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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #471
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    Date : 22nd February 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields moved higher across Asia, after yesterday’s correction, thus putting fresh pressure on stock markets. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.1 bp at 0.046%, other markets under-performed, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.1 bp at 2.939%. Investors fretted over the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the economy as the FOMC minutes saw risks roughly balanced, but mentioned increased upside risks to the near term. U.S. futures are heading south, after a mixed session in Asia. Mainland China bourses rallied in catch up trade and the CSI 300 is up 1.99%, while Nikkei and Hang Seng corrected markedly and the ASX closed with a modest gain of 0.12%. The Topix meanwhile lost -0.88%, the Nikkei -1.07% and the Hang Seng also nearly 1%. The yen strengthened against the dollar and oil prices slipped back with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.07 per barrel.

    FX Update: FOMC minutes showed a majority saw stronger growth in the economy and agreed a gradual rate hike approach was still appropriate. Indeed, a number of policymakers raised their growth forecasts since the December meeting and saw upside risks to growth. However, officials noted “few signs of a broad-based pickup in wage growth.” And “almost all” do expect inflation to reach to the 2% goal. Several members did caution about financial market imbalances. The report supports expectations for a 25 bp tightening in March, but of course doesn’t settle the issue of 2 or 4 rate hikes this year, which is dependent on the data reflecting the economy and inflation. Fed funds futures are little changed after the FOMC minutes, but are paring small losses earlier, in tandem with the slide in nominal yields. The minutes didn’t really tell us anything new. But the futures were primed for a slightly more hawkish tone.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * German IFO – expected to correct to 117.0 from 117.6 in January, with the risk to the downside after the sharper than expected corrections in PMI readings.

    * UK GDP Data – unrevised GDP data for Q4 last year, anticipated at 0.5% q/q and 1.5% y/y.

    * ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – will be scrutinised for indications of how far the ECB’s discussions about the expected change in guidance have progressed. It is widely anticipated that a growing number of council members will be arguing for a change in language as the ECB heads toward the March meeting, which will also include updated staff projections.

    * Canadian Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to dip 0.3% m/m in December on the heels of the tepid 0.2% gain in November.

    * US Unemployment Claims and Oil Inventories – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to hold at 230k in the BLS survey week, versus the week-ended February 10. Continuing claims are expected to fall 12k to 1,930k

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #472
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    Date : 27th February 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th February 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Yields dipped in Asia. 10-year rates are down -1.0 bp in South Korea after the central bank left policy on hold. 10-year JGBs are down -0.5 bp at 0.032%, 10-year Treasury yields fell back -0.4 bp to 2.859%, after initially trying to move higher. Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming and European stock futures are higher, after a mixed session in Asia, where markets in Hong Kong and mainland China sold off, while Topix and Nikkei closed with solid gains. U.S. futures are heading south, however, and the stock rally that was fuelled by hopes that central banks will slow the withdrawal of support, is starting to stutter ahead of Powell’s testimony that is hoped to give a clearer guidance on the outlook. Draghi continued to sit on the fence yesterday and we expect Powell’s comments to be also rather balanced. Today’s local calendar focuses on German inflation numbers and Eurozone ESI economic confidence.

    FX Update: The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today as many market participants sit on their hands into the Congressional testimony of the new Fed chairman, Powell. USDJPY has held a narrow range, logging a high of 107.10 before settling in the upper 106.00s, holding comfortably within yesterday’s range. EURUSD lifted to an intraday peak of 1.2342 before settling around 1.2330, leaving yesterday’s high at 1.2355 unchallenged. Regarding Powell, most Fed watchers, including ourselves, expect he will signal a gradualist approach to tightening, maintaining continuity in approach from his predecessor, Yellen. This expectation was cited in equity market summaries yesterday as justifying the strong close on Wall Street, though U.S. equity index futures have come off the boil in overnight trading, and stocks have been mixed in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed with a 1% gain but Chinese and some other markets have posted losses. The New Zealand dollar came under pressure after NZ trade data showed an unexpected deficit in January of NZ$ 566 mln. NZDUSD logged a two-session low of 0.7273.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Eurozone ESI – rounds up the February confidence numbers and a dip to 114.3 is expected from 114.7 after preliminary consumer confidence already dipped sharply. Unlike other confidence readings the ESI already dipped in January, but overall readings remain at high levels and consistent with ongoing robust growth with PMI readings suggesting that job creation remains strong, which backs expectations for gradually rising wages going forward.

    * US CB Consumer Confidence- The Consumer confidence should remain buoyant at 126.7 in February and the Richmond Fed index is sent to rise to 16.0 in February from 14.

    * US Core Durable Goods – seen sinking 2.5% in January from 2.8%, while advanced indicators goods trade gap may widened to -$73.4 bln in January from -$72.3 bln. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index, seen rising 0.4% to 257.0, while Case-Shiller home prices may be flat in December.

    * Fed Chair Powell Testifies

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #473
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    Date : 28th February 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th February 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: : Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, as yields moved higher in the wake of Powell’s testimony yesterday and weaker than expected data out of China and Japan added to pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield is down from earlier highs, but remains up 0.7 bp on the day and sightly above the 2.9% mark. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.9 bp at 0.042%. Stock markets meanwhile got stung by the reminder that central banks are still on course to take out stimulus and Powell’s reference to the risk of overheating and the Nikkei closed with a loss of 1.44%, the Topix was down -1.23% at the close. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.46% and -0.62% respectively, as China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 from 51.3 and Japan industrial production dropped -6.6% m/m. U.S. stock futures are also heading south as are UK100 futures and the front end WTI future is down on the day at USD 62.72 per barrel. The very busy data calendar today include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone inflation numbers, the Swiss KOF and a German 10-year auction.

    German GfK consumer confidence dipped to 10.8 with March numbers from 11.0 in February. An unexpected correction after the surprisingly strong February numbers. The full details for February, show economic expectations falling back in tandem with income expectations and the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save turned even more negative. Overall readings remains at very high levels, like business confidence surveys, but suggest some levelling off which will back the arguments of the ECB doves for caution with regard to any changes in guidance.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * German Labour Data – Confidence readings may have fallen back more than expected in February, but preliminary PMI reports still suggested that companies remain sufficiently optimistic about the recovery to take on more staff and German jobless numbers expected to dip -15K in February, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at just 5.4%.

    * Eurozone Inflation – The Eurozone HICP for February was expected to show a headline rate of 1.2% y/y, but has a bias to the downside after yesterday’s preliminary readings from Spain and Germany. The former may have come in higher than expected, but the latter fell back more than anticipated. Still, the German numbers also suggested that much of the dip was due to base effects from energy and food prices, so the real focus will be on core inflation, rather than the headline rate and even German numbers suggest that could remain steady.

    * US Prelim GDP – a second release of Q4 GDP likely trimmed to 2.5% from 2.6%.


    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #474
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    Date : 1st March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: :Asian bond yields mostly dropped, with the 10-year JGB down -0.8 bp at 0.035%, after dovish BoJ comments. The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilised, after yesterday’s slide and is trading at 2.86%. The dip in yields yesterday did nothing to boost stock market confidence and Wall Street closed with broad losses. The negative sentiment spilled over into Asian markets and Nikkei and Topix closed with losses of 1.56% and 1.59% respectively, and stocks were also under pressure in Hong Kong and Australia with materials and health care stocks leading the way. Mainland China bourses outperformed after a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and the CSI 300 is up 0.42%. Markets remain nervous ahead of Powell’s hearing, after the Fed Chairman’s comments hit markets earlier in the week. Reports that Trump plans a 25% tariff on steel imports is adding to pressure. U.S. futures are mostly down, while oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.70 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland. the U.K. also has lending data, the Eurozone jobless numbers and there are bond auctions in Spain and France.

    FX Update: The dollar has remained underpinned versus most currencies, bolstering to the USD index (DXY) to a five-week high of 90.74 and pushing EURUSD to a six-week low of 1.2183. AUDUSD has registered the biggest move in trade so far on the calendar day out of the currencies we track, showing a 0.4% decline, with the Australian dollar underperforming amid reports that Trump is set to announce a 25% tariff on U.S. steel imports. Australian is the world’s biggest export of iron ore, which is the base metal of steel. AUDUSD logged a two-month low at 0.7717, and AUDJPY, a cross that many consider is a forex market barometer of global investor risk appetite, has forayed into nine-month low terrain. USDJPY, while having recouped to the upper 106.0s, edged out a two-day low of 106.53 earlier in Tokyo trade, and EURJPY posted its lowest level since last mid September, at 129.85. The yen’s outperformance has come amid a backdrop of falling equity markets amid a backdrop of Fed tightening expectations and concerns about Trump starting trade wars.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK & Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – The February Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, is seen unchanged at at 58.5.

    * US Core PCE and Jobless claims – Initial jobless claims for the February 17 week will be scrutinized at it coincides with the BLS survey week. It is expected to released at 226K from 222K last week. Personal income is expected to grow 0.2% in January, while consumption should rise 0.2% as well.

    * Fed Chair Powell Testifies

    * US ISM Manufacturing PMI – ISM is expected to drop to 58.7 in February from 59.1.


    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #475
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    Sorry but do you have bitcoin or cryptocurrency analysis?


  6. #476
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    Date : 2nd March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields are mixed in Asia. 10-year JGBs trailed Treasuries and sold off, with the yield up 0.8 bp at 0.055%, while the 10-year Treasury yields jumped 2 bp to 2.83%. Yields headed south in Australia and New Zealand. The global stock market sell off meanwhile continued in Asia overnight, Nikkei and Topix lost 2.5% and 1.8% respectively, undermined by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs in imported steel and aluminium, which together with a stronger yen weighed on exporters. The rise in long yields moved amid a drop in the jobless rate and a rise in Tokyo inflation added to pressure. U.S. futures are starting to stabilise, however, oil prices remain under pressure, with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.92 per barrel. In Europe,the 10-year Bund yield is down -2.1 bp at 0.616% as of 7:25GMT, extending opening losses after weaker than expected German retail sales and a dip in import price inflation at the start of the session. European stock futures are deeply in the red, after a sell off in Asia overnight. The local calendar still has the U.K. CIPS construction PMI as well as Eurozone producer price inflation.

    Fed Chairman Powell had been largely bullish, Fed’s Dudley later seemed at ease with 4 hikes and that didn’t help along with the tariff/trade concerns. Powell’s testimony included a lot of discussion was on the labor market, wages, and inflation. He did note at Tuesday’s hearing that there was still some slack in the system, but was the markets instead focused on his comments about keeping a gradual tightening posture in place to prevent the economy from “overheating,” as well as on his optimism on growth following tax legislation. He stressed several times that wage inflation isn’t at a point of acceleration and isn’t expected to push up inflation. He does expect wages and prices to be moving up, but he didn’t suggest inflation is on the brink or a breakout. The PCE deflator data supports that conclusion. It’s still the case the Fed will increase the funds rate another 25 bps at the end of the month.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Prime Minister May Speech

    * UK Construction PMI – the construction PMI expected to come in at 50.5 from 50.2, which would affirm a sector barely limping along.

    * BOE Gov Carney Speaks in London, for the evolution of money and the emergence of Crypto-currencies.

    * Canadian GDP – December GDP is seen flat (0.0%) after the 0.4% jump in November. The separate GDP report is projected to reveal a 2.0% real growth pace (q/q, saar) following the 1.7% growth rate in Q3.

    * US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Final Michigan sentiment for February may tick up to 99.5 from 99.9 prelim.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #477
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    Date : 5th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th March 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    The financial markets are always subject to risks, be they interest rate, credit, currency, monetary, or geopolitical — but it’s the sensitivity to the uncertainties that waxes and wanes. Last year was a virtual one-way trip higher for global equities as many possible hazards were ignored amid bullish momentum and surging optimism. But that tone has given way to a much more nervous and volatile climate, especially as key central banks are discussing, or are in the process of, exiting QE, while political headwinds abound.

    The markets will open Monday with ongoing focus on President Trump’s decision to impose import tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%), with details and implementation expected this week.The tariff news also took central banks off the front page for a time. But worries over the changing dynamic to less stimulative postures will again be at the forefront with policy meetings this week from the BoJ and ECB, and the key U.S. nonfarm payroll report on tap, which will be a guide for the March 20, 21 FOMC.

    United States: U.S. markets have a lot on their plate this week. Much of the early focus will be on any details of the import tariffs President Trump plans to impose. Though the direct effects on the U.S. would be limited, the bigger consequence would be from global repercussions and any retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, data and Fedspeak will be scrutinized this week ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, as they could factor into outlooks on the Fed’s economic projections to be released then, along with the dot plot for 2018 and 2019, after Chairman Powell’s upbeat assessment of the economy and his confidence in rising inflation in his Monetary Policy Report boosted expectations for a shift from 3 to 4 tightenings this year. The February employment report (Friday) tops the data calendar this week. Remember it was the acceleration in average hourly earnings to a 2.9% y/y in the January, the strongest since 2009, that was a catalyst for much of the bond selloff which pushed the 10-year yield over the 2.90% mark, a four year high. That statistic, along with the payroll gain, will be the scrutinized. Other important data this week includes the ISM nonmanufacturing report, along with January trade and revised Q4 productivity. The January trade deficit (Wednesday) should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$55.3 bln From December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 (Wednesday) should be unrevised at -0.1% (, after firming to 2.7% from Q2’s 1.5% in the Advance numbers. Other reports on the week include the February ADP private payroll survey, the precursor to the BLS jobs report, along with January factory orders and wholesale trade.

    Canada:It promises to be a busy week in Canada for both data and events. The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement (Wednesday), which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. Uncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The economic data slate is highlighted by employment (Friday), projected to show a 25.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The January trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen narrowing to -C$3.0 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen edging lower to a 215.0k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits (Thursday) are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December.

    Europe: The focus this week is on the ECB meeting on Thursday and given the weak round of confidence and inflation data coupled with ongoing market volatility, only minor tweaks to the guidance are expected, with the cautious camp still in the majority and even previously hawkish members like Coeure apparently concerned by recent market moves. The hawks meanwhile can take solace in the fact that even after the recent dip in yields, they are still considerably higher than back in December. The current QE schedule is set to run until the end of September and there is no need for the central bank to commit to an end date for QE before June at the earliest, more likely July, although if the hawks become too insistent Draghi could take out the reference to the possibility of a renewed increase in size – i.e. monthly purchase volumes, something that at this juncture, nobody expects anyway.

    With February confidence data as well as preliminary inflation out of the way the calendar calms down this week. The Eurozone has the 3rd releases of Q4 GDP, which is expected to confirm the quarterly growth rate at 0.6% q/q , leaving the annual rate at 2.7% y/y and the focus on the full breakdown, which will be published for the first time. German manufacturing orders are likely to attract more attention and should support the doves at the ECB, as we are looking for a correction of -1.5 m/m in January , after the surprising December jump of 3.8% m/m. German industrial production for January, meanwhile, is seen rising 0.2% m/m, after a dip of -0.6% m/m in December.The calendar also has Eurozone retail sales as well as German trade data, and French industrial production numbers for January. Supply comes from Germany, which auctions 5-year Bobls on Wednesday.

    UK: The calendar this week brings the February Markit services PMI (Monday), the February BRC retail sales report (Tuesday), and January industrial production and trade figures (Friday). The pound under-performed last week, losing an average 1.3% versus dollar, euro and yen. Brexit related news has been think in the news the British government hurries to come up with a clear negotiating position ahead of the March 22 EU leader’s summit. Prime Minister May gave a keynote speech last Friday, which is one of a series of speeches by herself and senior cabinet members laying out what the government hopes to achieve with the EU in a future trade agreement, including ideas on how to accommodate deep-seated Irish concerns about the post-Brexit border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It remains uncertain, if not unlikely, that the EU will agree to May’s idea for a new customs partnership and the bespoke sector-by-sector deals that she is looking for. EU officials have repeatedly and consistently stated that there can be no “cherry picking,” so there remain a lot of known unknowns as to how Brexit will unfold. May’s speech was notable for the fact that she finally admitted that the UK will have less access to the single market, implying that a “soft” Norway or Swiss-like deal is off the cards. The pound has continued to trade at about an average discount of between about 12% and 15% versus levels seen ahead of the vote to leave the EU in 2016.

    Japan: the markets will await the BoJ meeting (Thursday, Friday) for any fresh insights on QE after Governor Kuroda told parliament last week he could see ending stimulus in fiscal 2019. Meanwhile, the second release of Q4 GDP (Thursday) should see an upward revision to a 1.1% q/q annualized growth rate from the 0.5% pace in the Advance release. February bank loans (Thursday) are expected to accelerate slightly to a 2.5% y/y rate from 2.4%. January personal income and PCE (Friday), should see the latter down 0.5% y/y from -0.1% previously.

    China: the National People’s Congress kicks off its two-week meeting on Monday and will be monitored closely for new developments and especially in the wake of possible U.S. tariffs. The February trade report (Thursday) should see the surplus widen to $25.0 bln from $20.3 bln. February CPI (Friday) is penciled in firming to a 2.1% y/y clip from 1.5%, with PPI seen slowing slightly to 4.0% y/y from 4.3%. There could be some distortions in all of the data from the week-long Lunar New Year holidays

    Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) is expected to hold rates steady at the current 1.50% setting. The Q4 current account (Tuesday) is seen widening to a -A$11.0 bln deficit from -A$9.1 bln in Q3. Retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to rise 0.5% in January after the 0.5% m/m drop in December. GDP (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.6% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q3. The trade balance (Thursday) is anticipated to shift to a A$0.5 bln surplus in January from the -A$1.4 bln deficit in December. RBA Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “The Changing Nature of Investment” to the AFR Business Summit in Sydney.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



  8. #478
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    Date : 6th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.3 bp at 0.651% as of 7:20GMT, French 10-year yields are also up amid a wider rise in long yields, with 10-year JGBs up 0.046% and 10-year Treasury yields up 0.2 bp. Stock markets continued to bounce back in Asia as investor fears of a global trade war receded and the RBA left the cash rate unchanged and sounded slightly less optimistic on its growth projections. Italian 10-year yields are slightly down and below the 2% mark and it seems the messy Italian election result won’t lead to a wider crisis in Eurozone bond markets. Stocks meanwhile continue to recover and European stock futures are moving higher with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.79%, ASX 200 rose 1.14% and the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 2.26% and 1.21% respectively. Meanwhile, Oil prices are also higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 62.68 per barrel. Trump said he’s not backing down on tariffs in the steel and aluminum sectors, though Mexico and Canada want to talk about them in the context of NAFTA. Trump suggested that if the U.S. can make a good deal on NAFTA, then the tariffs can be addressed for Canada and Mexico. He said the biggest problem on trade is China and he doesn’t think there will be a trade war inspired by the steel and aluminum tariffs.

    FX Update: The dollar majors have been in consolidation mode. with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, along with the main crosses, including EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDCAD, trading at near net unchanged levels as the London interbank market takes to its collective desk. This has come amid a backdrop of recovering global stock markets. EURUSD has traded on either side of 1.2350, drifting lower in the latest phase, to around 1.2335. The pair has held below the 13-day high seen yesterday at 1.2365. USDJPY settled lower, back around 105.20 after scaling to a three-session high in the wake of the Tokyo fixing. EURJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action, posting fresh highs before turning lower.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Swiss CPI – expected to rise at 0.2% from decline seen on January.

    * FOMC Member Dudley Speech – takes part in a round-table on the U.S. Virgin Islands recovery effort.

    * Canadian Ivey PMI- Canada’s Ivey PMI expected to rise to 56.3 after falling to 55.2 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from 60.4 in December. The Ivey remains consistent with an expanding economy.

    * MPC Member Haldane and RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #479
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    Date : 7th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.3 bp at 0.655% in early trade, the 2-year down -1.4 bp at 0.58%. The correction comes amid a wider decline in long yields globally, led by Treasuries. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures and after a sell off in equities during the Asian session as concerns about a global trade war pick up again. S&P 500 futures are down over 1% on Cohn resignation, the head of the National Economic Council, and who had been key figure in Trump’s administration. Many White House watchers say Cohn his departure is over Trump’s sudden push toward trade protectionism. The news broke after the close of the regular session on Wall Street yesterday, and the losses in index futures foreshadow to a sharp decline at the open later today. The narrative is that Cohn’s departure effectively signals that the protectionist cohort of advisers in the administration, led by the head of the Office of Trade, Navarro, have won out, leaving the White House without a heavyweight advocate of globalization sentiment, suggesting that Trump will go the distance with his trade protectionist campaign pledge, risking a trade war that most economists, see as negative for the U.S. and global economies. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP as well as U.K. house price data from the Halifa.

    FX Update: The yen has rallied on a safe haven bid following the resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of the National Economic Council, which many onlookers are taking as effectively signalling that the Trump administration will go the distance in trade protectionism. The biggest movers out of the main yen crosses have been CADJPY and AUDJPY, with the Canadian and Australian economies seen as being exposed to a global trade war. The confirmation hearings of the new BoJ deputy governors today produced more dovish rhetoric, with Amamiya, for instance, saying that it is “very regrettable” that inflation hasn’t hit target yet, though to little impact on the yen.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Eurozone GDP – Q4 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q, and 2.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary reading. This leaves the focus on the full breakdown, which will be released for the first time and is likely to show ongoing investment and a pick up in exports, with the latter helping to underpin growth at the end of last year.

    * ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , Trade Balance – The January trade deficit should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$54.1 bln from December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 should be unrevised at -0.1%, while Unit labor costs are expected to be bumped up to 2.1%. Tthe February ADP private payroll survey, expected to reveal 195K jobs excluding the farming industry and government, from 234K last month.

    * Canadian Trade Balance – The January trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.5 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3.

    * BOC Rate Statement & Interest rate Decision – The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement , which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. In January, strong recent data, an economy operating close to capacity and inflation close to target was cited alongside the decision to reduce accommodation. Economic data since the January announcement have been somewhat disappointing, with the 1.7% gain in Q4 GDP undershooting the BoC’s 2.5% estimateUncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The BoC will not hold a press conference, while the next MPR is in April, leaving a short and sweet announcement for the market to mull.

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #480
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
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    Date : 8th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Concerns about a global trade war are receding and after European stocks bounced back during the PM session yesterday, Asian markets followed and rebounded from the lows of the previous session, despite a tepid close on Wall Street. Nikkei and Topix rose 0.54% and -.35% respectively, the ASX was up 0.69% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 gained 1.40% and 0.76% so far. The slew of data releases helped to shrug off trade concerns. Japan GDP came in higher than expected and showed an annualised quarterly rate of 1.6%, versus Bloomberg expectations of 1.0%. Japan’s economy has grown for eight straight quarters, as global growth has underpinned export demand, supporting business investment and corporate profits. However, we have yet to see robust wage gains or consumer spending. Inflation has accelerated but remains well short of the BoJ’s 2% target. China’s trade surplus also came in better than expected, with exports growth accelerating sharply. The positive sentiment also seems to be spilling over with U.S. futures moving higher.

    FX Update: USDJPY has remained within yesterday’s range so far in Asian trading today, posting a range so far of 105.92-106.20. Market participants are still fathoming Trump’s tariffs, which will reportedly be signed off on today, and become effective in two weeks time, but which will include temporary exceptions on Mexico and Canada (subject to how the Trump administration deems NAFTA negotiations go). Bitcoin has slumped 10.3% to the $9600 area compared to 24-hour highs of $10,911 and lows of $9,450, breaking back below $10k after a period of consolidation and recovery after its downdraft earlier in the year. Coincidentally, Bloomberg is reporting that the bankruptcy attorney, Nobuaki Kobayashi, for creditors of the failed Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange has sold some $400 mln in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash since September and has another $1.9 bln to go. His aim is reportedly to get the highest price possible and has been averaging as sale price of $10,015. That’s certainly one whale of a headwind for gains from here, along with SEC crackdown on rogue digital exchanges and other potential regulation.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * ECB Rates Decision – The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged and confirm the current QE schedule that runs until the end of September, leaving the focus on the forward guidance. ECB officials are increasingly split on the question of the guidance on the QE program, with a growing number of council members arguing for a commitment to an end date for net asset purchases as the economy strengthens. Data since the last meeting backed the dovish camp as are political headwinds with trade war fears and Brexit still hanging over markets and underpinning volatility. The Italian election had only temporary impact, however, and Germany’s Merkel was finally confirmed as Chancellor so the hawks also have something to argue with.

    * Canadian Building Permits & NHPI – Housing starts are seen edging lower to a 216.6k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December.

    * ECB Press Conference –

    * BOC Gov Poloz and Gov council Member Lane Speeches

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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