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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #591
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    Date : 03rd September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 03rd September 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    A shorter week – due to a holiday – for the US and Canada will resume on Tuesday, rather appropriately, as they both take a “time out” from trade talks, which will restart on Wednesday. The 90-day clock was set in motion by the Trump team, which notified Congress of its intent to sign a deal with Mexico, while still holding the door ajar for Canada. The deadline for public comment on the next round of $200 bln in tariffs on China also looms on Thursday, keeping trade as a focal point for the ambivalent markets to kick off the month of September. Emerging markets remain fragile as well, as the firmer Dollar, rising rates and global protectionism fears take a toll on sentiment.

    United States: Employment will be the focus for the markets in the week of September 3. For the US economic calendar, front and center will be Friday’s employment report, which is estimated to rise at 210k payrolls in August, following a tepid 157k gain in July. The jobless rate should slip to 3.8% from 3.9%. Overall, conditions in the labor market continue to be solid. Other data will include the ISM index (Tuesday) estimated to slip to 58.0 in August from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February. Also, construction spending should rise 0.4% in July, partially reversing a weak -1.1% reading in June that followed strong gains of 1.3% and 1.7% in May and April respectively. Vehicle sales are expected to rise to 17.0 mln (Tuesday) from a 16.7 mln pace in July. The July sales rate reflected slowing car and truck sales, and in August we see a rebound in both. MBA mortgage data is due (Tuesday), along with the trade deficit expected to widen to -$49.8 bln in July, from -$46.3 bln. The ADP employment survey (Thursday) is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July. A boost is expected in Q2 productivity growth to 3.1% from 2.9%, with an associated upward revision to output growth to 5.0% from 4.8%, thanks to the upward revision to Q2 GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.1%, along with -0.8% in unit labor costs from -0.9%.

    Canada: This week is highlighted by Bank of Canada’s announcement (Wednesday), which it is widely expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to “transitory factors.” GDP came in close to expectations for Q2, expanding 2.9% (BoC expected +2.8%). Economic data features August employment (Friday), seen rising 10.0k after the 54.1k gain in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, matching July’s. The July trade report (Wednesday) is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1. Building permits number (Thursday) is projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June. The Ivey PMI for August is due Friday. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks on Thursday, presenting an economic progress report. A BoC official now presents forecast updates a day or so after the four announcements per year that do not correspond with the release of the Monetary Policy Report.

    Europe: Trade risks and tariffs are back in focus, as ECB officials return from holidays. With the recovery still on, but risks from tariffs and Brexit clouding over the outlook, the council seems increasingly split on the timing and speed of policy normalization. With the end of Draghi’s term coming into sight, support for a less dovish central bank head may be gathering strength against that background. For now though, ECB speakers including Praet (Wednesday), Lautenschlaeger (Thursday) and Mersch (Monday) are likely to stick to the official line and promote patience, prudence, and persistence in monetary policy.

    The data calendar this week includes final PMI readings as well German orders and production data for July, however data is not expected to fundamentally change the overall picture or outlook. Manufacturing (Monday) and services PMIs (Wednesday) are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4. Both sectors continue to expand and job creation continues, although growth momentum is slowing down and uncertainty about the outlook is leaving its mark, as export order growth, in particular, continues to slow down. German manufacturing orders (Thursday) already slumped -4.0% m/m in June and we expect at least a partial rebound in the July numbers and a rise of 1.8% m/m. Similarly, production (Friday) is seen rising 0.4% m/m, after the -0.9% m/m contraction in June. The July IFO reading jumped higher and German PMIs remain at robust levels, which suggests a solid Q3 GDP number and the recovery in orders and production numbers, if confirmed, will verify that the German recovery remains intact. More up-to-date survey and manufacturing numbers are likely to overshadow the detailed reading of Eurozone Q2 GDP (Friday), which is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, with the breakdown expected to prove that domestic demand was the main driver of growth. Accelerating import growth meanwhile is keeping a light on net exports.

    UK: Brexit will remain front and center as negotiations return to full swing this week following the summer holiday season. On the data front, the economic calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the August PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI is expected (Monday) to come in at 53.8 after 54.0 in the month prior. Construction PMI (Tuesday) has us anticipating a dip to 55.0 following July’s 55.8. As for the services PMI (Wednesday), a rise has been forecast to 53.8 from July’s 55.5 reading. As-expected readings wouldn’t likely have much impact on markets, which are presently predisposed to be most sensitive to any downside surprises given the backdrop of prevailing Brexit uncertainties and worries about global trade protectionism.

    Japan: The August services PMI is due Wednesday. It fell to 51.3 in July, and was 51.6 a year ago. July personal income and consumption data are due Friday. The latter is expected to post a 1.0% y/y decline versus the prior -1.2% and has been in contraction since February.

    China: The August services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 52.5, after tumbling 1.1 points to 52.8 in July. It was at 52.7 a year ago.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #592
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    Date : 04th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 04th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Treasury and JGB yields are little changed at 2.86% and 0.10% respectively, as stocks drifted during the Asian session after yesterday’s holiday in the US. Trade concerns and emerging market jitters remain in focus, with the difficult Canada and US talks, and Trump’s latest round of China tariffs high on the agenda. The latter could be announced as early as Thursday. Argentina and Turkey meanwhile are still struggling to regain investor confidence. Turkey’s central bank yesterday vowed to take action, as inflation hit 18%, sparking hopes that the long awaited rate hike will finally come. Argentina, meanwhile, launched fresh measures to stem the crisis. RBA left rates unchanged as expected, but estimated that the economy grew above trend in the first six months of the year and suggested inflation will pick up from 2019.

    FX Update: The Dollar has traded generally firmer. EURUSD has dipped back under 1.1600, while the Cable has fallen to a one-week low of 1.2843, extending the Pound-driven losses of yesterday after the EU’s Brexit negotiator Barnier all-but rejected the British government’s proposed plan for a new trading deal. The Sterling has also posted fresh lows against the Euro and other currencies. USDJPY has lifted to a three-session high of 111.37, flipping back above the midway mark of the recent range, while AUDJPY, which was a big loser yesterday, has bounced back amid a 1%-plus rally in Chinese equity markets. The Australian Dollar, which has been correlating strongly with Chinese stocks, outperformed the US Dollar, posting a two-session high at 0.7235. Overall, market conditions have been calm today, though there a feeling that a storm is bearing down. Concerns remain about vulnerable foreign-currency indebted emerging market countries, while President Trump looks set to make a big ratchet up in the Sino-US trade war with the imposition of tariff hikes on a further $200 bln of Chinese imports, which, unless he has a sudden change of heart, could happen as soon as Thursday. Canada-US talks on trade will resume tomorrow.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Construction PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to dip to 55.0, following July’s 55.8.

    * UK Inflation Report Hearings – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

    * RBA Gov Lowe Speech

    * US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – It is estimated to slip to 58.0 in August, from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #593
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    Date : 05th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, with trade woes and as the EM crisis saw market pressure shifting from currencies to stocks. IMF reported progress in talks with Argentina but contagion fears continue to weigh on sentiment also in developed markets. Treasury yields still backed up from overnight lows and are up 0.3 bp on the day at 2.909%, while 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to 0.104%. Australia’s 10-year yields jumped more than 4 bp after higher than expected GDP numbers. US stock futures are moving down Oil prices are also slightly lower and the WTI future is trading at USD 69.38 per barrel.

    FX Update: The Dollar majors are near net unchanged on the day so far, into the arrival of the London interbank market, while emerging market currencies have enjoyed some reprieve. EURUSD has been holding near to 1.1600 after recouping from the 2-week low that was seen yesterday at 1.1530, with reports of good selling interest above 1.1600 helping cap the pairing. The Yen underwent a bout of weakness before firming back. USDJPY lifted to a 111.71 high earlier in Tokyo, before ebbing back under 111.50. In news out of Japan today, BoJ is reportedly happy with its recent tweaks to its yield curve control policy, which allows for greater flexibility, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. AUDJPY, a cross which came under heavy pressure last week, correlating with Chinese stock markets, lifted to a three-session high today, aided by strong Q2 GDP data out of Australia (which showed the best annual growth rate, at 3.4% y/y, since Q3 2012). The cross, like USDJPY, has fallen back from the highs as the Yen picked up some support amid a backdrop of fragile stock market sentiment in Asia and globally. The threat of a marked escalation in the Sino-US trade war continues to hang over markets, while most expect more unravelling in the nascent emerging market currency crisis.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Services PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to rise to 53.8 from July’s 55.5 reading.

    * Eurozone Services PMI – Expectations – They are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4.

    * Canadian Trade Balance & Labor Productivity – Expectations – The July trade report is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1.

    * BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – No change to the current 1.50% rate setting, is expected, as BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to “transitory factors.”

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #594
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    Date : 06th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 06th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields are little changed at 2.902%, JGB yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.100%. BoJ boosted buying five 10-year bonds in a bid to offset a cut in frequency of operations this month, which ties in with the bank’s intention not to make major changes after the last policy tweak and dampen speculation that it wants to taper at a faster pace. BoJ Board member Kataoka criticized the forward guidance and suggested the bank should have specified inflation rates, the output gap or inflation expectations. At the same time, he took fault with the added flexibility on the 10-year yield as it made the zero percent target unclear. Stock markets meanwhile remained under pressure amid ongoing emerging market concerns. A stronger Yen and a powerful earthquake added pressure on Japanese markets, as did a tumble in US tech stocks. Some markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, managed modest gains, but most markets are firmly in negative territory. US Futures are also down, as are oil prices, with the WTI future trading at USD 68.59 per barrel.

    FX Action:USDJPY and especially Yen crosses are softer, amid a risk-off themed session in pre-Europe trading in Asia and concerns about emerging market fragility and the next round of US tariffs on Chinese imports. Tech sector underperformance and reports of a powerful earthquake in Japan have also been in the mix. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.17, down from a peak at 111.75, and subsequently settling above 111.30. The biggest mover, once again, has been the AUDJPY cross, which lost nearly 0.5% in making a 79.81 low and returning focus on the 22-month low that was seen on Monday at 79.52. BoJ ultra-dove Kataoka criticized the recent policy tweak by the central bank, to allow greater flexibility in its yield curve control, arguing that it made the zero percent target unclear while calling for additional monetary stimulus. His remarks had little impact on the Yen.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Expectations – It is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July.

    * US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Jobless claims – Expectations – ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.0 in August, after dipping to 55.7 in July. Initial jobless
    * claims are estimated to rise 2k to 215k in the week ended September 1, following a 213k reading in the week of August 25.
    Canadian Building permits – Expectations – Building permits values are projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June.

    * Crude Oil Inventories

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #595
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    Date : 07th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 07th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.2 bp at 2.875%, slightly down from overnight heights, 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.098%. Asian stocks headed further south on route for the worst week since March. Tech stock earnings, trade jitters and emerging market risks remain in focus and continue to weigh on confidence although at least emerging market stocks seemed somewhat steadier albeit in a bearish market. Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.59% and -0.93% respectively, the Hang Seng lost -0.78% and the CSI 300 is down -0.105, after shedding early gains. US futures are heading south and oil prices are little changed with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 67.83 per barrel.

    FX Action: USDJPY and AUDJPY have dropped further today, the former clipping a 16-day low at 110.38 and the latter falling by over 0.5% on route to posting fresh 22-month lows. The story remains the same, with the Yen being underpinned by safe haven demand and the Aussie Dollar underperforming due to Australia’s exposure to China, which looks set to find the US hiking tariff rates on another $200 bln worth of its exports. There are also reports that Trump is thinking of opening up a new front in his trade war with Japan. The general view seems to be that the US will proceed with ratcheting-up the trade war, with the Trump administration firmly in the belief that it is winning. Emerging market stress and tech sector weakness are also in the mix, while today’s US jobs report, on a brighter note, is expected to be strong.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Euro area real GDP – Expectations – Consensus forecast is that it will be the same as the preliminary figure.

    * US Average Hourly Earnings & Nonfarm Payrolls– Expectations – Hourly earnings is an indicator of labor cost inflation and labor market tightness. Consensus forecast for August expects it to remain at 2.7%, same as last month. Nonfarm payrolls measures the number of new jobs created and is expected to grow by 191k compared to 157k last month.

    * Canadian Unemployment and Employment – Expectations – A small net change in employment is expected for August, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased by 0.1%, to 5.9% in August.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #596
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    Date : 10th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th September 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    Tariff concerns continued to rattle equity markets, especially after President Trump surprised with an announcement he was readying an additional $267 bln in levies on Chinese goods. Many key stock indexes had their worst week in months and are likely to remain unsettled. Stocks and bonds around the world will remain sensitive to trade tensions, along with ongoing Brexit uncertainties. Also, economic data will be closely monitored for signs of growth and price impacts. Central bank meetings include the ECB, BoE, and Turkey. No surprises are expected from ECB and BoE. There will be a lot of interest in Turkey’s decision and whether it will hike rates.

    United States: US markets posted some hefty losses last week. As for this week’s data, CPI and retail sales are the highlight. The stronger than expected 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings in the August jobs report, and the concomitant acceleration in the pace of growth to 2.9% y/y, a new cycle high and the fastest since May 2009, will put the focus on August CPI. Looking ahead, y/y gains are expected in headline inflation moderating and stabilising at lower levels over coming months while gains in core prices should remain around 2.4% over the remainder of the year. That should keep the Fed on a gradual trajectory. August retail sales are forecast rising 0.4%, with a 0.6% gain in ex-auto sales. Other data this week includes the preliminary September Michigan sentiment reading, which should move up to 97.0, from a 7-month low of 96.2 in August. The August drop reflected a decline in the current conditions index and the expectations component, and in September both components are likely to get improved. In spite of the August drop, the measure continues to oscillate just below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March. August trade prices will be of interest. Tariffs will likely depress trade prices going forward despite upward domestic price pressure, as producers absorb some of the tax impact. Meanwhile, headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%.

    Fedspeak will be of interest. Several voting Committee members will take to the podium. And while all will support the likelihood for a tightening later this month, their outlooks on the economy down the road will be scrutinized.

    Canada: The ongoing NAFTA talks this week, will be in focus. Stronger than expected reports could add to some angst over BoC, after Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins said in her economic update last Thursday that the Governing Council discussed whether the “gradual approach” remains appropriate. As for the data, August housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to 220.0k from 206.3k in July. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is seen climbing to 87.0% in Q2 from 86.1% in Q1, as real GDP surged 2.9% in Q2 (q/q, saar) after running at a tame 1.4% in Q1. The national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report for Q2 (Friday) will provide the Q2 household debt ratio. The July new home price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June, joining other evidence that Canada’s housing market has stabilized after contracting early this year. The Teranet HPI for August is due Wednesday.

    Europe: The main focus this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting. Official rates are likely to be left untouched and Draghi is expected to confirm the guidance on rates, which foresees no change through the summer of next year. That leaves the focus on QE and the future of net asset purchases. The data calendar is highlighted by German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), were a slight improvement to -12.5 is expected with the September number, versus -13.7 in August. This would still mean that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, and confirm the prevailing view that downside risks are becoming more visible even if current growth trends remain robust. The rest of the week’s calendar features mainly final readings for August inflation numbers, which are not expected to bring major surprises. The Spanish HICP (Wednesday) should be confirmed at 2.2% y/y, German and French readings (Thursday) at 2.0% and 2.6% respectively and the Italian number (Friday) at 1.7% y/y. The Italian number is still held back by positive base effects from changes to education charges last year, but these will fall out of the equation soon.

    The Eurozone also has July trade (Friday) and production (Wednesday) data, and after the mixed German and French numbers, we are looking for a small change of 0.1% m/m in industrial production and a narrowing in the trade surplus. The latter remains very high compared to periods ahead of the financial crisis, and leaves the EU and Germany, in particular, vulnerable to charges of imbalances and an undue focus on exports.

    UK: Attention will remain on Brexit negotiations, along with the September BoE MPC meeting (to be announced Thursday) and a slew of data releases that are highlighted by the second estimate Q2 GDP, July production and trade figures (all due Monday), and the latest labor market report covering July and August (Tuesday). The BoE’s policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.

    As for the data, Q2 GDP is expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, and both July industrial and manufacturing production to expand by 0.4% m/m, which would match the respective growth rates of the month prior. The labor report is anticipated to show a slight tick higher in the unemployment rate, to 4.1% from the multi-decade low rate of 4.0%, with average earnings unchanged at 2.4% y/y and 2.7% y/y in the respective with-bonus and ex-bonus figures in the three months to July.

    Japan: The July tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is seen posting a 0.2% rebound after falling 0.5% in June. The Q3 BSI large all industry index (Wednesday) is predicted rising 1.0 after tumbling 5.3 points to -2.0 in Q2. July machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to rise 5.0% m/m versus the prior 8.8% decline. August PPI (Thursday) likely edged up to a 3.2% y/y pace from 3.1%. Revised July industrial production is due Friday.

    China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.

    Australia: A thin docket is highlighted by August employment (Thursday) which is expected to rise 10.0k after the 3.9k decline in July. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.3% in August.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #597
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    Date : 12th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields have corrected some of yesterday’s gains that saw the 2-year hitting a decade high with investors increasingly pricing in 2 more rate hikes by year end. A fresh bout of risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions added support to core bond markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp at 2.968%, while 10-year JGB yields declined -1.0 bp to 0.095%. Stocks meanwhile are heading for their 10th day of losses in Asia, as China told WTO that it wants to impose USD 7 bln a year in sanctions on the US in retaliation for the US non-compliance with a ruling on US dumping duties. Trump, on the other end, stressed again that the US will be taking a tough stance on China. The MSCIs index of emerging market shares meanwhile has fallen to the lowest levels since May 2017, indicating that EM risks also continue to linger, with tomorrow’s central bank decision in Turkey in view. Across Asia, stocks are mostly lower, with Topix and Nikkei losing -0.55% and -0.39%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -0.45% and -0.62% respectively. The ASX lost -0.12% and US Futures are also lower, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday, as Apple led technology stocks and a surge in Oil prices underpinned energy producers. Oil prices are slightly below overnight highs over USD 70 per barrel, as hurricane Florence threatened east coast gasoline markets and in the midst of sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

    FX Update: Both the Dollar and the Yen have firmed up against most other currencies amid a backdrop of risk aversion in Asia, with the Japanese currency marginally outperforming the US currency, seeing USDJPY nudge lower, after initially posting a 1-week high in early Asia Pacific dealings at 111.65, with the pair then ebbing to the 111.45-50 area. The price was matched by EURJPY, AUDJPY and most other Yen crosses, reflecting a modest pick-up in safe demand for the Japanese currency. Moreover, stock markets in Asia headed south amid ratcheting verbal threats between the US and China on trade and sanctions (US threatening sanctions over treatment of Uighur people, Beijing threatening sanctions on US over trade dumping duties). This situation has offset a signal from Canada that it is ready to make concessions to the US that may lead to a breakthrough in the NAFTA renegotiation (which helped lift the USA500 to a closing gain of 0.4% yesterday on Wall Street).

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * US PPI and Core – Expectations – The headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%. The y/y gain in the headline index should be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in July, while the core index should hold steady at 2.7% y/y.

    * Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – The crude oil inventories expected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels.

    Support and Resistance Level



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degre


  8. #598
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    Date : 13th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund future opened at 159.71, versus a close of 159.63 on Wednesday. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.402%, while Treasury and JGB yields are still up 0.2 bp, but down from earlier highs. A rebound in Asian stock markets, on hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks, put pressure on core bonds, but the Chinese markets quickly erased much of their early gains, and in Europe fresh Italy jitters, amid reports that Finance Minister Tria threatens to resign over budget talks, are adding support to Bunds in opening trade. US futures are heading south after a closing narrowly mixed on Wednesday. There is some speculation that Trump may be changing gears with increased efforts behind the scenes to reach deals in orders to win support, but investors remain cautious. EM markets also remain in focus, as Turkey’s central bank meets, amid ongoing political pressure not to hike rates too much, if not at all. Oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 70 per barrel and are trading at USD 69.86. Released at the start of the session, German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.9% y/y as expected, but the focus is on ECB and BOE meetings today. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, but Draghi is also likely to confirm the planned phasing out of QE, while downward revisions to growth projections and unchanged cautious guidance on rates will offer an opportunity to wrap the changes in a dovish leaning presser.

    FX Update: Yen weakness has been the dominant theme, albeit moderate, during the pre-London open session in Asia, while the Dollar has consolidated losses seen yesterday. USDJPY lifted, as the Japanese currency saw some more of its safe haven premium unwind, following yesterday’s news of the US invitation to senior Chinese officials to restart trade talks. This comes, in true Trumpian fashion, with the US having loaded the gun with tariff hikes on a further $200 bln worth of Chinese imports and threatening to hike tariffs on the remaining $267 bln of imports. USDJPY has lifted back to the mid-111.0s, while EURJPY, AUDJPY and other Yen crosses have concurrently firmed up. Most stock markets in Asia have rallied. EURUSD, after printing a one-week high yesterday at 1.1650 (following news of the US invitation), has drifted to around the 1.1620 mark. The biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates has been AUDJPY and CHFJPY, with both showing 0.3% gains.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * BOE Monetary Policy & Bank Rate – Expectations – BoE’s September policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.

    * ECB Press Conference & Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is widely expected to leave the guidance on rates untouched and confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. Back in June, Draghi said that ECB anticipates to cut back net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and phase out purchases in December. Focus will also be on the details on planned tweaks to the re-investment strategy, which will likely bring more flexibility for ECB as redemptions start to become more important.

    * US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is forecast rising to 0.2% m/m for both overall and core prices.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #599
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    Date : 14th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    FX Update: The Dollar has been holding mostly narrow ranges against most other currencies, though USDJPY showed a fresh six-week high at 112.07 during early the Tokyo session before settling around the 111.80 mark. Other Yen crosses also registered new highs, before settling, with the Japanese currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market direction. The USD index (DXY) has remained broadly unchanged on the day, at 94.50, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the US CPI release. EURUSD is also near net unchanged heading into the London interbank open, at 1.1695, holding just below yesterday’s two-week peak of 1.1701. Cable has similarly held steady near yesterday’s highs. US data releases are up today, including retail sales and industrial production, with risks to the upside.

    Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.968%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.2 bp at 0.103%, while stock markets moved broadly higher during the Asian session, after a technology-led rise in US markets yesterday. Cautious central banks in Europe, hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks and a larger-than-expected rate hike in Turkey all make for a positive backdrop to sentiment as the week draws to a close. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.91% and -0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.87% and the CSI 300 is up 0.15%, Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are down -0.04% and -0.41% though after Trump cast some doubts over reports of a new round of talks with China and the investment slowdown worsened according to latest data, indicating that policies intended to boost investment growth have not made and impact yet. U.S. futures are moving higher in tandem with FTSE 100 futures and oil prices are slightly higher with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.83 per barrel.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.

    * US Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production Indices – Expectations – Both indices are expected to show the improvement in US macroeconomic developments over the past weeks, with Capacity Utilisation expected to stand at 78.2%, compared to 78.1% in July. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.3%,
    * compared to 0.1% last month.
    US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Sentiment is expected to increase, again given the improvement in US macroeconomic conditions, to 96.6 compared to 96.2 in July.

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #600
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    Date : 17th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th September 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    The trade war appears to be ratcheting up once again amid contradictory signals from the Trump administration. Last week a WSJ story suggested that the Chinese had been invited back to the negotiating table by a trade team headed by the more moderate Mnuchin, though Trump later tweeted that there wasn’t any pressure to make a deal with China. Wall Street responded bullishly to the apparent olive branch and shrugged off the tweet on balance, even after Trump indicated his advisors would be instructed to proceed with the $200 bln in tariffs. This has “increased tail risk” according to JP Morgan analysis in terms of the range of possible outcomes, which will dictate just how much growth may slow, if implemented, and inflation may increase – from nominal changes to significant swings. Fed policy is seen remaining on track in the meantime, as the two effects tend to cancel each other out and US employment and inflation mandates continue to punch in roughly on target.

    United States: The US economy remains firm hurtling toward the end of Q3 after a strong 4.2% GDP growth pace in Q2. All survey participants are forecasting another quarter-point tightening in December, too, and most recent Fedspeak has been comfortable with quarterly hikes heading into 2019 as well.

    The US economic calendar kicks off with an update on the Empire State index, seen declining to 22.0 in September (Monday), from a 10-month high of 25.6 in August. The NAHB housing market index is forecast (Tuesday) to rise to 68 in September from 67 in August. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), and along with housing starts are expected to rise 4.5% in August, to a 1.220 mln rate, after a 0.9% gain to 1.168 mln in July. August building permits are estimated to rise 0.9% to 1.315 mln, following a similar gain in July. The current account balance is forecast to narrow to -$103.3 bln in Q2 (Wednesday), from -$124.1 bln in Q1 reflecting strength in exports but a flat import figure. The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September (Thursday), from a 2-year low of 11.9 and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 8k to 212k in the week ended September 15, following a 204k reading in the week of September 8-lowest since December 1969. Existing home sales are anticipated to rebound 1.1% in August to a 5.40 mln pace (Thursday), after declines in the prior four months. Sales declined 6.6% in Q2, after a 6.1% drop in Q1, amid lopsided hurricane rebuilding comparisons the year prior. And the leading economic index is expected to rise 0.5% in August, after a 0.6% gain in July and a 0.5% increase in June.

    Canada: Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to expand 1.0% in July after the 1.1% gain in June. CPI (Friday) is projected to be flat (0.0%) in August (m/m, nsa) after the 0.5% surge in July, slowing the annual growth rate to 2.9% in August from 3.0% y/y in July. The three core measures are expected to remain near a 2.0% annual growth pace in August. Retail sales (Friday) are seen rising 0.5% in July after the 0.2% decline in June. Retail sales excluding autos are projected to expand 0.6% in July following the 0.1% dip in June. Existing homes sales for August are expected on Monday. The ADP employment survey is due Thursday. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland is expected to return to Washington to resume high level NAFTA talks, which could reach a provisional framework.

    Europe: Last week, ECB confirmed the tapering of net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and still intends to phase out QE by year end, but with ECB maintaining its stock for now and redemptions becoming more important, comments from ECB President Draghi on Wednesday are likely to stress again that the central bank is still maintaining a still very expansionary policy. Meanwhile, the data calendar focuses on preliminary PMI numbers for September (Friday). The German ZEW came in a tad higher than expected, but German orders numbers were pretty dismal and the geopolitical risk backdrop has not improved significantly. Against that background Eurozone readings are expected to slightly change from the August round with growth and job creation ongoing but slowing down as respondents increasingly note the uncertainties surrounding the longer term outlook. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and the services reading is expected to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend. Final August Eurozone HICP (Monday) inflation meanwhile is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 2.0% y/y, but comes with a slight bias to the downside, after some downward revisions to national data.

    UK: Brexit negotiations, now very much at the sharp end, will continue, and will also no doubt continue to be a source of turbulence for sterling markets. Talks will continue this week. The EU’s 28 leaders are due to discuss Brexit at a summit in Salzburg this Thursday, where they are expected to agree to hold an extraordinary meeting in November to sign off on a deal on future relations. Another key event to watch will be the Conservative Party conference, which will take place from September 20 to October 3. The data calendar will be highlighted by August inflation data (Wednesday) and August retail sales numbers (Thursday). The headline CPI is anticipated to ebb back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, with core prices seen similarly nudging lower, to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y. As for retail sales, a 0.2% m/m contraction in August should be reported, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.

    Japan: BoJ announces policy on Wednesday after its two-day meeting. The Bank will likely leave its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and leave YCC (yield curve control), which guides the 10-year JGB around 0%, in place. The data calendar doesn’t kick off until Wednesday, when the August trade report is due. August national CPI (Friday) is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% overall, and at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% on a core basis. The July all-industry index is also due Friday.

    China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.

    Australia: Another sparse docket is highlighted by the minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting (Tuesday). RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent discusses “Money Creation” at the Reserve Bank’s Topical Talk Event for Educators. The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to decline 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% drop in Q1.

    New Zealand: GDP (Thursday) is projected to expand at a 0.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q1. The current account (Wednesday) is seen moving to a -NZ$1.0 bln deficit in Q2 from the NZ$0.2 bln surplus in Q1.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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