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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #581
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    Date : 14th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields jumped higher from the off and as of 06:19 GMT, are up 1.8 bp at 0.326%, underperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which showed rates rising 1.6 bp and 1.0 bp respectively. Stronger than expected growth numbers at the start of the session added pressure on Bunds, after core yields already started to back up again as stock markets stabilized and Turkey jitters receded somewhat. Japanese markets bounced back overnight and European stock futures are moving higher alongside US futures. Bundesbank’s Wuermeling suggested one should not “over dramatize” the risk of Turkey contagion, adding that ECB didn’t see the need for a risk meeting so far. As long as there is not a further dramatic escalation, the turbulence is not expected to derail ECB’s course towards a phasing out of QE. Already released German July HICP was confirmed at 2.1% y/y. Still to come are German ZEW confidence, the 2nd reading of Q2 Eurozone GDP and UK labour market data.

    FX Update: Safe haven positioning were unwound some today, which saw the Dollar and Yen traded softer against most other currencies after Ankara managed to halt the rout of the Lira, which in turn brought a reprieve in still-fragile global markets. Most stock markets found a footing in Asia, and USA500 futures are showing a 0.3% gain, reversing most of yesterday’s regular-session’s losses, though Chinese markets were an exception, declining after a batch of economic data showed the economy to have hit a rough patch, while investment growth was shown to have reached a record low. EURUSD settled around the 1.1400 mark, above yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1365. USDJPY recouped back toward the 111.0 level after posting a seven-week low at 110.11 yesterday. PBoC set the reference rate for USDCNY at 6.8695, versus 6.8629 yesterday. China’s statistics bureau said that the weaker Yuan, which has declined the most against the Dollar since April on record (in the era of the prevailing regime), and perhaps aiming to counter the wrath of President Trump, was a reflection of the Fed’s tightening cycle. AUDUSD firmed above 0.7770, finding a footing after 3 consecutive days of declines. Australia data showing business confidence rising provided the Aussie a supporting influence.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Average Earnings Index – Expectations – Average Household Earnings expected to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior.

    * UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The labour report expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June.

    * Eurozone GDP – Expectations – Eurozone Q2 GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.

    * German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – A slight improvement is anticipated in the headline number to -24.0, from -24.7 in the previous month.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #582
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    Date : 15th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp in early trade at 0.318%, underperforming versus Treasuries and JGBs which lost -1.4 bp and -1.1 bp respectively as risk aversion picked up again during the Asian session. Turkey slapped additional tax on American goods rather than trying to defuse the situation and the central bank is still shying away from a rate hike to stabilize the currency. Stocks were under pressure in Japan and China and US futures are also heading south, but European futures are moving higher in opening trade after strong growth data out of the Eurozone yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on UK inflation data and events include a German 30-year auction. Italy is closed for a public holiday.

    FX Update: The Dollar has posted broad gains amid a backdrop of rekindling risk aversion. Turkey’s Erdogan escalated the confrontation with the US by announcing tariffs on US cars, alcohol and cigarettes. Chinese stocks came under pressure again, and PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.8856, the highest since May 2017, up from yesterday’s fixing at 6.8695. Both the Bank of Indonesia and HKMA have intervened to support their respective currencies. The USDIndex posted a 14-month high at 96.87 while EURUSD concurrently printed a 13-month low at 1.1316. Cable traded below 1.2700 for the first time since June 2017, and AUDUSD fell to its lowest levels since January 2017. USDJPY posted an eight-day high of 111.43 amid a broader bid for the Dollar, though a weakening in stock markets in Asia capped gains, which stimulated Yen safe-haven demand.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Consumer Price Index – Expectations – CPI expected to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July.

    * US Retail Sales – Expectations – July retail sales headlines expected at a 0.3% increase, with a 0.5% ex-auto gain. That would be a positive start to Q3.

    * US Industrial Production and Empire Index- Expectations – July industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #583
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    Date : 16th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

    FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

    * US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

    * US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #584
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    Date : 17th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    FX Update: USDJPY has continued to trade with little direction, lodged in the upper 110.00s. Ditto for the Yen crosses today, which are trading at about the same levels they were this time yesterday. Stock markets have remained stable, and PBoC lifted the Yuan’s at the fixing today, which prompted a bid, albeit modest, for the Australian Dollar. There is a feeling of wariness behind the calm, with the recent strength of the Dollar having exposed vulnerabilities in a number of emerging world economies that have a high proportion of borrowing in the U.S. currency (Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina, among others). Markets are also looking to next week’s new round of “low level” talks between the US and China on trade with some skepticism going on given recent failed attempts for dialogue.

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.879%, while JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to 0.087% as stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia after a strong close on Wall Street. Earnings reports and trade talk hopes helped to lift sentiment in the US, with most markets in Asia, ex China, posting gains. The Topix is up 0.67%, the Nikkei 0.42% and the Hang Seng managed a gain of 0.58% so far. Mainland China bourses underperformed, however, and the CSI 300 lost -0.56%, the Shanghai Comp -0.35%, amid lingering concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, with bonds underperforming and the 10-year yield jumping 4.3 bp. Trade talks with the US may be resuming but Trump stressed that the US is not going to any agreement until they get a “better deal” that is “fair”, signalling that he continues to push for more concessions. US futures are trading mixed with gains in the Dow Jones future contrasting with losses in S&P and NASDAQ futures. Oil prices meanwhile are little changed and the September contract is trading at USD 65.45 per barrel.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Euro Area Consumer Price Index – expected come out at 2.1% YoY in July, same as last month. Core CPI should also remain stable at 1.1%.

    * Canada Consumer Price Index – both CPI and the Bank of Canada core CPI for July are expected to remain stable at 2.5% and 1.3% respectively.

    * US Consumer Sentiment – forecast of a small rise in the August index to 98 compared to 97.8 in July.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #585
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    Date : 20th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    Turkey, trade, and tariffs dominated the headlines last week, though so far it’s difficult to quantify any real economic effects. Negative references to tariffs were widespread in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and have been noted in the Fed’s Beige Book. Trump warned that the US would not take the issue “sitting down,” with the Treasury prepping more sanctions/tariffs and rating agencies downgrading Turkish debt to “junk” rating. Also, the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins on Thursday, with Chair Powell’s keynote address Friday. The global data calendar is thin and will keep the focus on other exogenous and geopolitical factors.

    Sino-US trade talks will resume this week with “low level” talks scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Just the whiff of a resumption in negotiations was sufficient to staunch a probe below 25k in the Dow and 2.8k in the S&P 500 last week. While any major breakthrough on the thorny issue seems doubtful in the near term, reports of a possible Trump-Xi summit helped boost Wall Street further heading into the weekend. The WSJ indicated negotiators are working on a “road map” for talks on trade issues that could end with a meeting between the two leaders at multilateral summits in November. That may not forestall the next round of $200 bln in US tariffs on Chinese products by month-end, though substantive progress could buy some time. Note that Mexico cited progress on NAFTA negotiations and hopes for a conclusion mid-week, pending lingering issues on the rules of origin in the auto sector. A breakthrough on Mexico/NAFTA represents a very bullish signaling risk.

    United States: The week of August 20 will be relatively light on the US data front, but the minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting (Wednesday) will likely be of interest to market participants for any indications regarding the future course of policy. Markets see FOMC on course to raise rates two more times this year, in September and December, barring any shocks to the economy. Regarding the data, existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rise following declines in the prior three months. New home sales (Thursday) are also expected to rise, partially reversing June weakness.

    FOMC minutes to the latest policy meeting aren’t likely to contain much for the markets as there weren’t any surprises from policymakers. As expected, the Fed left policy on hold with an 8-0 vote. The statement did include an upgrade to the growth outlook, consistent with what had been seen in the data leading up to the meeting. Growth was characterized as “strong,” up from the “solid” at the June 12-13 meeting. Inflation was said to have moved “close” to the 2% target. Rate guidance was repeated with Fed saying “gradual increases in the target range with the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion in economic activity.” Fed also reiterated risks to the outlook appear “roughly balanced.” The policy statement did not include any comments on trade frictions and tariffs, but these were likely discussed. However, other than the potential for slower growth and higher inflation, both of which have been mentioned in Beige Book reports, the discussion will most likely be hypothetical at this stage. Mexico’s Economy Minister hoped to finish up bilateral issues with the US on NAFTA by the middle of this week, citing most issues as “advancing well” as talks continue. An agreement with Mexico on NAFTA would be the first significant trade deal for Trump after stepping up pressure on allies and foes alike.

    Canada: Bank of Canada speakers feature this week, as Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and Governor Poloz participate in panel discussions. However, markets expect that the appearances this week are unlikely to offer any fresh policy insights – Wilkins (Monday) will participate in a panel discussion at the Central Bank Research Association, Frankfurt, Germany. Poloz is in Jackson Hole on Saturday (August 25) participating in a panel at the Fed’s annual gathering. The Bank will announce rates on September 5. Expectations suggest that BoC will look past the 3.0% y/y rise in July CPI amid temporary factors (seasonal jump in travel tour prices was a stand-out) and core inflation measures that are holding at 2.0%.

    Europe: Market jitters continue with Turkey contagion risks and Sino-US trade relations remaining in focus and overshadowing the data calendar. ECB starts to slowly return from the summer break and Bundesbank President Weidmann will attend a Foreign Press Club in Berlin on Thursday. However, markets do not expect ECB to turn dovish, despite the renewed widening of Eurozone spreads and the spike in Italian yields. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, is expected to come out on Thursday as well.

    The latest sell-off in Italian assets was to a large extent related to confrontational comments from Deputy Prime Minister Salvini, who implied that EU deficit rules were partly to blame for the Genoa bridge disaster as they prevented necessary maintenance. The rise in Italian yields is less a speculative attack as markets fear that the populist government could be flirting with an exit from the monetary union. Italy appears to be more sensitive to Turkey contagion, while the country’s effective exposure may suggest this is also related to political resistance to severing the link between bank and government debt, which remains higher in Italy than in other major Eurozone countries. Italy may still need ECB, but the country is also a litmus test for the view that a too accommodative ECB policy is reducing the kind of market pressure that forces governments to implement structural reforms.

    UK: The calendar is relatively light this week, though Brexit negotiations, which recommenced last Thursday after a summer hiatus, will continue and will likely generate some potentially market-moving headlines. As has usually been the case, anything that points towards a no-deal exit from the EU could be taken as a Sterling selling cue, and anything suggesting that a deal can be worked out could be taken as a Sterling buying cue. Cable last week racked up a sixth consecutive week of declines, with political and associated Brexit-related risks keeping the Pound in a lower trading band. Latvia’s foreign minister said on Friday that there was a 50-50 chance for a no-deal Brexit, which UK’s foreign minister Hunt concurred with, remarking that “time is running out.” The main data this week are monthly government borrowing figures (Tuesday), the August CBI surveys for industrial trends (Tuesday), and distributive sales (Thursday).

    Japan: Consensus expects that the June all-industry index (Wednesday) will increase 0.3% m/m versus the prior 0.1% increase. The July inflation data will be the week’s focal point. The national CPI (Friday) consensus forecast suggests a rise to a 0.4% y/y rate from 0.7% last month, while core inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.6% y/y. Inflation still remains well below BoJ’s 2% target.

    Australia: RBA governor Lowe (Tuesday) is expected to speak at an Australian Securities and Investments Commission event. Assistant Governor (Financial Services) Debelle will also speak about low inflation at the Economic Society of Australia Business Luncheon on Wednesday.

    New Zealand: Retail sales will be out on Tuesday, with imports, exports and the trade balance expected to come out on Friday.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #586
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    Date : 21st August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.4 bp at 2.833%, as the USD weakened 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp at 0.083% and yields picked up in Australia and New Zealand. Reuters reported that Trump accused China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, which followed on the heels of comments lamenting Fed’s rate hikes. Asian stock markets are mostly higher after muted gains on Wall Street yesterday. Japanese indices moved up from early lows as the Yen weakened and while the Topix is still down -0.27%, the Nikkei is up 0.20%. The Hang Seng gained 0.37%, while mainland China indices continued to outperform as state-backed funds were seen buying stocks to help stabilize the market. The CSI 300 is up 1.84%, and the Shanghai Comp 1.39% higher. US equity futures are posting small gains. Things may look more stable on the surface and Turkish markets at least are closed now for the rest of the week, but EM jitters continue as Venezuela’s 95% devaluation takes hold.

    FX Update: The Fed has become an unexpected focus due to the president’s remarks regarding Chairman Powell, along with comments from FOMC voter Bostic, both in front of the FOMC minutes of the latest policy meeting due Wednesday, the Jackson Hole symposium beginning Thursday, and Powell’s speech on Friday. Reports that Trump again commented on his Fed chairman, wanting a less hawkish stance, along with WSJ’s indication that Fed is debating the speed of its QE unwind, knocked yields lower and led to an apparent squeeze at the long end amid warnings of a record speculative short position in the 10- and 30-year maturities. Intermediate and longer dated yields are down over 4 bps, with the 5-year challenging 2.70% and the 10-year testing 2.80%, while the long bond has slipped further below the 3% level, even as Wall Street extends gains.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – net borrowing is expected to have decreased in July by GBP2.3bln, compared to an increase of GBP4.5bln last month.

    * New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 – retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% on a QoQ basis, compared to an increase of 0.1% last quarter.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #587
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    Date : 23rd August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2018.




    FX News Today

    FX Update: The Dollar has lifted after five straight down sessions. The USD index (DXY) is showing a 0.3% gain heading into the London open, at 95.41, rising above yesterday’s high but remains well below the 14-month high seen last week at 96.98. EURUSD has concurrently sunk to a two-day low of 1.1542, putting in some distance from yesterday’s two-week peak at 1.1623. USDJPY has also been on the up, printing an eight-day high of 110.93, and extending the rebound from Monday’s eight-week low at 109.77. Wall Street finished moderately yesterday, and US500 futures are presently flat, while US Treasury yields are lower. Fed funds futures are showing 50-50 odds for a 25 bp hike in December. There is conjecture among Fed watchers that Chairman Powell will retain a hawkish tone in his keynote speech on Friday, despite President Trump’s calls for looser policy. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has taken a tumble amid political turmoil regarding leadership challenges faced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. AUDUSD has lost over 0.7% in falling to six-day lows under 0.7300.

    FOMC minutes: The most important point in the minutes was that “many participants” believed another hike would be appropriate “soon”, which could be interpreted as an indication for a September tightening. Participants noted that the funds rate was moving closer to the range of estimate of a neutral level, with a number of participants emphasizing uncertainty in estimates of that level, and agreeing that “accommodative” language may no longer be appropriate fairly soon. Participants generally noted the strength of the economy in Q2, as well as favorable factors that were supporting above-trend growth, including financial conditions. But “several” stressed that transitory factors may have played a role, including an outsized increase in exports. All officials viewed trade as an “important source of uncertainty.” There was some discussion regarding firms having greater scope to increase prices due to strong demand or rising input costs. There was also talk over the implications of the flattening yield curve. The minutes indicated that balance sheet discussions would continue in the fall.

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.813% and 10-year JGBs fell back -0.2 bp to 0.083% amid a wider decline in Asian rates. Australian bonds outperformed as the ASX declined and AUD weakened as Prime Minister Turnbill faces leadership challenges. Elsewhere, stock markets traded mostly mixed, with mainland China and Hang Seng underperforming. Topix and Nikkei posted marginal gains of 0.02% and 0.18%, while Hang Seng and CSI were down -0.83% and -0.59% respectively as of 05:18GMT. The additional US and China tariffs come into effect in the middle of ongoing trade talks and China said it will lodge a complaint with the WTO. US stock futures are heading south after a mixed close yesterday and with the Fed minutes confirming that further rate hikes remain on the cards, but also showing some concern about the impact of possible prolonged trade battles. Markets are also looking ahead to the Jackson Hole meeting amid political risks for Trump from the legal battles of his former advisors.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Jackson Hole Symposium – The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is a forum for the top central bankers, policy experts and academics of the world who come together to discuss policy issues. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. This year’s topic relates to the changing market structure and its implications for monetary policy. Most awaited speech is by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

    * ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – The accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, aim to provide an overview of financial, economic and monetary developments aimed to provide the rationale behind policy decisions. Currency response depends on the accounts’ content.

    * US Jobless Claims – Consensus forecasts expect that claims will increase slightly compared to last week.

    * New Zealand Trade Balance – Trade balance expected to deteriorate in July, registering a $0.5bln decline.

    * Japan Consumer Price Index – CPI expected to decline and stand at about 0.4% YoY, compared to 0.7% last month.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #588
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    Date : 27th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th August 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    Fed Chairman Powell justified the FOMC’s gradualist approach to monetary policy in his Jackson Hole speech. He emphasized the uncertain nature of the two key policy variables — the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral real rate of interest. And in noting the difficulty in using them as navigational tools, he also solidified Greenspan’s risk management strategy still in effect today around the world as central bankers attempt to balance the risks of moving too quickly and choking off growth, or too slowly and allowing a destabilizing overheating.

    United States: US markets rallied to end the week on a positive note after Chairman Powell showed no willingness to take on a more hawkish stance, even in the face of sustained strength in economic activity. And what’s more important, he doesn’t see signs of any overheating and suggested it might be prudent to look beyond inflation for signs of excesses. That means the FOMC need not become more hawkish but can maintain its gradualism policy stance. The USA500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs in the process.

    Though the US economy continues to diverge from the rest of the world, its strength can help support Asian and European strength in the US, along with an ongoing accommodative posture from ECB and BoJ, remain supportive meanwhile, continuing to support global gains. There are several data releases of interest this week, including the second look at GDP, along with income and PCE, but none will alter the general outlook. Also highlighting this week is July personal income and consumption (Thursday), which will help fine tune GDP forecasts. It also includes the FOMC’s favoured inflation guide, the PCE deflator. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should rise to 128.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and this trend is expected to continue over coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. Preliminary August Michigan sentiment (Friday) is likely to slip down.

    Canada: In Canada, GDP is the highlight, with data out for June and Q2. June GDP (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% surge in May. Q2 real GDP (Thursday) is anticipated to grow 3.2% (q/q, saar), accelerating from the 1.3% rate of expansion in Q1. A pick-up in consumption spending and a positive contribution from net exports should drive Q2 GDP growth. A 3.2% Q2 GDP gain would overshoot BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet growth looks to moderate in Q3 and the details of the Q2 GDP report should align with the Bank’s views, suggesting that the report will not threaten policy gradualism. The current account (Wednesday) is seen running a -C$15.0 bln deficit in Q2 from -C$19.5 bln in Q1 as the goods trade deficit narrowed. The July industrial product price index (Friday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer sentiment index (Thursday) round out the docket. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

    Europe: ECB’s unofficial summer break is slowly coming to an end and on their return officials will face an increasingly uncertain world that is bound to fuel diversions of opinion at the council. Trade jitters, Brexit risks and the potential fallout from Turkey’s troubles are only part of the multitude of risks that have underpinned volatility on peripheral bond markets and seen Italian officials in particular calling on ECB to scrap the planned phasing out of net asset purchases.

    The lack of reform will further undermine competitiveness and growth potential going forward at a time, when external risks are mounting. Indeed, despite still positive growth rates, the Eurozone is not well equipped to deal with another major crisis, as ECB has much less room to maneuver this time around. Data releases this week are likely to confirm the overall picture of ongoing economic expansion and a gradual pick up in underlying inflation. French Q2 GDP (Wednesday), is likely to be confirmed at just 0.2% q/q and the Italian reading (Friday) also at just 0.2% q/q leaving the focus on the more forward looking confidence indicators, which come in the form of the German Ifo (Monday) and the European Commission’s ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday). Against that background, the German official unemployment numbers (Thursday) are expected to drop a further -3K in August, which should leave the adjusted jobless rate at a very low 5.2%. The Eurozone unemployment rate remains considerably higher, but has been falling steadily and we expect a further decline to 8.2% with the July reading (Thursday), from 8.3% in June. Preliminary German HICP (Thursday) is seen steady at 2.1% y/y and French HICP (Friday) is expected to fall back marginally to 2.5% ) from 2.6%.

    UK: UK markets are closed today for the UK’s latest August public holiday. Political and associated Brexit-related risks remain in play, manifested mostly in the forex market by keeping the Pound in a lower trading band than it would be otherwise. The UK government last week issued advice for individuals and businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which, while apparently aiming to put to rest some of the scare stories that have been circulating in the populace, served to bring home the level of disruption this scenario would have on businesses. Time is running out for negotiations to avoid the no-deal scenario, with October’s EU leaders’ summit being the agreed on deadline. A “known unknown” wildcard is the risk that Prime Minister May will face as a leadership challenge in coming weeks. This week’s data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the publication of monthly lending and money supply figures by BoE (Thursday) and the latest Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday).

    Japan: The calendar doesn’t get underway until Thursday, when July retail sales are due. Sales are expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y pace of contraction from 1.5% for large retailers, but accelerate slightly to a 1.8% y/y clip overall, from 1.7% previously. The remainder of data come on Friday. Tokyo August CPI should tick up to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% overall, and remain steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. July unemployment is expected steady at 2.4%, with the job offers/seekers ratio a touch higher at 1.63 from 1.62. July industrial production is penciled in rebounding 0.5% m/m versus the prior 2.1% decline. July housing starts and July construction orders are also due.

    China: China reveals the official August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Friday), which is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2 in July, and is down from 51.9 in May. The markets will keep a close eye on the data as signs of slowing in manufacturing have been a worrying development in the last couple of months and especially as the tariff frictions have escalated.

    Australia: A sparse slate has private capital expenditures and building permits on Friday. Private capital expenditures are expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. Building permits are projected to fall 3.0% in July after the 6.4% gain in June. There is nothing scheduled from RBA this week. The next event is the September 4 policy meeting, where we expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting.

    New Zealand: Building permits for July (Thursday) are the lone highlight. RBNZ provided dovish forward guidance this month along with no change in rates, saying rates will be steady through to 2020.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #589
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    Date : 28th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields pared some of their earlier gains and are down -0.2 bp on the day at 2.844%, 10-year JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp but at 0.088% also down from earlier highs as the buoyant mood on equities starts to fade and the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Asian stock markets still benefited from hopes for a bilateral trade deal between the US and Mexico and mostly extended yesterday’s gains after a strong close on Wall Street. Questions over where the deal will leave Canada seem to limit the room for further gains however, as investors clamour for detail. Topix and Nikkei are still up 0.26% and 0.19% respectively, but off highs. The Hang Seng managed to hang on to a modest 0.17% gain, while mainland China underperformed with CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.19% and -0.12% respectively. US futures are slightly higher, Oil prices fell back from highs above USD 69 per barrel.

    FX Update: USDJPY flipped back above 111.00, continuing an oscillation of this level for a third consecutive session, holding below the three-week high that was printed on Friday at 111.48. Yen crosses have been more buoyant, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, posting respective 4- and 3-week highs during the Tokyo AM session, although both crosses have since come off by between 20 and 30 pips. The Yen’s overall weakness has been concomitant with the USA500 closing at a record high yesterday and generally upbeat tone in global equity markets. Yield differentials remains a fundamental bullish driver for USDJPY, but the risks being posed by the US-China trade war, which doesn’t so far show any signs of cooling in the wake of the US-Mexican agreement in principle, has been capping upside potential in recent months, which is expected to remain the case. Regarding the US-China trade situation, Trump in the wake of his stage-managed Mexico announcement) that “it’s just not the right time to talk right now.” USDJPY has resistance at 111.48-50 and 112.15, and support at 110.93-95.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – Expectations – expected to remain unchanged at 6.5% y/y for June.

    * US Consumer confidence – Expectations – Consumer confidence should rise to 127.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and we expect this trend to continue over the coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics.

    * US Goods Trade Balance – Expectations – The advance indicators for July should show a deterioration in the Trade Balance for Goods to -$70.5 bln (-$68.5 bln) after widening for the first time in four months to -$67.9 bln in June.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #590
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    Date : 29th August 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th August 2018.




    FX News Today

    FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer overall, although it has continued to hold steady in a narrow range against the Yen. USDCAD dropped to its lowest level since June 6, at 1.2887, driven by reports that Canada is ready to make significant concessions on diary to secure a trade deal with the US. This is potentially good news as it raises the chances for Congress to approve the White House agreement with Mexico in the context of a revamped NAFTA deal. Elsewhere, EURUSD extended yesterday’s correction from the four-week peak at 1.1733, posting a 1.1674 low. AUDUSD fell to a two-day low at 0.7308, and Cable has seen a two-day low at 1.2854, with the Pound so far unaffected by news reports that the UK and the EU are likely to further push the deadline for a Brexit agreement to mid-November rather than October’s EU summit. USDJPY, in contrast to other Dollar pairs, has posted less than a 20 pip range so far in the Tokyo trading, defined by 111.13 and 111.31, which continues a phase of tight consolidative price action into a fourth consecutive session. EURJPY and other Yen crosses, meanwhile, have declined moderately. PBoC set the USDCNH reference at 6.8072, fractionally up on yesterday’s 6.8052.

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp at 2.871%, pulling back from highs slightly over 2.85% yesterday. JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp at 0.089%, but also off earlier highs. Wall Street closed with marginal gains yesterday after the US500 pulled back from record highs over the 2900 mark, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.13% respectively amid optimism over U.S. growth after an improvement in consumer sentiment. Mainland China bourses are in the red, however, with investors remaining cautious despite reports that Canada is willing to make considerable concessions to secure a trade deal amid ongoing concerns over China-US trade prospects. As treasury yields are approaching 2.9% rate-sensitive shares start to feel the pressure. The Hang Seng moved sideways, while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.47% and -0.33% respectively. US futures are moving higher, though while oil prices are down.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * US Q2 GDP results (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the week. The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. Usually, high growth or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. GDP growth is expected to remain at the same levels as the previous quarter.

    * Canadian Current Account Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian current account balance for Q2 is expected, on the basis of consensus forecasts, to improve significantly from -19.5 bln to -15.2 bln. Usually, the more positive the better for the currency.

    * Retail trade for July (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The index captures the aggregate sales made for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy, but consensus expectations is that July trade will decrease by 0.3%.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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