices. Consumer spending was varied, with stronger auto sales somewhat offset by softer non-auto retail spending. Residential construction spending accelerated somewhat, even as home sales slowed, partly on a lack of inventory. Nonresidential construction remained strong, but became more mixed in some regions. The report surely keeps the Fed in play, but there’s no urgency for a hike next month, especially given some uncertainties noted over fiscal policy.

    The UK parliament voted in favour of the June 8 election, a formality that had been widely anticipated following the prime minister’s calling of it. The vote was 522 to 13. The pound was consolidating gains since Tuesday, following the PM’s call for a snap election. The thinking in markets is that the Tory Party would likely win a much a bigger majority than present, if polls are to be believed, which would give the Prime Minister much more flexibility in upcoming negotiations with the EU. May will also have three years clear after actual Brexit in 2019 before having to hold a general election, which pundits reckon will also give her much greater leeway in forming a possible transitional trade agreement with the EU.

    Main Macro Events Today

    U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Claims data for the week of April 15 are out today and should post an increase to 240k from 234k last week and 235k the week prior. Claims continue to remain remarkably tight.

    U.S. Philly Fed Index – The April Philly Fed expected to decline to 25.0 from 32.8 in March and 43.3 in February. The Empire State is already out and posted a decline to 5.2 from 16.4 in March.

    BOE Gov. Carney – BOE Gov. Carney speech starts at 12:30 GMT at the Institute of International Finance Policy Summit, in Washington DC.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #286
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    Date : 21st April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight, with Japan outperformed as the Yen weakened following indications from BoJ Governor Kuroda that he will keep the accommodative policy in place. Hopes of progress on Trump’s tax reform following comments from Treasury Secretary Munchin helped to underpin gains elsewhere. The move higher in Asia followed gains in the U.S. yesterday, but it remains to be seen how European markets, which mostly managed to close slightly higher, while the French CAC rallied on hopes that Macron will emerge as the winner in Sunday’s election, will react to the latest shootings in France. The EUR seemed little phased, but to close to the election, the incident could underpin support for Le Pen’s hard line stance in what already looks like a very tight race. US. and U.K. stock futures are higher and oil prices are also extending gains with the front end WTI future at USD 52.75 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings out of the Eurozone, which also has current account and BoP data. The U.K. releases retail sales for March.

    FX Update: The majors have continued to hold narrow ranges into the risk event that is Sunday’s French presidential election, which presents polarized risks for the euro. EURUSD is holding in the lower 1.07s, consolidating after failing to sustain yesterday’s run to a three-week high at 1.077. USDJPY has settled around 109.00. The yen was briefly bid following news of the terrorist attack in Paris, which left two police dead, though impact proved limited. The yen subsequently dipped after BoJ’s Governor Kuroda made dovish remarks during an interview with Bloomberg TV, where he said, “we will stick with yield curve control” and that “we think the current pace of purchases and monetary base increase will continue for some time.” The reaffirmation that the BoJ is sticking to its dovish course, which contrasts with the Fed, and even the ECB, was enough to prompt a wave of yen selling, with USDJPY logged an intraday high at 107.42 before impetus faltered, leaving yesterday’s nine-day peal at 109.49 untested.

    U.S. reports: initial jobless claims rose 10k to 244k in the week ended April 15 after slipping 1k to 234k previously, which followed the 24k plunge to 235k for the April 1 week. Continuing claims declined 49k to 1,979k in the April 8 week after dropping 7k to 2,028k previously. That’s a 17-year low. Claims may have been impacted by the Good Friday holiday. Meanwhile, despite the uptick in jobless claims, the data remain near historic lows and reflect a strong labor market, as noted in the Fed’s April Beige Book. U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 10.8 points to 22.0 in April following the 10.5 point drop to 32.8 in March. Those follow the surprisingly strong 19.7 point surge to 43.3 in February which was the highest level since January1984, and compares to the record high of 49.5 in July 1983.

    Main Macro Events Today

    EU PMI – The Easter effect may also have an impact on preliminary PMI readings for April, and manufacturing and services sector numbers differently. Eurozone’s manufacturing readings expected at 56.3 from 56.2, while the services sector number expected to be remain unchanged at 56.0, which should leave the composite marginally at 56.3 from 56.4 in March.

    UK Retail sales – Retail sales for March, expected to decline 0.3% m/m and February’s 1.4% m/m gain. Meanwhile, total Retail Sales are seen slowing to a 3.4% y/y pace in March from 3.7% in February.

    Canadian CPI – CPI, expected to expand 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gasoline prices tracked higher through March. Meanwhile, total CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in March from 2.0% in February. The Bank of Canada expressed cautious optimism that underlying CPI will gradually move back towards the 2% target.

    US PMI & Existing Home Sales – The week rounds out with April Markit PMI and March existing home sales data expected at 2.5% increase in the headline pace to 5.60M from 5.480M in February.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #287
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    Date : 24th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    Geopolitics have continued to dominate global markets long after the June 23 Brexit vote and the November 8 Trump victory. And the emphasis will remain on POLITICS this week too following the outcome of France’s presidential election (round 1), and ahead of a “big announcement” Wednesday from President Trump on his tax plan. Eurozone and especially French markets are likely to take a sigh of relief after Macon managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the French election and Frexit risks subside. Macron will have to wait until the second round on May 7 where he is set to beat Le Pen by a wide margin, before he officially becomes President, but markets are likely to celebrate his victory already today.

    United States: U.S. markets will quickly turn to domestic politics as President Trump plans an announcement Wednesday on his tax code overhaul. However, the White House said late Friday that it would be more of a broad outline, and hence not heavy on details. The economic calendar will generally take a back seat this week. The Advance Q1 GDP report (Friday) should be one of the more interesting releases. Growth is expected to slow to a 1.3% pace, from Q4’s 2.1% pace, and continuing the trend over the last several years of measurable erosion in Q1. More timely data includes the April Dallas Fed index (Monday), the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday), the KC Fed survey (Thursday), and the Chicago PMI (Friday). March new home sales (Tuesday) are forecast falling 1.2% to 585k. Also on Tuesday are the February Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes, with pending home sales due Thursday. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should slip to a still strong 124.0 in April after the surprise surge to 125.6 in March. The final April print on consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected to inch up to 98.5. March durable goods orders (Thursday) are expected to be unchanged. Finally, Q1 ECI (Friday) is forecast holding at a 0.5% pace.

    Canada: Canada awaits the first look at February GDP (Friday), expected to reveal a flat (0.0%) reading after the 0.6% surge in January. But before that, some additional ingredients for the GDP projection will be released, with wholesale shipment figures (Monday) and retails sales (Wednesday). Wholesale shipments are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in February after the 3.3% surge in January. Retail sales are projected to improve 0.1% after the 2.2% jump in January. The industrial product price index (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in March after the 0.1% gain in February. Average weekly earnings for February (Thursday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer for April (Thursday) round out the calendar.

    Europe: Today,Even as the markets will be busy digesting the outcome of the first round of the French Presidential election from Sunday, traders will also have a bumper crop of data to analyze, along with the outcome of the ECB meeting. The outcome of the ECB meeting (Thursday) will also hinge to some extent on the French election result. Growth is picking up and this week’s data round is likely to add further to signs that the recovery is not just strengthening, but broadening, and that the slowing in the March HICP to 1.5% y/y from 2.0% was due to special factors. The very full data calendar has first Q1 GDP readings from France and Spain, as well as more April confidence surveys in the form of the German Ifo and the EMU ESI. There also will be a full round of preliminary April inflation numbers. The French HICP (Friday) is expected to bounce back to 1.7% y/y in April from 1.4%, while the Italian reading (Friday) is seen at 1.7% y/y from 1.4%. Spain’s price figure (Thursday) should rise to a 2.4% y/y clip from 2.1%. These should boost the overall April Eurozone CPI (Friday) to 1.8% y/y, up from 1.5% in s month. Even core inflation will be impacted by the Easter effect. Also on the week’s slate are German March retail sales, import price inflation, and GfK consumer confidence, along with French consumer spending data. The ECB meanwhile publishes the latest bank lending survey on Tuesday.

    UK: Sterling rallied over 2% last week after British PM May called a snap election, which will take place on June 8 and is widely expected to see her Tory Party greatly increase its majority. Market focus will be on incoming polls, and while the main Labor Party opposition is in disarray, there is a risk that the SNP might win the vote strongly at the election, which would increase the odds for Scottish independence. After a quiet week previously, the UK data schedule picks up, highlighted by the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate (Friday) where we expect growth to slow to 0.4% q/q from 0.7%. Other data include the April CBI surveys on industrial trends (Monday) and the distributive sector (Thursday), both of which we expect to show moderation from respective April readings. Overall, the reports are expected to fit an emerging picture of stagnating economic growth, which the ONS stats office, in explaining unexpected weakness in official March retail sales data on Friday, blamed mostly on rising prices and declining real income.

    Japan: Japan’s BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). The Bank is widely expected to keep its very accommodative stance in place with its -0.100% policy rate, while maintaining its control over the yield curve via QE and the asset purchase program. Indeed, BoJ Governor Kuroda confirmed last week that easy policy and steady asset purchases would continue to some time. The data calendar kicks off with March services PPI (Tuesday). That’s followed by the February all-industry index (Wednesday). The balance of releases are out on Friday, beginning with March National CPI, March unemployment, preliminary March industrial production, March personal income is due, along with March PCE, March overall retail sales, March housing starts and March construction orders are also on tap.

    Australia: Australia’s calendar features a double dose of inflation data: Q1 CPI is scheduled for release on Wednesday and Q1 PPI is due out Friday. CPI is expected to expand 0.6% in Q1q/q after the 0.5% gain in Q4, leaving an annual growth rate of 2.2% in Q1 after the 1.5% y/y pace in Q4. The PPI is projected to expand 0.8% in Q1 following the 0.5% rise in Q4. Trade prices for Q1 are due on Thursday, while March private sector credit will be released on Friday.

    New Zealand: New Zealand’s slate has the March trade report, expected to show a NZ$200 mln surplus after the NZ$18 mln deficit in February. Building permits for March are also due Friday.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #288
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    Date : 25th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight. In the absence of further news from North Korea global jitters have abated somewhat and with Macron advancing as the favourite in the runoff to the final round of the election, the focus is turning to corporate earnings, the ECB meeting Thursday, and once again Trump’s tax package. The Nikkei remained underpinned by a weaker Yen, Chinese stocks stabilized, after yesterday’s sell off, while Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and Bund futures, which sold off sharply yesterday as save haven trades were being reversed, already started to stabilize later in the session. Eurozone spreads, which came in sharply yesterday as French and peripheral yields dropped, should also start to stabilize again, especially as more stability in France also means there is less need for Draghi’s insurance policy on rates and QE. Today’s calendar has business confidence data from France, the ECB’s bank lending survey, a German Schatz auction and U.K. borrowing numbers.

    Fed’s Kashkari said bank regulations made ending too-big-to-fail worse by raising compliance costs on small and medium sized lenders. Kashkari is speaking at an investment conference at UCLA. And he noted big banks likely hate his call for a higher capital cushion. Dodd-Frank legislation was probably a net-positive for the system, but looking back on it, he added it wasn’t perfect and didn’t really address too-big-to-fail. He’s not real sure of the benefits of negative rates. While they may have helped spur people to invest and spend more, and save less, he’s simultaneously concerned that the psychological channel of negative rates may scare people. He didn’t really address monetary policy given his speech falls within the FOMC’s 10-day blackout period.

    European markets continued to celebrate Macron’s victory in the first round of the French election during the European session yesterday. Frexit and Eurozone breakup concerns were being priced out, which triggered a broad rally on European stock markets. The FTSE 100 underperformed but still managed to gain more than 2%, and in the Eurozone, it is the Italian MIB rather than the French CAC 40, which is leading the way by rising nearly 4.5%. The revival of risk appetite saw Bund and Gilt yields spiking higher, while Eurozone peripheral yields dropped sharply and spreads came in. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 9.3 bp while the Gilt yield is up 4.1bp. By contrast the French 10-year is down -8.8 bp, the Italian down -4.5 bp, the Spanish down -5.4 bp and the Portuguese a whopping 14.9 bp. At the short end France clearly outperformed and the French yield curve steepened as the 2-year yield lost -11.2 bp . Macron still has to take on Le Pen in the second round of the contest on May 7, but he is tipped to beat the far right, EU critic by a wide margin.

    Main Macro Events Today

    UK Public Borrowing – March’s Public borrowing data is also up today, and expected to go up to 1.5B from 1.1B last time.

    US Consumer Confidence – April consumer confidence is out today and should fall to 124.0 from 125.6 in March and 116.1 in February. Michigan Sentiment rose in its first release, climbing to 98.0 from 96.9 in March and 96.3 in March. However, the IBD/TIPP Poll for April declined to 51.7 from 55.3 in March.

    US New Home Sales – March new home sales data expected at 1.2% headline decline to a 585k pace from 592k in February and 558k in January. The other major housing reports were mixed with starts falling to 1.215 mln from 1.202 mln in February whereas existing home sales rose to 5.710 mln from 5.470 mln in February.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #289
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    Date : 26th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed another broad move higher, after gains on Wall Street yesterday. Hopes for U.S. tax cuts and a weak Yen underpinned a nearly 1% rise in the Yen. Gains in Europe had moderated on Tuesday after the initial rally following the French election result, but global equity markets still seem more relaxed. In the Eurozone though more stability on the political front also means that the pressure on Draghi to change the forward guidance is increasing and a Reuters source story yesterday confirmed that while the ECB may want to wait for the second round in France, it could change tack and start laying the ground for exit strategies at the June Meeting. We don’t expect Draghi to tweak the already announced QE schedule for this year, but real tapering will be on the cards in 2018 and the easing bias is likely to be finally scrapped in June. Today’s calendar is empty. German preliminary HICP, EMU ESI economic confidence and the U.K. CBI retailing survey are all due alongside the ECB meeting tomorrow.

    U.S. reports: revealed a strong data set for housing, confidence and sentiment. For new home sales, we saw a 5.8% March surge to a robust 621k rate after net upward revisions, though the pace remained a tick below the 622k cycle-high in July of 2016 despite the winter weather-lift. Both the FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes rose in February by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. Consumer confidence fell in April to a still-robust 120.3 after a March pop to a 16-year high of 124.9 (was 125.6), as confidence fluctuates around its highest levels since December of 2000. Producer sentiment has remained firm in April despite headline drops, as seen with a Richmond Fed downtick to 20.0 from a 7-year high of 22.0 in March and 17.0 in February, versus a 3-year low of -11.0 last August, and Dallas Fed downtick to 16.8 from 16.9 in March and an 11-year high of 24.5 in February. Treasury receipts thus far in April are slightly disappointing however, with a 7% y/y gain despite a lift from last year’s big capital gains.

    Australia: Today Australia reported a rise in CPI at 0.5% in Q1 (q/q, sa), matching the growth rate in Q4 and undershooting projections. CPI did accelerate to a 2.1% y/y pace in Q1 from the 1.5% y/y rate in Q4. But that was a touch below projections, but does regardless lift the annual rate above 2.0%. The annual core CPI measures improved: the trimmed mean CPI accelerated to a 1.9% y/y clip in Q1 from 1.6%, while the weighted median CPI picked up to a 1.7% rate from a revised 1.4% growth rate in Q4 (was +1.5%). Notably, the trimmed mean is nearing the bottom of the RBA’s 2.0% to 3.0% target band. The report underpins expectations for steady rates from the RBA through the turn of the year. AUDUSD has dropped to 0.7511 from the 0.7545 level seen just ahead of the report.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Canadian Retail Sales – Expected at 0.1% gain in February retail sales values. The report, is expected to reveal a 0.2% dip in the ex-autos sales aggregate. There is more forecast risk than usual around this report, as Statistics Canada will present revised figures going back to 2012 that are based on a new sample for the survey.

    Pr. Trump Tax Announcement – President Trump plans an announcement Wednesday on his tax code overhaul. As Reuters reported that maybe the biggest Tax Cut since he will propose small business partnerships and sole proprietorships to 15% from 39.6 %.

    US Crude Oil Inventories – US Crude Oil Inventories expected to slightly fall to -1.1M from 1M last week.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #290
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    Date : 27th April 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th April 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japan’s stock rally running out of steam and Chinese equities underperforming as Xi stressed that financial security is “strategically important” to the country’s economic and social development, thus adding to signs that the government is stepping up its crackdown on leverage. The BoJ presented an upbeat picture of the economy, but left policy unchanged, giving markets little reason to move as investors digest Trump’s tax plan that was released yesterday. The Nikkei is down -0.19%, CSI 300 down -0.55%, while Hang Seng and ASX manage marginal gains. FTSE 100 futures are down, while U.S. futures are moving higher. In Europe, the focus shifts to the ECB meeting, with Draghi likely to follow the BoJ’s example and refrain from rocking the boat although the hawks will step up their pressure, especially as German and Spanish HICP rates today are set to accelerate, while ESI economic confidence is seen rising further. The calendar also has the U.K. CBI retailing survey. as well as Spanish unemployment and German consumer confidence at the start of the session.

    Trump E.O. on NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) withdrawal is being mulled according to a Politico.com article posted earlier: “The Trump administration is considering an executive order on withdrawing the U.S. from NAFTA, according to two White House officials. A draft order has been submitted for the final stages of review and could be unveiled late this week or early next week, the officials said. The effort, which still could change in the coming days as more officials weigh in, would indicate the administration’s intent to withdraw from the sweeping pact by triggering the timeline set forth in the deal.” Additionally, House Freedom Caucus endorses the revised ACA repeal plan, noting “while the revised version still does not fully repeal Obamacare, we are prepared to support it to keep our promise to the American people to lower health-care costs.” It was the very conservative Freedom Caucus that generally derailed President Trumps initial plan. So far this week equity markets have gotten bullish news from France, taxes, and now the ACA. Wall Street remains in the green, but gains are limited so far after the surges on Monday, Tuesday, although a close here on the S&P at 2,398 would be a new record high. This latest news should particularly benefit healthcare and insurance stocks.

    U.S. NEC Director Cohn is introducing the Trump tax cuts with some historic comparisons, as rates and the system are stuck at 1986 levels even as other countries have gotten more competitive and gone to a territorial basis. He will hand over the podium to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin next. There will be 3 brackets, 10%, 25% and 35% (reduced from 7) and double standard deductions, repeal the death tax, tax relief for families with child and dependent care, married couples won’t pay tax on the first $24k in income. They will repeal the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax, with a 15% business tax rate. Home ownership and charitable deductions will be retained, but most other tax breaks will be eliminated.

    Canada: Retail sales volume dip tracks a February GDP stall-out.The 0.1% decline in retail sales volumes followed a 1.4% surge in January and a 0.6% decline in December. A 0.4% decline in wholesale shipment volumes joined the 0.1% gain in manufacturing volumes. Housing starts improved 2.3% to a 214.3k unit pace in February, suggestive of another positive contribution from construction production. Mining, oil and gas production are on track to make a substantial negative contribution to February GDP. The lack of growth in February GDP should be followed by a resumption of activity in March GDP.

    Main Macro Events Today

    ECB Confidence & Rate Decision – Confidence indicators continue to look good, inflation is expected to bounce back with the April reading and Macron’s advance in the French election means Frexit and Eurozone breakup risks seem banned for now. Against that background, the hawks at the ECB council will likely intensify their push for a change in the forward guidance at the council meeting tomorrow and Draghi will be under fresh pressure to at least drop the implicit easing bias.

    ECB meeting – ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference have been scheduled for 12:30 GMT today.

    US Durable Goods – March durable goods orders are expected to be unchanged (i.e. 1.2%) following February’s 1.7% increase, on top of the 2.3% January gain which were supported by transportation.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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