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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #501
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    Date : 9th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    It was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisers. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to lump on another $100 bln tariffs to the $50 bln already on the table. Fed Chairman Powell remained bullish on the economy in his speech on the outlook, suggesting “gradualism” remained intact, while in Q&A he felt it was premature to draw implications from the tariff threats either for inflation or growth.

    United States: The calendar will home back in on inflation stats for March in a timely fashion, hot on the heels of the 0.3% uptick on average hourly earnings embedded in the March payrolls report. PPI is forecast (Tuesday) rising 0.2% in March, though the annual pace will speed up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y. The core PPI is seen rising 0.2% as well versus 0.2% previously, with a steady 2.5% y/y. Wholesale sales are projected (Tuesday) to increase 0.6% in February vs -1.1% in January, while inventories are seen 0.2% firmer. The MBA mortgage market report is out (Wednesday), along with overall March CPI expected to edge up 0.1% vs 0.2%, with core CPI seen up 0.2%, as was the case in February. Annual rates should move a tad higher too, with the headline pace seen at 2.4% from 2.2% y/y, while the core rate firms to 2.1% from 1.8%. This will be the first 2-handle since March 2017, but it won’t trigger a response from the FOMC as CPI is not the Fed’s preferred measure. The Treasury budget deficit (Wednesday) may widen to $186 bln in March from $176 bln year-ago levels. Import prices are forecast (Thursday) to increase 0.4% in March versus February’s 0.4%, while export prices may rise 0.2%, the same as in February. Initial jobless claims are presumed to correct back down 17k to 225k for the week ended April 7 (Thursday). Rounding out the week (Friday) are Michigan sentiment and the Fed’s JOLTS job openings.

    Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes will be highlights this week after the “gradualist” tone from Chairman Powell in Friday’s speech set the stage for steady policy near term. There are several Fedspeakers this week, but none are voters. Hawk Kaplan will be in Beijing and will be speaking Monday, The dove Kashkari will do another moderated Q&A Thursday. Rosengren, Bullard, and Kaplan will also be on the wires on Friday the 13th. The FOMC minutes to Powell’s first meeting in March as Chairman could be interesting.

    Earnings season kicks off again from Thursday – Fastenal and BlackRock and then a rash of financial firms — Citigroup, First Republic Bank, Infosys, JP Morgan Chase, PNC Financial, Wells Fargo on Friday. Expectations are for strong results, and possible upside potential as the S&P 500 and the DJIA30 ended the week close to their 200 day moving averages.

    Canada: The calendar is headlined by the BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey (Monday), expected to reveal some slippage in business sentiment, a tighter capacity backdrop, increased labour shortages but still well contained inflation expectations. In other words, the report will be supportive of no change in the 1.25% rate setting next week. Housing starts (Monday) are projected to fall to 220.0k in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values are expected to dip 1.0% in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The new housing price index is seen falling 0.1% in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 3.0% m/m decline anticipated, as the rate of contraction moderates after the -6.5% fall in February and record 14.5% plunge in January.

    Europe: Light calendar with mainly final inflation data for March, which are unlikely to hold major surprises. Expect HICP rates to be confirmed at 1.7% for France (Thursday), 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), 1.5% for German HICP (Friday) and 1.3% for Spain (Friday), which should leave the Eurozone HICP (due the following week) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February. German trade data for February (Monday), as well as Eurozone trade which could well attract more interest than usual amid the ongoing trade tensions. Expectations are for a slight rise in German exports of 0.2% m/m, after the -0.5% m/m drop in January.

    ECBspeak will be closely monitored. Officials are likely to continue to strike a balance with hawkish comments from Weidmann (Thursday) countered by softer tones from other central bankers scheduled to speak, including Draghi (Wednesday) and Constancio (Monday). The ECB also publishes the minutes of the March policy meeting, when the central bank decided to finally remove the easing bias on rates from the policy guidance.

    Japan: The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,000 bln from 607.4 bln previously. March consumer confidence (Monday) is seen improving to 44.6 from 44.3. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 4.0% m/m from up 8.2%, while March PPI is forecast to slip to 1.9% y/y from 2.5%. The impact of the firmer JPY on inflation was likely offset by firmer crude oil prices. March bank loan figures are due Wednesday and finally a speech for the BOJ’s Kuroda is set for Thursday.

    UK: Fundamental leads have been blurred by inclement weather in the last data month, which largely accounted for the big misses in last week’s March PMI survey outcomes. The calendar this week kicks off with the BRC retail sales report for March (Monday), with expectations of a 0.1% headline decline in the same-store figure. Industrial production for February is also up (Wednesday), with expectations of rises of 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. respectively). Trade data for February is also due (also Wednesday), where forecasts are for a GBP 11.9 deficit in the visible goods balance.

    China: Release March loan growth and new yuan loans (likely Tuesday), with the former seen at an unchanged 12.8% y/y rate, and the latter at CNY 1,000 bln from 839.3 bln previously. March CPI (Wednesday) likely slipped to a 2.5% y/y pace after almost doubling to 2.9% in February from 1.5% in January. March PPI (Wednesday) is forecast at 3.3% y/y from 3.7%. The March trade report (Friday) will be of interest given all the fuss over trade and tariffs, though it won’t show any real effects. It should reveal a narrowed surplus of $29.0 bln from $33.7 bln in February.

    Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “Regional Variation in a National Economy.” The Financial Stability Review is due Friday. Economic data is thin this week, but has housing investment (Thursday), expected to dip 0.5% in February after the 1.1% decline in January.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #502
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    Date : 10th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Conciliatory words on trade from China’s President Xi Jinping, who pledged greater openness in sectors from banking to auto manufactures while warning against a return to a “Cold War mentality” helped to calm nerves and underpinned stocks, while weighing on safe haven assets, especially in the U.S.. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.025%, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.6 bp and back above the 2.8% mark. Stock markets meanwhile have moved broadly higher, Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, the Hang Seng outperformed again and gained 1.12% so far and the CSI 300 is up 0.48%. U.S. stock futures are rallying and up more than 1% across, Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ, with the latter outperforming. Oil prices also benefited from the risk on environment and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. An all round risk on environment, then, at least for now.

    FX Update: USDJPY edged out a two-session high following a fresh bout of general yen weakness. Chinese President Xi’s keynote speech earlier mollified investor anxieties by de-ratcheting the trade war rhetoric by pledging that Chinese economy will open up and will lower import tariffs on vehicles, and although details were limited, this managed to lift stock markets in Asia, along with U.S. and European stock index futures. The Nikkei 225 gained by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures were showing a 1.1% advance. The yen weakened against this backdrop as safe haven positions unwound. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 107.24 before settling slightly off here. The pair has support at 106.77-80.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * USA PPI – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 2.6% 3 from 2.5% last time. MoM figures are expected to see the headline slip to 0.1% from 0.2% and the key Core figure remain unchanged at 0.2%.

    * CAD Housing Starts – Are expected to fall to 220.0k unit pace in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values, also due Tuesday, are expected to dip 1.0% (m/m, sa) in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The permits and starts reports lead a full week of housing data. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen falling 0.1% (m/m, sa) in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 18.0% y/y decline anticipated in March following the 16.9% y/y drop in February.


    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #503
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    Date : 17th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Stocks in Asia traded narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up a mere 0.02%, the ASX up 0.07% and Hang Seng and CSI 300, which tanked yesterday, underperforming once again and down -0.40% and -0.87% respectively, despite as expected GDP numbers out of China. China’s GDP grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 following the identical 6.8% y/y rise in Q4. GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures as comments from Praet seemed to confirm that the ECB is not ready to commit to an end date for QE just year. UK100 futures meanwhile are heading south ahead of labour market data. The calendar today also has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to correct further.Trade jitters and geopolitical risks continue to hang over markets and 10-year JGB yields are little changed at 0.30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield up 0.6 bp at 2.832%, as U.S. stock futures move higher.

    FX Update: A dollar softening theme has been prevailing, with EURUSD printing a three-week high just above 1.2380 and USDJPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUDUSD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBA’s minutes to its April policy meeting, which was deemed as showing board members as being relatively less optimistic on the economy than before, helping cement the view that the central bank will likely be on hold through to 2019. There was a mix of other news, including as-expected GDP data out of China, of 6.8% y/y in Q1, an unexpected downward revision in the final release of Japanese February industrial production, to 0.0% m/m from the preliminary estimate of 4.1% m/m, and a report that North and South Korea are apparently set on discussing an official end to the war. Market participants are also gearing up for the meeting between Trump and Abe this week, which is expected to be conciliatory in tone as Trump’s face-to-face meetings with world leaders tends to be, especially with his softening tone on trade with China and NAFTA. Cable has punched out a fresh post-Brexit vote high above 1.4350, today marking the seventh consecutive higher high with markets expecting a perky wages reading in today’s labour market report, which along with tomorrow’s inflation data should seal expectations for the BoE to hike in May.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) –

    * German ZEW – expected to fall further, with heightened market volatility likely adding to the error margin for the forecasts. A reading of 2 in April is expected, down from 5.1 in March, while median forecast predicts a dip into negative territory, which would indicate that pessimists outnumber optimists. Anything short of a major surprise to the upside will add to concerns that growth momentum is already starting to slow down, while the ECB is mulling exit steps.

    * Canadian Manufacturing Sales – February manufacturing is seen rebounding 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 1.0% drop in January.

    * US Industrial Production – a 0.4% gain after surging 0.9% in February. Capacity utilization is projected t 77.9% from 77.7%. Risk to production is to the upside, however, given strong factory employment, and still robust manufacturing ISM and PMI data.

    * FOMC Member Williams, Harker and Bostic Speak, along with Fed’s Quarles

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #504
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    Date : 18th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The recovery on global stock markets continued during the Asian session, after a good start to the U.S. earnings season. Bonds rallied in Asia, and China’s 10-year yield dropped more than 14 bp after the People’s Bank of china cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks to bolster credit amid a crackdown on shadow lending. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.0275, while 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 p at 2.840%. Early signs that the Trump-Abe summit won’t lead to new trade demands from the U.S. helped to bolster confidence and the Nikkei is up 1.585, the ASX 200 0.29%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 0.87% and 0.47%. China’s automakers were hit by plans to allow foreign companies to take full ownership of their local ventures. U.S. futures are posting further gains. Oil prices are higher and WTI future is trading at USD 67.12 per barrel.Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is expected to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y, while U.K. CPI is seen holding steady at 2.7%.

    FX Update: Narrow ranges have mostly prevailed into the London interbank open, with most of the main dollar pairings holding well within their respective ranges from yesterday. This has been seen amid an ongoing recovery rally in global stock markets as trade and geopolitical concerns continued to abate. EURUSD has held a narrow range in the upper 1.2300s, below the three-week high that was seen yesterday at 1.2414. Cable and AUDUSD have been similarly directionally challenged. USDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising some 30 pips in making a peak of 107.38, breaching yesterday’s peak on route but falling short of Monday’s peak by 1 pip.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior.

    * UK CPI – CPI expected to remain unchanged 2.7%, above the BoE’s 2.0% target.

    * Eurozone CPI – widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February, but this is largely due to base effects from energy and food prices, as well as the earlier timing of Easter.

    * BoC Statement & Conference – projections remain for no change to the 1.25% rate setting, along with a cautiously constructive growth outlook salted with trade uncertainty. An as-expected outing would maintain the base-case for further gradual rate hikes this year. The BoC will also release the Monetary Policy Report.

    * Fed’s Quarles, & William Dudley Speeches

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #505
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    Date : 19th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: The global stock market stabilisation continued in Asia and volatility is receding as optimism in the global growth outlook returns following a cautiously optimistic Beige Book from the Fed.Fed’s Beige Book said economic activity remained “modest” to “moderate” across all 12 Districts. That’s pretty much been the characterization for several years, and those were the adverbs that described many sectors. Energy companies are underpinned by rising oil prices as inventory levels fall. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are up from earlier lows, but still down -0.4 bp on the day at 2.869%, while 10-year JGB yields rose 0.3 bp to 0.031%. Elsewhere in Asia long yields are also higher as equity markets recover. The Nikkei gained 0.23%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied a further 1.3% and 1.1% amid rumours of state intervention in China. U.S. stock futures are also in the green, with NASDAQ futures outperforming. The WTI future is trading at USD 68.94 per barrel.Today’s data calendar has Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as U.K. retail sales numbers.

    FX Update: The dollar has been trading near net steady so far today, while yen weakness remained a theme. EURUSD has settled in the upper 1.2300s, holding below the three-week high seen earlier in the week at 1.2414. USDJPY edged out a three-session high at 107.51, EURJPY a two-month high, just above 133.00, while AUDJPY managed a to post a four-session peak. The generally more risk positive backdrop has continued to weigh on the yen as residual safe haven premium unwinds and markets return focus to bullish fundamental arguments for USDJPY (specifically yield differentials, which have markedly gapped in the dollar’s favour this year). Following the Trump-Abe meeting this week, Trump said he wants a bilateral trade deal with Japan, and there was reportedly no discussion of currency levels between the two leaders. On the trade front, China’s commerce ministry repeated today that it is prepared to respond to U.S. trade threats. The Australian dollar came under pressure following a miss in Australian employment data before quickly turning higher. AUDUSD lifted out of its 0.7773 low to post a five-week high at 0.7812.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior.

    * US Unemployment Claims – expected to fall slightly at 230K from 233K reported last week.

    * US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – April’s Philly Fed index is expected to slip to 21.0 after falling 3.5 points to 22.3 in March.

    * FOMC Brainard, UK’s MPC Cunliffe, Fed’s Quarles, & FOMC Mester Speak

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #506
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    Date : 20th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: SNB’s Jordan sees no need for change in policy. The Swiss central bank President told Bloomberg last night that “there is no need to do anything regarding monetary policy at this morning”. Speaking after the CHF broke through the 1.20 per euro mark for the first time since the SNB gave up that ceiling, Jordan said the franc’s drop goes in the “right direction” but added that the currency is still considered a haven and the situation “fragile” and prone to change. So the SNB “remains very prudent” and “convinced that the current monetary policy is still necessary”. Further confirmation that the SNB is firmly on hold while watching also the ECB’s move very closely. If and when the ECB finally starts to reign in its support it will also increase the room for the SNB to manoeuvre. Bloomberg polls predict the first rate hike from the SNB in the last quarter of 2019.

    US Updates: Revealed a Philly Fed rise to 23.2 in April and a 1k initial claims downtick to a slightly-elevated 232k in the BLS survey week of April. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed beat estimates with only a small April drop to 59.7 from a 45-year high of 61.8 in March, thus outperforming Monday’s Empire State where we saw an April drop to 15.8 from 22.5 with an ISM-adjusted decline to 56.2 from 57.3. For claims, the trend remains tight despite modestly higher readings over the last three weeks, as the moving Easter holiday and school breaks often distort April claims. We still expect a 210k April nonfarm payroll rise. The weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index hit a third consecutive new cycle-high in mid-April of 58.1, and leading indicators rose 0.3% in March to leave a 22-month stretch without a decline, and a rise in the 6-month annualized reading to a lofty 8.8%.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * CAD Retail sales – Expectations are for an improvement of 0.5% in February after the 0.3% gain in January. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected at +0.3% after the 0.9% gain in January. The CPI’s gasoline price index edged 0.7% lower in February after jumping 3.2% in January following a 3.3% drop in December. % m/m inline with expectations

    * CAD CPI – Expect March CPI, due Friday, to expand 0.4% (m/m) after the 0.6% surge in February. The annual growth rate is projected at 2.5% in March, up from the 2.2% y/y pace seen in February that was the fasted rate of CPI growth since the 2.4% pace in October of 2014. The BoC took the recent CPI climb in stride, viewing it as in line with their outlook. The temporary factors that had been restraining inflation, the Bank explained, “have largely dissipated, as expected.” The close to 2% core inflation rates are consistent with an “economy operating with little slack.” Inflation in 2018 is expected to be modestly higher than they expected in January, but due to the transitory impact of higher gas prices and recent minimum wage increases. See the preview.

    * IMF Speeches – Saunders (BOE) Weidmann (Buba) Williams (FOMC)

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #507
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    Date : 23rd April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd April 2018.




    FX News Today

    There’s a lot on this week’s calendar to be digested, including a mass of earnings, heavy Treasury supply, and important data releases. There’s a lot of data, and especially sentiment numbers, that support healthy economic growth ahead. Fiscal stimulus should also be very supportive, not to mention rising global growth (remember the IMF forecasts growth at 3.9% for this year and next). There are a couple of important caveats to that outlook, however. One is the maturity of the U.S. expansion (106 months). It’s getting quite long in the tooth and next month will be the second longest on record, beating the boom in the 1960s. And if it survives until next year, it will become the longest expansion on record. And while we don’t expect a trade war, it is a risk.

    United States: Earnings will be the focal point most of the week as all sectors of the S&P will be well represented from key companies. With almost one-fifth of the S&P having reported, 79% have beaten estimates. As for supply, there’s over $230 bln in bills and short dated coupons on tap. And for data, it’s the Advance Q1 GDP and ECI (both Friday) that will take top billing, but there’s also a number of housing, manufacturing, and confidence reports. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely declined to 126.0 in April, from March’s 127.7. As for Michigan sentiment (Friday), a final April reading of 98.0 is expected, little-changed from the preliminary. Though expected to slip in April, both sentiment indicators remain at lofty levels. Confidence reached a 17-year high of 130.0 in February and the Michigan March reading was at a 14-year high. Durable goods orders (Thursday) are forecast rising 1.5% in March on top of the 3.0% jump in February, with shipments and inventories also expected to be up strongly at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. March existing home sales (Monday) should rise 0.7% to a 5.580 mln rate, following a strong 3.0% gain in February to 5.540 mln. New home sales (Tuesday) are also expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February.

    Canada: The week in Canada begins with an appearance by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins in front of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (Monday). The opening statement will be available on the BoC’s site at 15:30 ET. As always, central bank enthusiast can listen in on the Parliament of Canada’s website. The Parliament appearance will presumably reiterate the outlook presented in the announcement and MPR. Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday.

    As for data, wholesale shipment values (Monday) are expected to improve 0.5% in February after the 0.1% gain in January. The report is the final input in the monthly GDP projection, tracking a 0.2% gain in February GDP (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% drop in January. An estimate for real Q1 GDP is for a 1.5% gain (q/q, saar) after the 1.7% increase in Q4, which would be just above the BoC’s 1.3% Q1 estimate from the April MPR and hence have little impact on the near term policy outlook. February average weekly earnings (Thursday) are seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% increase in January. The Bank was constructive on wage growth last week, observing that the continued pick-up is “as expected, even factoring out recent minimum wage increases in Ontario and Alberta.” The April CFIB sentiment indicator will be released on Thursday.

    Europe: The focus this week is on the ECB meeting, which is widely expected to keep rates and guidance unchanged at the April meeting amid ongoing volatility on markets and lingering trade and geopolitical concerns. Draghi will likely sound pretty much like Praet on April 17: Optimistic on growth and the medium term inflation outlook but not convinced yet that inflation developments have met criteria for sustained adjustment. So the message remains for now that an ample degree of stimulus remains necessary and the ECB must be “patient, persistent and prudent”.

    It also a bumper weak on the data front, with PMI, IFO and ESI Economic Confidence taking centre stage. France and Spain are the first major Eurozone countries to release Q1 GDP numbers and Spain will publish the first preliminary inflation reading for April. So plenty of relevant data, most of which is likely to be bond friendly, but unlikely to solve the question whether the current warning signals in indicators are due to one off factors, or the first sign of a broader and quicker slowdown in growth momentum. The long and harsh winter, coupled with widespread flue outbreaks and unusually large numbers of sick days as well as the earlier timing of Easter this year, has left its mark on data through Q1 and likely to also still have an impact on April figures.

    Preliminary PMI readings (Tuesday) are seen falling across the board, but expected to still point to a robust pace of expansion in manufacturing and services sectors. The German Ifo business confidence indicator (Tuesday) comes in a new format this month as the institute has changed the base care tweaked the methodology and also included the services sector now, which so far has been reported separately. This makes forecasts and comparisons more tricky, although the Ifo institute has provided a backward time series. For the new indicator, a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.6 from 100.1 in the previous month. Finally Eurozone ESI economic confidence (Friday) is seen falling to 112.2 from 112.6 in March, with both services and manufacturing confidence expected to decline further. Data may be showing first signs of a slowdown, but the labor market is a lagging indicator and we expect a renewed decline in the German jobless number (Friday) of -5K in April, with the unemployment rate likely to hold at a record low of 5.3%.

    UK: The calendar this week brings the CBI trends surveys, consumer confidence and the first estimate for Q1 GDP, along with monthly government borrowing figures. The April CBI industrial trends survey (Tuesday) expected to come in with a +4 reading in the total orders headline, while the CBI’s distributive sales survey for the same month (Thursday) should post an improvement to a -2 reading in the headline realized sales figure after -8 in the month prior. The April Gfk consumer confidence (also Thursday) anticipated at -7 , which would be unchanged from the previous month. As for GDP (Friday), growth rates expected at 0.3% q/q and 1.4% after respective Q4 figures of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.

    Japan: The BoJ meets (Thursday, Friday) and no policy changes are expected. This meeting will be the first for the two new deputy governors, Masayoshi Amamiya and Masazumi Wakatabe, and it will be interesting to ascertain their leanings. The March services PPI (Tuesday) is seen rising to a 0.7% y/y clip from 0.6%. The remaining releases are all due Friday. The February all-industry index is forecast bouncing 1.0% after the -1.8% drop in January. March unemployment rate is seen steady at 2.5%, while the job offers/seekers ratio should stay unchanged at 1.58. March industrial production is penciled in at 1.0% y/y from the prior unchanged reading. March retail sales are expected to post a 1.6% y/y clip, slightly down from the previous 1.7% increase. March housing starts and construction orders are also due.

    Australia: The Q1 CPI (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q4. The CPI is projected to expand at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q1 from the 1.9% y/y growth rate in Q4. Trade prices are due Thursday, with the export price index expected to rise to a 4.0% pace in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 2.8% rise in Q4. The import price index is anticipated at 1.0% in Q1, half of the 2.0% rate in Q4. The Q1 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Kent (Financial Markets) speaks Tuesday at the Housing Industry Association (HIA) Breakfast in Sydney on “The limits of Interest-Only Lending.” Next week brings the RBA’s meeting.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #508
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    Date : 24th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian markets moved mostly higher overnight, following on from a positive session on Wall Street and amid ongoing USD strength with a weaker Yen underpinning a 0.75% rise in the Nikkei. The Hang Seng is up 0.94%, the CSI 300 rallied 1.75% amid speculation that the government is considering easing some policies put in to limit the credit boom. The absence of any negative news on the trade front seems to have given stock markets some breathing space and U.S. futures are also up in tandem with U.K. futures. Oil prices are also up and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 69.14 per barrel. For now though bonds are getting a boost and stock markets are also higher, with most European futures posting gains in tandem with U.S. futures and after a positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on confidence data out of France, Germany and the U.K.. The U.K. also has public finance data and Germany auctions 2-year Schatz notes.

    FX Update: The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07. EURUSD logged a 10-week low at 1.2184, though euro demand has subsequently fuelled a rebound to the 1.2220 area. USDJPY lifted for a sixth consecutive session, making a 10-week high at 108.87. EURJPY is also firmer, though has so far remained below the two-month high it saw last week. The gains in USDJPY have been concomitant with the U.S. T-note yield nearing the 3.0% level, which has been generating headlines, which comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.86% for the better, more than reversing the moderate loss seen yesterday. North Korea’s Kim said that he would be willing to accept IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * German IFO – The German Ifo business confidence indicator, due Tuesday, comes in a new format this month, which includes the services sector now. For the new indicator a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.5 from 100.1 in the previous month. However, after the better than expected PMI readings there is a bias to the upside to the numbers. In any case, we don’t expect the April round of survey indicators to really change the outlook for the ECB, which is seen on hold this week, with officials seeing scope to leave the final decision on the future of the QE program open until July, when the risks to the global outlook may have become a bit clearer and the decision is becoming urgent.

    * UK Public Borrowing – Expectations – at 1.6B pounds from -0.272B pounds last month.

    * US Consumer confidence – likely declined to 126.0 in April, from March’s 127.7.

    * US New home sales – expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February.

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #509
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    Date : 25th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.623% in early trade, the 2-year is down -0.5 bp at -0.5685. 10-year Treasury yields pierced the 3% mark overnight, but have fallen back slightly to currently 2.998%, while yields moved broadly higher in Asia with the 10-year JGB up 1.2 bp at 0.054%. Stock markets headed south in Asia, following a weak close in the U.S. with concerns about the earnings outlook amid warnings on profit outlooks hit sentiment. With a lack of key data releases in Europe today the focus is on the ECB meeting tomorrow, where Draghi will likely see through the recent run of weak confidence data to keep the ECB on course to end net asset purchases by the end of the year, but repeat once again that inflation is not yet on a sustainable path higher, which means the ECB is not ready to commit just yet.

    FX Update: USDJPY lifted back above 109.00 from yesterday’s correction low at 108.54, but has so far left yesterday’s 10-week peak at 109.20 untroubled. Ditto for EURJPY. Stock markets in Asia have been broadly lower following declines on Wall Street, with investors digesting higher yields — the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level (and first time here since early 2017) — and doubts about earnings growth. The USA500 closed out yesterday with a 1.3% loss, while the Nikkie 225 was showing a 0.3% loss in the late PM Tokyo session. This backdrop has likely curtailed yen selling, according to market narratives. In data, Japan’s February industry activity index came in with 0.4% m/m growth, slightly below the median forecast for 0.5%. USDJPY has been trending higher for a month now, from sub-105.00 levels. The dynamic has been concomitant with rising U.S. yields, with looser fiscal policy having given added underpinning to Fed tightening expectations. This comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. Demand for foreign assets by Japanese life insurers has been a factor propping USDJPY up so far in the new fiscal year, while an abatement in concerns about trade tensions and cooling relations on the Korean peninsular have also been in the mix. Overall, we advise following the trend in USDJPY for now. Support comes in at 108.40-42.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

    * Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – -2.043M Barrels from -1.1M last week

    * BOC Gov Poloz & Wilkins speech – Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday.

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #510
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    Date : 26th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields down -0.2 bp at 0.627% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 0.3 bp at -0.564%. So a slight flattening of the yield curve, which mirrors developments in in the U.S.. Still, while 10-year Bund, JGB and Treasury yields are marginally down, they remain at high levels with the 10-year Treasury still holding above 3.0%. Stock markets meanwhile are struggling to come to terms with the prospect of yields rising amid signs of a slowdown in growth. Asian markets traded mixed and while NASDAQ futures got a lift from earnings reports, Dow Jones and USA500 futures are down. In Europe stock futures are moving higher, led by the GER30, amid reports that China will cut import duties on cars. Still, trading is likely to remain cautious ahead of the ECB meeting today. With Draghi widely expected to keep rates on hold, the focus will be on the presser and signs that the central bank is inching closer to a decision on QE. The Riksbank is also expected to keep rates steady. The calendar also has U.K. mortgage data and the CBI retailing survey. German consumer confidence at the start of the session fell back slightly – as expected

    FX Update: The dollar has dipped after posting fresh highs versus the euro and yen, among other currencies. EURUSD posted an eight-week low at 1.2159 while US-JPY rose of an eighth consecutive day, making an 11-week high at 109.46. The move reflected ongoing dollar strength, although the yen has been among the leaders of the underperforming currencies over the last week, too. Loose fiscal policy and Fed tightening expectations have been providing the fundamental underpinnings of the dollar’s ascent, with flagging global stock markets an indirect positive. On the trade front, China said today that it will be cutting the levy on imported cars to about 10-15% from 25% currently. On the geopolitical front, focus is on what Trump decides with regard to the Iran nuclear deal.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * ECB – The ECB is widely expected to keep rates and guidance unchanged at today’s meeting. Draghi will likely sound pretty much like Praet on April 17. Cautiously optimistic on growth and the medium term inflation outlook – to keep a phasing out of QE this year in play, but not convinced yet that inflation developments have met criteria for sustained adjustment.

    * US Labor Data – Expectations – -Unemployment Claims expected slightly lower at 230K from 232K last week.

    * US Durable Goods – Expectations – rising to 1.5% in March , on top of the 3.0% jump in February, with shipments and inventories also expected to be up strongly at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

    * UK Gfk Consumer Confidence – Expectations – at -7, which would be unchanged from the previous month.

    * Japanese CPI, Labor Data and Retail Sales – Tokyo April CPI likely slipped to an 0.8% y/y clip from 1.0% overall, and on a core basis, rose to 0.9% y/y from 0.8%. March unemployment rate is seen steady at 2.5%, while the job offers/seekers ratio should stay unchanged at 1.58. March retail sales are expected to post a 1.6% y/y clip, slightly down from the previous 1.7% increase.


    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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