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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #451
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    Date : 25th January 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, led by Japan with the Nikkei losing -1.13%, as the dollar was further pressured by U.S. rhetoric on USD and trade. U.S. stock futures are down in tandem with FTSE 100 futures as the focus turns to the ECB meeting today as a strong data round so far this week has rekindled concerns of a major shift in guidance. The strong PMI readings out of the Eurozone and the rise in U.K. employment numbers coupled with a stronger pound saw U.K. bond markets underperforming yesterday and yields surging higher led by Gilts, while the FTSE 100 underperformed amid a wider dip in equities. With the pound remaining strong and the ECB meeting hanging over markets we are unlikely to see a major correction during the AM session and ahead of key surveys in the form of the German Ifo and the U.K. Distributive trade survey. Meanwhile we expect Draghi to continue to move cautiously, although that the ECB is heading for an exit from QE this year is pretty clear.

    FX Update: USDJPY is down for a third straight day, this time logging a four-month low of 108.73. Broader dollar declines has once again been driving, with the buck making fresh lows versus a range of other currencies. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been trading comparatively steadily. Stock markets in Asia have come off the boil amid concerns about Trump’s protectionist bent, and after his Treasury Secretary’s verbal embracement, yesterday, of the weakening dollar trend, which many are calling the “Mnuchin Moment”. The dollar, which is down for a fifth consecutive quarter, which is the most protracted decline since 2007-8, is posting its biggest monthly loss in over two years. There at signs that this is causing some consternation in Asia, with a Bloomberg report today citing South Korean policymaker has affirming that “excessive” movements in USD-KRW are being “monitored.”

    Main Macro Events Today

    ECB Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference – 12:45 and 13:30 GMT – Asset purchasing is ending – but when and how is the Hawk/Dove Debate – how will Draghi play this with and appreciating EUR ?

    German Ifo – Expectations – a slight dip in the reading to 117.0 from 117.2

    Canadian Retails Sales – Expectations – Decrease to 0.7% from 1.5% last time

    Charts of the Day



    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #452
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    Date : 26th January 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th January 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed. Japanese shares dipped as the yen bounced back against the dollar ahead of a speech by U.S. President Trump in Davos. The Nikkei is down 0.16%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 meanwhile are up 1.46% and 0.64% respectively while Australia was closed for a holiday. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher, bond markets are equally mixed and while 10-year Treasury yields are slightly higher, 10-year JGB’s corrected -0.7 bp. Bund futures continued to move up from the lows seen in the wake of Draghi’s presser yesterday and with reports that some at the ECB want to wait until June before tweaking the guidance, Eurozone yields should continue to stabilise, after yesterday’s surge higher. While Eurozone markets will continue to digest yesterday’s presser, U.K. markets have the first reading of Q4 GDP, with growth seen steady at 0.4% q/q, which would bring the annual rate down to 1.4% y/y from 1.7% y/y.ta.

    Japan’s CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in December from a 0.6% y/y pace in November. The core rate (which excludes food) grew 0.9% y/y in December after a matching gain in November. The growth rate of the national and core CPI came in as expected in December. Tokyo core CPI improved to a 1.3% y/y pace in January from a 1.0% y/y pace in December. The core Tokyo CPI slowed to a 0.7% y/y pace from 0.8%. USDJPY has dipped to 109.44 from 109.72, but remains above the 108.52 low seen during North American trading, which gave way to a sharp gain over 109.50 after Trump said the dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and that ultimately he want to see a strong dollar. His comments contrasted with Mnuchin’s “weak dollar ok” comments that had knocked the greenback lower against a broad suite of currencies. The Nikkei is 0.2% firmer, the Hang Seng is up 0.8% and China’s CSI 300 is 0.3% higher. It was a mixed session on Wall Street Wednesday, as the Dow rose 0.5% to a fresh record 26,392.79, the S&P 500 inched 0.06% higher to a record 2839.25 while the Nasdaq fell 0.05%.

    Main Macro Events Today

    UK GDP- Q4 GDP expected to come in unrevised from the preliminary estimated growth readings of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.

    US GDP and Durable Goods – Q4 GDP set to increase 3.0%, a tad slower than 3.2% in Q3. Durable goods orders are projected to rise 0.8% in December vs 1.3% in November, or +0.5% ex-transportation.

    Canadian CPI and Core CPI – the CPI is projected to slow to a 1.9% y/y pace in December from 2.1% in November, as the index drops 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% bounce in November.

    BoE Carney and BoJ Kuroda Speech at 14:00 GMT

    Charts of the Day



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #453
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    Date : 29th January 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th January 2017.




    FX News Today

    President Trump stressed “when the United States grows, so does the world,” in Friday’s WEF Davos speech. That sentiment was illustrated last week as the IMF revised its 2017 global growth forecast up to 3.7%, and to 3.9% for 2018 and 2019, citing in part the stimulative impact from the U.S. tax cuts. This year’s growth would be the fastest and broadest since 2011 when the world was recovering from the financial crisis. This week’s slate of events and data should further underpin the current theme of improved global growth.

    United States: The U.S. has a very full slate of events and data as the first month of 2018 comes to an end. However, it’s not clear any will have significant impact on current market trends of rising stocks and yields, and a weaker dollar. The calendar includes an FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), President Trump’s State of the Union (Tuesday), the Treasury refunding announcement (Wednesday), and key data culminating with the January jobs report (Friday). Earnings will be announced all through the week (this is the heaviest week of the season).President Trump will deliver his first State of the Union on Tuesday. Reports are that most of his speech will cover domestic issues, and especially his trillion dollar infrastructure plans. A $716 bln request for defense spending was leaked last week, and later confirmed by the White House. Meanwhile, the government will quickly have to revisit the potential for another government shutdown as the current continuing resolution expires February 8. Additionally, the Treasury is quickly running out of borrowing authority, perhaps as soon as early March. With that threat overhanging, the debt managers will announce Q1 and Q2 financing projections (Monday) ahead of the February refunding (Wednesday).

    The data calendar is loaded with many of the key reports for the month and will give early reads on various sectors of the economy at the start of 2018. As always, the nonfarm payroll release (Friday) will be the highlight. December personal income and consumption (Monday) will help fine tune GDP forecasts, though they will be a bit anti-climactic after the Q4 GDP report last Friday.The PCE price data will be crucial. It’s the figure the FOMC uses, and the headline index is likely to edge up 0.1%, though the core should increase 0.2%. The Q4 employment cost numbers will be an important update on wages and benefits. Q4 productivity and unit labor costs (Thursday) will also be awaited. Also important is the manufacturing ISM report. U.S. manufacturing has seen a resurgence and has become quite robust globally.Along with those numbers, other releases this week include the January ADP report (Wednesday). Consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely increased to 125.0 from 122.1 thanks to passage of the tax legislation and the ongoing gains on Wall Street.

    Canada: Canada’s calendar is one of the few lean ones this week. November GDP (Wednesday), the only top tier report, is expected to rise 0.3% (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in October. Retail, manufacturing, and wholesale shipment volumes improved in November, while the outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive. The industrial product price index, also due Wednesday, is projected to drop 0.5% in December (m/m, nsa) after the 1.4% gain in November, as gasoline prices declined, commodity prices eroded and the loonie strengthened. The MLI leading indicator for December and the January Markit Canada manufacturing PMI are due Thursday.

    Europe: it’s a very busy week for the Eurozone calendar. But with data likely to give both doves and hawks something over which to argue, the numbers are unlikely to change the overall outlook for the ECB going forward. This week’s data calendar has preliminary inflation stats for January, the final set of confidence data in the form of the ESI and preliminary Q4 GDP numbers. The Eurozone GDP growth (Tuesday) for Q4 expected to show a slight deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q3. Looking ahead confidence remains very strong and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is seen rising to 116.3 from 106.0, after preliminary consumer confidence jumped higher and composite PMI numbers also surprised on the upside.

    UK: Fundamental and political positives have been combining to support what is the most positive investor sentiment toward the UK since the vote to leave the EU in 2016.On the economic front, the preliminary estimate of UK Q4 GDP beat expectations, which followed labour market data showing an unexpected 102k surge in UK employment. On the political front, there are also expectations for the EU and UK officials to agree on a post-Brexit transition period, most likely before the EU leaders’ summit in March. The UK calendar this week features December monthly lending data from the BoE (Wednesday), the January Gfk consumer confidence (Thursday), and the January Markit manufacturing and construction PMI surveys (Thursday and Friday, respectively).

    Japan: December unemployment (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 2.7%, while the job offers/seekers ration should nudge up to 1.57 from 1.56. December personal income and PCE are due Tuesday, with the latter expected up 1.0% y/y from 1.7% in November. December retail sales (Tuesday) should rise 2.4% y/y from 2.2% overall, and increase 0.5% from 1.4% for large retailers. Preliminary December industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.5% y/y from 0.5%, while January consumer confidence (Wednesday) should tick up to 46.0 from 45.7. December housing starts (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 0.2% from -0.4%. December construction orders are also due Wednesday. Thursday brings the January Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI, which is forecast to rise to 54.5 from 54.0.

    China: releases the official CFLP January manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, which is expected to improve to51.7 from 51.6. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is see at 51.8 from 51.5.

    Australia: Q4 CPI (Wednesday) is seen accelerating to a 0.8% pace (q/q, sa) from the 0.6% pace in Q3. The CPI is anticipated to pick-up to a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 1.8% y/y in Q3. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. The Bank meets next week, and no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is anticipated. Import prices (Thursday) are expected to rebound 2.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.6% drop in Q3. Export prices (Thursday) are projected to rebound 3.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 3.0% drop in Q3.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #454
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    Date : 30th January 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th January 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Equities sold off in Asia overnight, U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also in the red, as yields continue to rise. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 2.7% as yields rise to the highest since 2014, setting Bunds on course to tackle the 0.7% mark for the first time since 2015. Investors are gearing up for the Fed decision and dwindling central bank support even as Draghi and the doves at the ECB try to calm nerves and reduce speculation of quick changes in guidance. Tech stocks started the sell off in Asia that saw the Nikkei losing 1.43% as the Yen strengthened. The Hang Seng is down -1.06%, the ASX 200 down -0.87%. Oil prices are down on the day and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 64.87 per barrel.

    French Q4 GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% q/q, while Q3 was revised down fro 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q reported initially. The annual rate accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.3% y/y in the third quarter of 2017. A slightly stronger quarterly number than we expected, but a tad stronger than Bloomberg consensus. The breakdown showed a sharp acceleration in export growth while import growth slowed down, in tandem with consumption growth, which fell back to 0.3% q/q from 0.6% q/q. Gross Fixed Capital Formation rose 1.1% q/q, versus 0.9% q/q in the previous quarter. A surprisingly sluggish consumer sector for the French economy, which tends to be led by consumption and domestic demand, while strong export growth and ongoing investment growth is encouraging, especially as confidence numbers also point to ongoing improvements also on the labour market. A good signal then for overall Eurozone growth and the hawks at the ECB, which argue that the strength of the economy doesn’t need a further expansion of monetary support.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Eurozone Q4 GDP – expected to show a slight deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q3. Growth momentum remains very robust and part of the decline is likely to have been due to special calendar factors.

    Eurozone ESI – The Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator is seen rising to 116.3 in January from 106.0. Already released preliminary consumer confidence jumped higher and composite PMI numbers also surprised on the upside, pointing to ongoing improvements in sentiment, which keeps growth on track to continue to expand at the start of 2018 and will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB which seem to have been pushing for a change in guidance already at the last meeting.

    CB Consumer Confidence – Consumer confidence likely increased to 125.0 from 122.1 thanks to passage of the tax legislation and the ongoing gains on Wall Street.

    FOMC meeting starts today

    Charts of the Day



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #455
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    Date : 31st January 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets started to stabilise in Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are little changed, the ASX 200 closed with a gain of 0.25%, but Japanese markets remained under pressure as the yen rose against the dollar and Nikkei and Topix dropped -0.83% and -1.15% respectively. U.K. stock futures are also in the red amid dollar weakness, but U.S. futures are recovering after yesterday’s decline. Investors had been taking profit as the months draws to a close and warnings over the vulnerability of markets to major corrections are getting louder, while confidence in the global growth outlook and improvements in corporate profits are underpinning sentiment. 10-year yields declined in Asia and the 10-year Treasury yield is also down -1.1 bp but holds above 2.7% as the focus turns to the FOMC announcement. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading around the USD 64 per barrel mark, while industrial metals reversed losses. Released overnight, U.K. GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the European calendar has inflation data for Spain, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as German and Eurozone labour market data,

    Australia’s CPI improved to a 1.9% y/y pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from 1.8% in Q3. CPI grew 0.6% (m/m, sa) after an 0.6% gain in Q3. Both the annual and quarterly comparable gains slightly undershot projections. Growth in the annual core CPI measures was steady or faster: the trimmed mean CPI was 1.8% y/y in Q4 from 1.8% y/y in Q3. The weighted median CPI improved to 2.0% y/y in Q2 from 1.9% y/y in Q4. A gradual improvement is seen in the CPI, but growth rates remain either just below or at the bottom of the RBA’s 2.0% to 3.0% target band. The report is consistent with widespread expectations for the RBA to hold rates steady next week at 1.50%.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Eurozone Unemployment – German jobless figure falling to -17K in January, leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless number unchanged at a very low 5.5% y/y, while the Eurozone jobless rate for December is seen falling back to 8.7% y/y.

    Eurozone CPI- is seen at 1.3% y/yfrom 1.4% y/y.

    US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Private payrolls are projected to have risen 185k after the better than expected 250k climb in December.

    Canadian GDP – November GDP is expected to rise 0.3% (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in October.

    Crude Oil Inventories – expected at 0.1M barrels from 1.1M reported last week.

    FOMC Statement & FED Rates – No changes are expected.

    Charts of the Day



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #456
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    Date : 1st February 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st February 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets mixed, with Japan outperforming after a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI reading, that still left the yen lower. The Nikkei is up 1.684%, the Topix gained 1.84 and the ASX 200 closed with a gain of 0.87%, but Chinese stocks headed south, as the Caixin China manufacturing PMI held steady in January and investors remain cautious as the lunar new year comes into view. Overall though Asian equities started February on a positive note after three days of sell off and following a late recovery on U.S. markets, after the FOMC seemed to set the stage for a rate hike in March yesterday with a statement that saw yields climbing higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 2.75% before falling back and is currently at 2.729%, up 2.4 bp. 10-year JGBs are up 1.5 bp at 0.090%, but stock markets seem to be adapting to higher yields and U.S. stock futures are moving higher as are FTSE 100 futures.

    FX Update: The has dollar has traded firmer in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC announcement, which brought the expected no-change decision in policy settings but was accompanied by upgrades in the Fed’s growth and inflation projections. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is up 0.6% from four-session yesterday’s low at 88.78, logging a high of 89.31. EURUSD has clocked a two-day low at 1.2384 and USDJPY has lifted to a one-week high of 109.61. Wall Street managed to recover from weakness seen in the initial wake of the Fed’s guidance, while Asian stock markets, outside the case of Chinese markets, rallied. January manufacturing PMI reading out of Japan rose to 54.8 from 54.0, with new order growth at a four-year high, The Caixin manufacturing PMI for China met expectations at 51.5, unchanged from December.

    Main Macro Events Today

    Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – are likely to confirm preliminary numbers and confirm that while the headline rate fell back slightly in January, job creation remains strong.

    U.K. Manufacturing PMI – expected to come in with a headline reading of 56.5 after 56.3 in December, and the construction PMI at 52.0 after 52.2 in the month prior

    US ISM Manufacturing PMI – It’s likely to dip 0.5 points to 58.8 after jumping to 59.3 in December.

    Charts of the Day



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #457
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    Date : 2nd February 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd February 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are climbing higher in opening trade, with the 10-year trading at 0.726%, up 1.1 bp on the day, after the 10-year Treasury yield nearly touched 2.8% yesterday in the wake of the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDPNow estimate. The BoJ tried to ease the pressure on bond markets by stepping in with fresh purchase offers, and Treasury yields are also slightly down from the highs seen late yesterday. In Europe meanwhile ECB’s Nowotny added fresh pressure with a renewed call for an end to asset purchases, which he said will also see long yields rising. 2-year Schatz yields are up 0.2 bp at -0.554%, the 5-year is up 0.4 bp at 0.097%, leaving the curve steeper. Peripheral 10-year bonds are underperforming, and DAX and CAC 40 futures are heading south, as long yields rise and the EUR is trading above 1.25 against the dollar. FTSE 100 futures meanwhile pared earlier gains and are moving sideways. U.S. futures are mostly down, after a mixed session in Asia, where the BoJ’s action didn’t prevent a correction in equity markets.

    FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses continued to gain today, with the Japanese currency underperforming concomitantly with the BoJ ramping up JGB purchases under its yield curve control framework to keep the 10-year yield at 0%. USDJPY clocked a nine-day high of 109.82, and EURJPY stormed to a 30-month high of 137.24. The BoJ bought Y450 bln of 5- to 10-year JGBs today, offering to buy unlimited quantities of 10-year paper. Reuters cited a BoJ official confirming that the actions enable the BOJ to firmly adhere to its current policy, and that it took steps after “large increase” in yields. The “large increase” was apparently the 10-year JGB yield having nudged above 0.1%. Other factors driving the yen lower include the rekindling of the global stock market rally and higher dollar yield advantage in USDJPY, following the Fed’s upgraded growth and inflation forecasts this week. Elsewhere, the euro has been showing moderate outperformance, led by the strong gain in EUR-JPY. EURUSD logged a high at 1.2523 late yesterday, and today found demand on dips under 1.2500. Last week’s 38-month high at 1.2537 is back within spitting distance.

    Main Macro Events Today

    UK Construction PMI – are likely to fell slightly in January, down to 52.00 from 52.2 seen last month.

    U.K. NFP & Unemployment rate – expected to increase by 180K from 148K,while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.1% in October.

    US UoM Consumer Sentiment – The final January consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan likely improved to 95.0 compared to the 94.4 preliminary.

    Charts of the Day



    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #458
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    Date : 5th February 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th February 2017.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    It was a wild ride last week which ended with a devilish 666 point drop on the Dow and a 6.5 bp surge in the 30-year Treasury bond rate. The bearish tone was not isolated to Wall Street as all almost indexes were down with losses ranging from 1% to nearly 5%. Bond yields were generally higher too, led by the 30-year Treasury’s 15 bp climb to 3.08%. Factors weighing on the markets were worries over central bank tightening, potentially rising inflation, disappointing earnings, technical, and bearish momentum. However, selloffs have been expected given record highs on equities and still low rates on bonds, so it’s no time to panic. Fundamentals remain bullish and the FOMC isn’t going to panic by accelerating its policy path. However, all is not lost. Friday’s 666 point decline pales in comparison to the near 7200 point gain since President Trump’s election. Fundamentals point to strong economic growth this year, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate pointing to a 5.4% rate of growth in Q1.

    United States: Markets are likely to remain shaky as the new week begins with buyers waiting for the dust to settle before stepping back in. Though the “Nunes memo” wasn’t the catalyst for the plunge on Wall Street, it did keep potential dip buyers away. The most important indicator will be the January services ISM (Monday), expected to edge up to 57.0 (median 56.6) from a revised 56.0 in December. The trade deficit (Tuesday) should widen for a fifth straight month, to -$52.7 bln (median -$52.0 bln)from -$50.5 bln. Net exports were a big drag in the recent Q4 GDP report, though which was a function of a large increase in imports, reflective of the strength in consumption. Other releases include December JOLTS (Tuesday), consumer credit (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday), and wholesale trade (Friday). earnings season continues with Pharma’s, Disney and BP taking centre stage. Fedspeak continues and new Chair Powell takes the hot seat officially.

    Canada: January employment (Friday), expected to show a 20.0k gain after the 78.6k surge in December and 79.5k rise in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.7%, which is the lowest for the current series that goes back to 1976. Wages will again be in the spotlight, with the average hourly wage projected to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December. The trade balance (Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -C$2.1 bln in December from -C$2.5 bln in November. Export values are seen growing 2.0% m/m after the 3.7% surge in November. Housing starts (Thursday) are anticipated to slow further to a 210.0k unit pace in January from 217.0k in December. Building permits (Wednesday) are projected to expand 2.0% in December after the 7.7% tumble in November. The December new home price index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m after the 0.1% gain in November. The January Ivey PMI is due (Tuesday).

    Europe: The calendar quiets after last week’s flurry of releases, giving traders a lot of time to assess the volatile market conditions. And the few reports on tap won’t change the overall outlook for the economy, or the ECB. Growth surprised on the upside in 2017 and while confidence data remains robust, we expect a slowdown in momentum this year with political risks, including Italian elections and Brexit talks, looming on the horizon. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders (Tuesday), seen rebounding in December and rising 0.4% m/m (median 0.7%) after correcting -0.4% m/m in November. German industrial production for December (Wednesday), meanwhile, is seen falling -0.8 m/m (median -0.6%) after much stronger than expected growth of 3.4% m/m in November. Finally, Germany has December trade (Wednesday) and overall data are expected to confirm a slight deceleration in the quarterly GDP growth rate in Q4. For the Eurozone as a whole, the final readings of services and composite PMIs are expected to confirm preliminary readings of 57.6 and 58.6, respectively, signaling a robust pace of expansion at the start of 2018. The calendar also has Eurozone December retail sales, French and Italy production numbers, French trade and Italian inflation.

    UK: The pound closed out January with just over a net 5.0% gain against the dollar, the biggest monthly advance Her Majesty’s currency has seen since July 2010. The outperformance was driven by expectations for the BoE to make a hawkish shift in policy guidance at its MPC meeting this week. the February meeting of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting (announcing Thursday), which will be accompanied by the release of the central bank’s quarterly inflation report. While the BoE is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.5% and QE totals unchanged, the meeting is likely to mark a sea change in approach after BoE Governor Carney last week forewarned that the central bank is beginning to turn its focus to a more conventional stance of limiting inflation. The inflation report is likely see the BoE upgrade its growth assessment, particularly the scope for self-sustaining private sector growth while highlighting a tightening labour market and rising wages. As for inflation, the marked ascent in the pound will likely see the BoE downgrade nearer-term CPI projections, but at the same time note increasing risk for second round inflationary pressures as labour markets tighten and spare capacity shrinks. The BoE will also likely point to factory selling prices having hit their highest rate of gain since 1984.Data this week includes the release of the January services PMI (Monday), which will follow sub-forecast construction and manufacturing PMI surveys for the same month. We expect the headline services PMI to dip slightly, to 54.0 (median same) from 54.2 in December. Production data for December is also up this week (Friday), where we anticipate a 0.9% m/m decline

    Japan: The December current account surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to JPY 1,000 bln from 1,347 bln. January bank loan figures are also due Thursday. The December tertiary industry index (Friday) should rise 0.5% m/m from the prior 1.1% rise.

    China: The January trade report (Thursday) should reveal a narrowed $53.0 bln surplus, from $54.7 in December. January CPI (Friday) is penciled in at up 1.6% y/y from 1.8%, while January PPI (Friday) should ease to 4.3% y/y from 4.9%. Services PMI was up significantly earlier at 54.7.

    Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday) is the focus. We expect no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. The Bank’s quarterly statement on monetary policy will be released (Friday), which will detail the current growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks (Thursday) at the A50 Australian Economic Forum dinner in Sydney. The trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to improve to -A$100 mln in December from -A$628 mln in November. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen falling 0.5% (m/m, sa) in December after the 1.2% bounce in November. Housing investment (Friday) is projected to drop 2.0% (m/m, sa) in December after the 2.1% jump in November.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #459
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    Date : 6th February 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2017.




    FX News Today

    Asian Wrap : The sell off in stock markets deepened in Asia overnight, with Nikkei, Topix and Hang Seng loosing more than 4%, the ASX 200 more than 3%, the CSI nearly 3%. With this level of correction bond markets benefited from a flight to safety and yields declined markedly, after yesterday’s fresh move higher. With the global equity rout deepening, the question is will central bankers take note and with the change at the top of the Fed speculation that the sell off will halt the rise in rates is mounting. In Japan Kuroda told parliament that it would be inappropriate to raise the yield target even by a small margin. Meanwhile focus has shifted to plunge in a popular exchange traded fund, that was designed to bet against volatility and tanked in after hour trade.

    FX Update: The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged a two-week high at 89.72 before settling around the 89.50 mark, which is still just over 1% from the low seen last Friday. USDJPY clocked an eight-day low at 108.50 as Asia as the yen continued to find safe haven bids as global stock markets continued to head south. Driving risk aversion is spiking sovereign yields and the concomitant rise inflation expectations and prospects for the Fed to lead key central banks to take away monetary policy stimulus. Expectations are for USDJPY to grind lower over the coming days and weeks, though see risk of there being greater magnitude of declines in AUDJPY, which tends to correlate strongly with global stock market direction. Today’s strongest currency is the NZD ahead of tomorrows rate decision.

    German Factory Orders: German manufacturing orders jumped 3.8% m/m in December, much more than anticipated and with November revised up to -0.1% m/m from -0.4% m/m reported initially. An exceptionally strong number that points to ongoing strong growth in manufacturing. The statistical office reported that the main impulses came from export orders and here mainly orders from other Eurozone countries, which jumped sharply higher at the end of the year.

    Main Macro Events Today

    US Trade Balance – a further fall to $-52.0 bln from $-50.5bln for the December number

    CAD Ivey PMI – Expected to rise from 60.4 to 61.0

    NZD Jobs Data – Q4 Employment Change (No Change expected -0.2%) , Unemployment (No Change expected 4.6%) and Participation Rate (a fall to 70.8% from 71.1%)


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #460
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    Date : 7th February 2017.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th February 2017.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are higher in early trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.7% as of 7:28GMT, the 2-year up 0.4 bp at -0.576%, leaving the curve steeper once again as European stock futures move higher, with the DAX future leading the way and up 0.86% after a late rally on Wall Street yesterday. Asian markets also tried to recovered, but the rally started to fizzle out later in the session as rate hike concerns resurfaced and while the Nikkei managed a small gain of 0.16%, the CSI 300 closed with a loss of -2.37%. The relationship between bond and stock markets remains ambiguous but for now improving risk appetite is underpinning stocks and the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral bond markets, versus Bunds. Released at the start of the session, German industrial production corrected -0.6% m/m in December, broadly in line with expectations after a 3.1% m/m rise in November.. Still to come are U.K. house price numbers and a German 10-year auction.

    FX Update: The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Wall Street staged a solid rebound yesterday, and Eurostoxx futures are pointing to a positive open on European bourses, though S&P futures have shed 0.8% in overnight trade and Asian markets turned lower, giving back intraday gains and turning negative in some cases. Japan’s Nikke 225 closed with a fractional 0.2% gain, while the Shanghai Composite is showing a loss of 1.8%, and South Korea’s KOSPI a 2.3% loss. This backdrop saw USDJPY and yen crosses grind lower, giving back some of the rebound gains seen yesterday during Wall Street’s rebound. Volatility is likely to remain high in the coming sessions, and we expect to see further dollar and yen outperformance relative to most other currencies.

    Charts of the Day




    Main Macro Events Today

    Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
    Crude Oil Inventories
    Canadian Building Permits – projected to expand 2.0% in December after the 7.7% tumble in November.
    RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement – The 1.75% policy setting expected to be left in place.
    RBNZ Press Conference at 21:00 GMT


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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