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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #21
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    Date : 8th July 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th July 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD traded between the nearest support and resistance levels yesterday as was expected. The 1.0930 support attracted buyers and after printing a low of 1.0916 price rallied to 1.1052. Weekly pivot bar from end of May has been providing support but at the time of writing there are no definite signs of price reversing the current downtrend. Price is trending lower in a 4h 2 stdv regression channel and is at the time of writing near channel high and not that far from 1.1048 resistance level. The nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1048.

    Greece gets until Sunday to reach a deal. Euro group and EU leaders meeting yesterday once again failed to reach an agreement with Greece amid a lack of concrete proposals from Tsipras. Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Euro group ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request. The final deadline to reach an agreement at technical level seems to be Friday and a deal must be reached at a summit on Sunday. German Chancellor Merkel said she was not particularly optimistic and EU Commission President Juncker said Grexit scenarios have been prepared in detail. The ECB meanwhile stands ready to try and limit contagion. It seems this time the game really will be up Sunday if there is no miracle.

    Eurogroup and EU summit yesterday once again didn’t get very far amid the lack of new proposals from Greece. EU President Tusk was left to say that a formal request for ESM aid was expected today, Thursday at the latest, while stressing the strict conditionality of ESM treaties. So if Tsipras thought by not extending the bailout and going to the ESM instead he would get more leeway he will have been disappointed. Greece said it will send a formal request for ESM aid today, while EU’s Dombrovkis said Greece was ready to present reform proposals tomorrow.

    In an unusually clear way Tusk set Sunday as the very last deadline for a deal with Greece, while urging both sides to work together to come to an agreement. German Chancellor Merkel was not very optimistic however and EU Commission President Juncker said detailed Grexit scenarios have been prepared. The ECB meanwhile continues to stand ready to limit the fallout from the Greek crisis.

    U.S. JOLTS report showed job rose 29k in May after a 225k increase in April to 5,363k (revised from 267k to 5,376k). The job openings rate was steady at 3.6 (April was nudged down from 3.7%). Hirings fell 34k following a revised 54k drop in April (was -81k). The rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% (April revised up from 3.5%). There was a 10k decline in quitters after a 60k drop previously (revised from -100k). The quit rate was unchanged at 1.9%. The May data won’t have market impact.

    U.S. trade deficit widened 2.9% to $41.9 bln in May, after narrowing 19.5% to -$40.7 bln in April (revised from -$40.9 bln). Imports dipped 0.1% following the 3.3% April decline. Exports slid 0.8% after the 1.1% gain in April (revised from 1.0%). Excluding petroleum, the trade balance fell to -$36.1 bln from -$33.9 bln in April (revised from -$34.1 bln).




    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

    This morning the strongest movers have been among the AUD and JPY pairs. AUD weakness has been mirrored by JPY strength. This makes sense as Chinese stock market has been plummeting over the last couple of weeks and today Hang Seng Composite is down by 8%, a massive move that really tells about panic over Chinese stock market. China is a huge consumer of copper and iron ore that Australia produces and any problems in the economy are likely to have a major impact on Australia. Thus the weakness in AUD while JPY is up due to its safe haven status.

    Key support and resistance levels in AUDJPY: 88.25 and 90.48 and NZDJPY 79.89 and 85.32

    Main Macro Events Today

    EU Extraordinary Economic Summit: Greece is expected to present a formal request for ESM aid today and Eurogroup ministers will hold a conference call to discuss the proposals that are expected to be laid out in the request.

    FOMC Minutes: The Fed is expected to be more optimistic about the US economy reaching their 2% inflation target. We are also likely to see some optimism on personal consumption.

    US Consumer Credit: The May consumer credit report is out on today and should reveal a $18 bln (median $18.5 bln) increase for the month following a $20.5 bln increase in April and a $21.3 bln gain in March. Over the past year the headline has averaged $18.2 bln, about in line with our forecast.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
    Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #22
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    Date : 9th July 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th July 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD has found support at a weekly pivot candle and moved closed above the previous day’s high yesterday making this candle a new pivot. The pair rose slightly after yesterday’s close and has at the time of writing failed to challenge the trend channel bottom and a resistance level at 1.1117. This level is not far from a weekly low at 1.1130 and therefore made buyers hesitant. This level also coincided with the upper Bollinger Bands in a 4h chart. Market has been now moving lower after a 60 min rejection candle at 1.1170 resistance was created. I am seeing support at 1.0957 to 1.0976. Significant daily support and resistance levels: 1.0930 and 1.1135.

    European stocks rose slightly yesterday and futures are pointing to a higher opening today, while core bond yields rose and peripheral yields declined following Greece’s formal request for a 3-year ESM loan program. The details of the promised reform plans were once again missing though and the risk is another setback, if today’s reform list once again falls short of expectations. For many Grexit becomes the main scenario now.

    FOMC minutes revealed concerns over Greece and China, among other considerations, that encouraged a steady policy stance, as was evident in the policy statement and other materials. While views on the economy and labor market were generally upbeat, as Q1 sluggishness was attributed to temporary factors and seasonal adjustment issues, there were offsetting elements that reflected a very cautious group of policymakers. A number of officials warned against premature tightening and wanted to see stronger conditions before pulling the trigger. It was also stressed that policy decisions would be on a meeting-by-meeting basis. With the Greek and Chinese situations having eroded further since the June 16, 17 meeting, the FOMC may be even more gun-shy about liftoff, adding to market speculation the Fed could remained sidelined in September. We’ll wait for Yellen’s upcoming comments, as well as data, before we shift out of our September forecast.

    Yesterday’s US consumer credit climbed $16.1 bln in May after a $21.4 bln April surge (revised up from $20.5 bln). Non revolving credit paced the strength with a $14.5 bln increase versus the $12.9 bln gain in April (revised from $11.9 bln). Revolving credit was up $1.6 bln versus the prior $8.5 bln print (revised from $8.6 bln).




    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance

    After yesterday’s strong movements in favour of JPY we are now seeing a rather strong reversal. This suggests that the need for safe haven did go a bit too far in some of the JPY pairs. CADJPY for instance reached a daily pivot candle from March and is reacting strongly higher from it. GBPJPY hit a weekly pivot high from February this year and bounced higher. USDJPY found support from a range formed in May but has resistance above. There should be more volatility and trading opportunities in these pairs over the coming days.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    China’s CPI grew at a 1.4% y/y pace in June, better than expected following the 1.2% pace in May that was the slowest pace since January’s 0.8% growth rate. CPI was a year peak of 1.5% y/y in April.

    Australia’s employment rose 7.1k in June, contrary to an expected dip after a revised 40.0k gain in May (was +42.0k) The unemployment rate rose to 6.0% in June but from a revised 5.9% in May, leaving an unemployment rate that undershot expectations in June.

    BoE Interest Rates Decision. Bank of England is expected to maintain the current level of interest rate at 0.5%. The BoE should once again announce a no-change outcome, which would be a non-event for markets as the central bank doesn’t normally issue statements after unchanged decisions, so we’ll have to wait until the minutes are published on Jul-22 for insight.

    US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly from the previous number of 281k to 275k.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
    Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #23
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    Date : 10th July 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th July 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD is yet once again trading at the same resistance it failed to penetrate yesterday. After moving lower the pair found support at 1.1000 support. Earlier on the day the disappointing US jobless claims figures failed to move market significantly but later in the US session buyers stepped in at around 1.1000 support and sent EUR higher. Higher low formed yesterday suggests that EURUSD will try to push higher today. At the time of writing the pair has reacted lower from the daily resistance created by rising trend channel and 1.1135 resistance. However the pair has also made a high print of 1.1134 (yesterday’s high was 1.1125) and found support from 1.1080 while the next significant intraday resistance level is at 1.1188. I am expecting EURUSD to move higher and towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance today. The nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1135.

    Greece submitted its reform proposals at the 11th hour as it seeks an additional EUR 53.5 bln ($59 bln) in bailouts. The 10-page document included many reform measures which had been sought by the EU, including government spending cuts for pensions. PM Tsipras also agreed to shift a variety of goods and services into higher sales tax categories. In return for accepting even harsher measures than previously proposed, the government wants a commitment from creditors to further negotiate long-term debt conditions. Officials, including those from the IMF, will analyze the proposals prior to Saturday’s EU finance ministers meeting, prior to the EU summit on Sunday. Risk appetite is likely to extend higher into the weekend on this news.

    Greece’s concessions could save the day. The last minute reform proposals are similar creditor’s proposal from June 24, which voters rejected in a referendum last Sunday. The new proposals are to be checked for feasibility and sustainability by ECB, European Commission and IMF prior to the Eurogroup meeting Saturday and the summit on Sunday, according to newspaper reports, but initial reviews suggest Tsipras made more concessions, while also asking for a review of debt sustainability. The important part here is to stress that this doesn’t need to be haircuts, which no-one is asking for, but could also be a further extension of the debt schedule and lower interest rates, something finance ministers already discussed last year. Although officials will likely want to see signs that reforms are not just promised but actually implemented, before committing to such a move.

    ECB ultimatum may have aided reform concessions. A dutch newspaper reported that the ECB will terminate ELA as of 6 am Monday morning if Greek reform proposals are deemed too light and Greece is unwilling to cooperate with withdrawal from the Eurozone. The reports cites an unidentified EU official and the ECB’s final ultimatum may have helped to produce somewhat of a turnaround in Greece, which seems to have finally ended the posturing and put meat on the reform proposals.

    U.S. initial jobless claims surged 15k to 297k in the July 4 week, following the 11k jump to 282k in the prior week (revised from 281k). This brought the 4-week moving average to 279.5k versus 275k (revised from 274.75k. Continuing claims jumped 69k to 2,334k in the week ended June 27 from 2,265k in the prior week (revised from 2,264k). The larger than expected increase in jobless claims is likely more a function of the July 4 holiday than a change in the labor market, even though the BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data.




    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (percentage change from previous day’s close)

    This morning EUR is trading higher while JPY is down again as the need for safe haven dissipates. Other currencies’ performance remains mixed and without strong directional bias. USDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 122.08 while EURJPY battles with a resistance level at 135.72. CADJPY is nicely up from the support at 94.83 and same applies to GBPJPY that has rallied from 185.02 support. NZDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 82.51.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    Japan PPI dropped 2.4% y/y in June, from -2.2% y/y in May, and -2.1% in April. For the month, PPI declined 0.2%, ending a string of 3 straight gains. The data are having little impact as the focus is on the rally in risk assets on hope Greece can strike a deal now they have finally submitted reform proposals. The Topix is up over 1% while JGBs are lower as safety trades are unwound. JPY is also losing ground versus the EUR and USD.

    Canadian Employment Change: employment is likely to fall 15.0k in June (median -7.5k) after the 58.9k surge in May. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar) followed by declines (Feb, Apr). Will June be different? We are betting not, especially given that May was the largest one month gain since October of 2014′s 62.2k. An as-expected drop would be supportive of another rate cut this year.

    US Fed Chair Yellen’s Speech



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
    Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #24
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    Date : 13th July 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th July 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    I was expecting EURUSD to move towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance on Friday. This resistance was reached and then penetrated before EURUSD fell back to 1.1125 S&R level. This morning EURUSD rallied to the same resistance area after the news that Euro group had reached a deal on helping Greece. At the time of writing the pair has corrected lower and reached a support level at 1.1056. There is intraday resistance at 1.1085 which is likely to cause troubles for longs. Daily technical picture looks weak after the pair has not been able to stay inside the rising trend channel. Resistance at 1.1190 is a weekly pivotal candle low while 1.1000 is a weekly pivotal candle high and has been providing support to EURUSD.

    Eurozone reaches deal on Greece that could pave the way for a third bailout programme. After epic talks there was finally a deal that will allow Greece to stay in the Eurozone, if, and that is still a rather big if, Tsipras gets sufficient backing for further concessions at home and the other countries manage to get the deal through their respective legislative processes. German lawmakers, who won the right to sanction even the mandate for talks on a bailout package, won’t be very happy to be presented with what looks like a done deal, even if formal talks are still to start. Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said trust was a key issue in the talks and confirms that a fund will “monetize” some Greek assets. There will be no debt forgiveness for Greece, according to Malta’s Muscat.

    The Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a cautiously optimistic view of the economy in her speech on Friday, though affirming that a rate hike later this year is appropriate, assuming “unanticipated developments” don’t delay or accelerate it. The Fed’s biggest challenge is to make sure the financial system is strong enough and resilient enough to whether another crisis like that of the last decade. It’s the Fed’s task to be much more vigilant and much better prepared than was the case previously.

    Yellen also took a swipe at the IMF saying that advice from the fund on US rates is “part of the spectrum opinion” on appropriate policy and the overemphasis on timing of the lift-off is less important than the full path of policy over time. In other words, thanks for your advice on holding off on rate hikes until 2016, Madame Lagarde, but no thanks. Fed looks at a number of labor market metrics as they judge the degree of slack in the market. Currently she judges that there is more slack in the data than is suggested by the current 5.3% rate. The Committee generally sees the 5.0% to 5.2% range as a normal rate, she said.

    The 0.8% US May wholesale inventory rise beat estimates on Friday to signal some upside Q2 GDP growth risk, though a lean 0.3% May sales rise only slightly extended the 1.7% (was 1.6%) April pop, and much of the inventory strength reflected a price-led 4.4% petroleum inventory rise. The sales rise was disappointing and left a mixed report for the outlook overall, though we at least now have the first two gains for this measure since July of last year. Today’s wholesale trade figures are consistent with our 2.7% Q2 GDP growth estimate, with a $35 bln Q2 inventory subtraction that follows a $19.5 bln Q1 addition, with a still-elevated $64 bln Q2 accumulation rate that leaves room for a small further inventory unwind into Q3.




    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (percentage change from previous day’s close)

    Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the last daily close at 23:59:59 server time. The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    After the news about Euro group reaching a deal on Greece money has been flowing out of CHF and to some extent from EUR as well. The clear winner has been the GBP with CHF losing the most against it, a sign of unwinding risk aversion trades. Market participants are more prepared to accept risk again but seem to prefer looking for returns in a currency that is deemed the next in line after the USD in rising rates.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for GBP pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    Japan industrial production and Tertiary Index disappointed and came in at -3.9% and -0.7% respectively.

    [B]Eurogroup meeting.A deal was struck to help Greece. Now the deal has to be accepted in local parliaments.

    US Treasury Budget: June treasury data is out today and should reveal a $50 bln (median $41.0 bln) surplus for the month following an $82.4 bln deficit last month and a $70.5 bln surplus a year ago. Receipts are expected to be up 6% y/y with outlays up 15.8% y/y.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
    Click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #25
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    Date : 15th July 2015.

    THE NEW CURRENCY MOVERS CHARTS TOOL NOW AVAILABLE IN TRADERS’ BOARD.




    The New Traders’ Board Page And Currency Movers Charts Tool

    An all new Traders’ Board page is now public at Hotforex.com. We launched a new tool called Currency Movers Charts to serve You better. It displays both overnight and five day percentage changes in the major currencies against the other majors. Now you can, with just a glance, see how money is flowing between different currencies in Forex markets. With this tool you can identify the currency that’s currently attracting money at and over the last five days’ period while Currency Movers Charts also reveals which currency money is flowing out from.



    EURNZD, 240 min

    At the time of writing EUR is attracting money from other currencies while NZD and JPY have been losing some. The strongest performer intraday is EURNZD. In longer term picture the pair is trading at historical resistance created by a pivot in early 2014. Momentum is slowing down and should lead to a reversal. In intraday timeframe however the pair has rallied from a 4h support level and is currently trading just below a 50 period SMA but is moving higher from the downsloping trend channel top. The pair has some space above before it hits resistance at the previous day’s high at 1.6535.



    AUDJPY, 240 min

    AUDJPY is also interesting as it was the best performer earlier this morning. Over the last few days the pair has risen to a gap caused by the Greek drama couple of weeks ago. This could lead to a correction lower but because the pair is trading relatively close to 2015 weekly lows the downside is likely to be limited. Additionally, last week’s candle was a pinbar suggesting institutional buying between 89.00 and 91.20. Therefore, retracements back to 90.40 – 90.80 could provide us with low risk entries to this market. Look for momentum reversal signals to confirm the idea.

    Five Day % Change

    Another way of using Currency Movers Charts is identify strongly moving currencies over a period of time . GBP has been strong over the last five days with the biggest gains against the JPY. At the same time JPY has been the currency that has lost most against the other currencies over the same period. This indicates that market psychology has changed and participants have been moving away from safe havens into more riskier assets. This gives us insights on how markets feel about the future and how market participants have been positioning themselves.




    GBPAUD, Weekly

    GBP strength has been very evident lately but the GBPAUD has had a real bull run. The pair has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks. The fact that this has taken the pair to a historical resistance at 2.0948 and regression channel high gives us a reason to look for reversal signals as the pair might have moved too far and is getting close to a point were it will correct lower. Look for signs of momentum reversal in daily time frame. Weekly high from February (at 2.0028) is a likely long term target for shorts after the sell signals appear.


    You can access the all new Traders Board page and Currency Movers Charts Tool by clicking
    HERE!


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #26
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    Date : 16th July 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 16th July 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD managed to clear the 1.0920’s lower short term 1st target after failing to hold above the key 1.0960’s levels. According to my daily chart observations, looking back over the past six weeks, a down trend is being observed. This downtrend observation is supported by the fact that price is printing a series of new lower consecutive tops and lower bottoms over the last six weeks. Technically, the EURUSD remains soft, and after the clean break of the 1.0920’s, EURUSD short traders should keep an eye on the 1.0840’s as the next relevant target. EURUSD long traders will be watching the 1.0950’s -60’s areas for any potential price bounce upward penetration to leave a new lower top around the 1.1030’s-70.

    The ECB seems to have some concerns about the re-opening of the Greek banks. ECB’s Dombret said in a speech that “it must be made sure that there is enough available liquidity, should depositors want to withdraw more money after the opening of the recapitalized bank”. Dombret also questioned if the Greek major banks are capable of surviving in the long term.

    Fed Chair Yellen during yesterday’s testimony to congress gave an upbeat view regarding the US economy; however, she did not confirm or deny a September rate hike. Yellen did reiterate that tightening will likely happen sometime in 2015. The markets took this as a clue that it’s still Dollar time.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies. This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains soft against the USD. AUD is strong against the NZD, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    USD Capacity Utilization June stood at 78.4% against 78.2% in May. The economy has improved, but still has a way to go.
    • CAD Bank of Canada cut its key rate to 0.5% from 0.75% on July 15 in the hope of giving the economy a boost. Also, CAD Manufacturing sales in May were up 0.1% after having fallen 2.2% in April.
    • GBP Unemployment increased to 5.6% in the three months to May, the lowest since April-June 2008. At the same time, wages grew at the fastest pace in more than five years.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE! to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #27
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    Date : 16th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

    S&P 500 IN POTENTIAL TURNAROUND AREA




    S&P 500, Weekly

    Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative.

    Yellen’s speech didn’t move the markets that much yesterday. In fact, Nasdaq Composite (-0.12%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and S&P 500 (-0.07%) finished the day almost unchanged but slightly in the red. Financial sector, up by 0.84%, was rising strongly while Utilities gained 0.49% in absolute terms. Technology remained unchanged after hitting a resistance level the day before. Semiconductor sector ended the day down by 0.50% after a period of weakness. Even though semiconductor sector etf (SMH) is now at support and could therefore have a technical rally, the preceding weakness in semiconductor stocks is not a sign of a healthy market. Weakness in the technology sector etf (XLK) suggests the same. S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) has since yesterday’s close moved to the resistance area (2111.50 – 2134) I pointed out in my previous report.



    S&P 500, Daily

    Yesterday investors reacted positively after Bank of America (+3.21%), PNC (+0.84%) and US Bancorp (+3.76%) reported earnings. While US Bancorp’s earnings were in line with expectations the others exceeded them. Big US companies reporting today include ADV Micro Device, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Ebay Inc., Goldman Sachs and Google.

    ES has now advanced to the 2111.25 resistance level as expected. Market is overbought as per Stochastics Oscillator, while RSI and MFI are still below their overbought thresholds. ES is trading at descending trendline and close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Therefore, market is near to a potential turn around level but based on the recent price action it seems likely that it will push further in to the resistance area. Support and resistance levels: 2078 and 2134.



    S&P 500, 240 min

    ES has been trading higher as expected but is now at resistance. The width of the short term bottom indicates that the market will move to a bit higher. Resistance at 2122 coincides with the projection and is a pivotal high June 22nd. Stochastics has diverged from price indicating that momentum is slowing down and potential turning point is getting close. The next important support level is at 2078, while the weekly high from May at 2134 is the most important resistance level after 2122. In very short term, the nearest supporting pivotal level is at 2107.75 (short red line).

    Conclusion

    Yellen’s determination to raise rates is not supportive for the stock market that has been used to easy and cheap money. This together with the fact that US stock market is trading at very high levels with high valuations means that market participants aren’t eager to take the stocks into new highs. Price rallied over the last two days but now it’s trading at resistance. Area between 2111.50 and 2134 is an important weekly resistance. Market is likely counter substantial supply inside this range. This should bring ES back down to 2073 – 2080 range.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #28
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    Date : 16th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

    S&P 500 IN POTENTIAL TURNAROUND AREA




    S&P 500, Weekly

    Yesterday Fed Chair Yellen largely mirrored the recent FOMC statement and her own speech last week expressing cautious optimism about the expected rebound in U.S. growth, amid frustration about the continued low level of inflation. She cited global risks to this mostly healthy appraisal, and reiterated that it is not the lift-off but the policy path and pace of tightening that really matters. She expects a gradual tightening pace that still keeps policy accommodative.

    Yellen’s speech didn’t move the markets that much yesterday. In fact, Nasdaq Composite (-0.12%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.02%) and S&P 500 (-0.07%) finished the day almost unchanged but slightly in the red. Financial sector, up by 0.84%, was rising strongly while Utilities gained 0.49% in absolute terms. Technology remained unchanged after hitting a resistance level the day before. Semiconductor sector ended the day down by 0.50% after a period of weakness. Even though semiconductor sector etf (SMH) is now at support and could therefore have a technical rally, the preceding weakness in semiconductor stocks is not a sign of a healthy market. Weakness in the technology sector etf (XLK) suggests the same. S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) has since yesterday’s close moved to the resistance area (2111.50 – 2134) I pointed out in my previous report.



    S&P 500, Daily

    Yesterday investors reacted positively after Bank of America (+3.21%), PNC (+0.84%) and US Bancorp (+3.76%) reported earnings. While US Bancorp’s earnings were in line with expectations the others exceeded them. Big US companies reporting today include ADV Micro Device, Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Ebay Inc., Goldman Sachs and Google.

    ES has now advanced to the 2111.25 resistance level as expected. Market is overbought as per Stochastics Oscillator, while RSI and MFI are still below their overbought thresholds. ES is trading at descending trendline and close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands. Therefore, market is near to a potential turn around level but based on the recent price action it seems likely that it will push further in to the resistance area. Support and resistance levels: 2078 and 2134.



    S&P 500, 240 min

    ES has been trading higher as expected but is now at resistance. The width of the short term bottom indicates that the market will move to a bit higher. Resistance at 2122 coincides with the projection and is a pivotal high June 22nd. Stochastics has diverged from price indicating that momentum is slowing down and potential turning point is getting close. The next important support level is at 2078, while the weekly high from May at 2134 is the most important resistance level after 2122. In very short term, the nearest supporting pivotal level is at 2107.75 (short red line).

    Conclusion

    Yellen’s determination to raise rates is not supportive for the stock market that has been used to easy and cheap money. This together with the fact that US stock market is trading at very high levels with high valuations means that market participants aren’t eager to take the stocks into new highs. Price rallied over the last two days but now it’s trading at resistance. Area between 2111.50 and 2134 is an important weekly resistance. Market is likely counter substantial supply inside this range. This should bring ES back down to 2073 – 2080 range.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #29
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    Date : 17th July 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th July 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD is now trading at the lower end of the daily chart downtrend channel after breaking below the key 1.0920’s levels earlier this week. The short term outlook still remains bearish even after a failed attack on the 1.0840’s 2nd target extension during yesterday’s trading session. At the time of writing, price seems to be bouncing off the lower Bollinger band; ideally, I would like to see a lower top around the 1.0970’s – 1.1030’s before initiating any new short sales. Traders should expect to see some choppy trading during the next bounce before any resumption of any attack on the 1.0840’s, if these levels are cleared, the next leg lower should leave price to hang around the 1.0750’s.

    The ECB and the markets would like to move past Greece; focus was on the ECB policy meeting yesterday which, as expected, left monetary policy unchanged. Reporters, however, did not feel that it was time to move past Greece with the ECB press conference dominated by questions regarding Greece. The good news for Greece is that the European Central bank lifted the ELA assistance for Greek banks, removing any immediate fears that Greek Banks would not have any funds for depositors to withdraw. What still remains unclear for the Greeks is how long exchange controls will remain in place.

    The dollar was firm during most of the N.Y. session on Thursday, although, the greenback did trade a bit softer upon the release of the Philly Fed index. For Friday trading, expect some USD price action upon the release of the USD Building Permits, CPI and later Uom Consumer Sentiment reports.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    This morning EUR is trading higher against commodity dependent currencies’ such as the CAD, AUD and NZD performance remains firm against the USD.

    GBP is strong against the JPY, while NZD is weaker across the board against most pairs.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • US Housing Starts: June housing starts are out Friday and should show a 5.7% increase for the headline to a 1,095k (median 1,108k) following a big gyration in April-May that saw starts shoot up to 1,165k in April before dropping back to 1,036k in May. Accompanying the report we expect permits to slow to 1,105k from 1,250k in May and completions to slow 1,105k from 1,034.

    • US CPI: June CPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.2% (median 0.3%) increase for the headline with a matching 0.2% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. The already released PPI data revealed a headline increase of 0.4% with the core up 0.3%. Plunging oil prices over the winter and spring worked to depress inflation measures but we have begun to see some rebound as this effect dissipates.

    • Canada CPI: We expect CPI, due Friday, to expand at a 1.0% y/y pace in June (median same at +1.0%) following the 0.9% y/y rate in May. CPI is seen rising 0.3% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.6% bounce in May. The BoC’s core CPI index is seen dipping 0.1%, similar to the action seen in past months of June. Annual core CPI growth is expected to expand at a 2.2% y/y rate in June (median 2.2%), identical to the 2.2% clip in May. Core CPI saw a 2.3% y/y rate in April and a blistering 2.4% rate of increase in March.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE! to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #30
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    Date : 17th July 2015 (Second Analysis).

    DOWNTRENDING AUDCAD HAS RALLIED TO RESISTANCE AREA.




    AUDCAD, Weekly

    AUDCAD has been moving lower in a wide trend channel after failing to penetrate at parity in the beginning of the year. Downtrend is clearly taking place as we have lower highs and lower lows but at the same time we need to acknowledge that this movement is taking place close to a longer term range low. AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend before breaking below the long term range bottom. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

    This week the pair has rallied strongly from lower Bollinger Bands and a support area near 0.9331. AUDCAD is now approaching top of downward sloping price channel which suggests that the short term upside is getting limited. This area also coincides with a weekly resistance level at 0.9664 and a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.9648. This resistance also lines up with a level that used to support price on closing basis in February this year. The nearest weekly support level is at the latest low at 0.9376 while the next significant weekly support level is at 0.9331.



    AUDCAD, Daily

    Price has been rallying higher for four consecutive days and is currently trading at July 1st. pivotal candle low. Several technical factors coincide around the current price level: channel top, upper Bollinger Bands and a pivot high from July 1st. These factors together suggest that price could turn lower from here. Additionally, Stochastics Oscillator is trading above the overbought threshold adding to the indication that this down trending market is quite overbought and therefore vulnerable at the current levels.

    Price action today shows some signs of weakness as the pair is trading near opening price after a rally higher was rejected. However, it is still too early make conclusions based on today’s candle as trading action over the rest of the day is likely to change the form of this price bar significantly.

    The next significant daily support level coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.9515 while the nearest significant daily resistance level is at 0.9664.



    AUDCAD, 240 min

    The pair built a small base between July 6th and 14th and has since rallied almost the distance equivalent to the base width. The pair is at the time of writing AUDCAD is still finding support from a minor support level at 0.9584 and tries to rally higher. However, Stochastics is overbought and shows signs of slowing momentum as it is very close to moving below its signal line.

    Conclusion

    AUDCAD has been ranging from 0.9205 in 2013 to 1.0349 in 2014 and the move we’ve seen since April this year has been taking place at lower end of this range. Therefore the longer term downside potential is limited and this pair could break out from the downtrend rather than breaking below the long term range low. This view is supported by the fact that the latest reaction low did not touch the channel low.

    However, as long as we have a down trending market at a resistance, it makes sense to look for shorting opportunities. In short term, the pair is trading at resistance while still inside a downward trend channel. This suggests a move lower from current levels is more likely than a breakout from the channel. Look for momentum reversal signals between 0.9594 and 0.9664. If short trade signals take place and are successful then my targets are T1: 0.9515 and T2: 0.9475.

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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