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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #481
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    Date : 9th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets rose in Asia, amid news that President Trump agreed to an unprecedented summit with North Korea’s leader, thus easing concerns of an escalation of tensions. Nikkei and Topix closed with gains of 0.32% and 0.47% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.07% and 0.79%. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, however, so far not suggesting that the news will light a fireworks on U.S. markets. Long bond yields are mixed. 10-year JGB’s came down from earlier highs and is now down -0.2 bp on the day at 0.040%, as the BoJ remained on hold as expected. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.23 per barrel. Gold prices are heading for a third weekly drop amid easing geopolitical tensions higher.

    FX Update: The yen weakened on political news, specifically Trump’s agreeing to Kim Jong Un’s request for a meeting and a declaration from North Korea that it is suspending ICBM testing, which was tonic for stock markets in Asia. The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, and left its outlook unaltered (the statement noting that the economy is “expanding moderately”), as expected. BoJ Governor Kuroda will be holding a press conference shortly, where he is likely to maintain that an exit from stimulus remains in the distance. USDJPY rallied to an eight-day high of 106.94, up over 60 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level. BoJ Governor Kuroda stuck to a dovish script at his post-meeting press conference, saying that further easing measures must be considered in the event that momentum towards achieving the 2% inflation target wanes and that there are presently no plans to exit from stimulative policy settings. He also stressed that the BoJ will “patiently continue with aggressive stimulus.” He said that stimulus could be taken away before the inflation target is seem, but weakened this verbalization by adding “in theory.” The BoJ earlier announced unchanged policy. Japan’s economy is amid its longest growth phase in decades, but inflation has remained chronically anem

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Industrial Production – January industrial output to rise 1.5% m/m rebounding from the -1.3% figure seen in December

    * Canadian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate – projected to show a 20.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9%

    * US Non-Farm Payrolls – February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k from 200K last month.

    * US Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from a 4.1% rate since October.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #482
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    Date : 12th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th March 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    U.S. imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs caused consternation and hand wringing for much of last week. But, news of an agreement to meet between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea, possible carve-outs on the tariffs, and the a stellar U.S. jobs report helped revive global equities, even as bond yields resumed their rise too. Meanwhile the threat of another government shutdown could put a wrinkle into trading The continuing resolution passed in early February that kept the government open expires on March 23.

    United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be slow to warm up, but will end the week with a crescendo. None of the reports will change the immediate Fed outlook, however, where a March hike is basically a done deal. The Treasury budget gap (Monday) set to widen to -$216 bln for February from the -$192 bln year-ago gap. The likely culprits are a pick up in refunds and a small decline in withheld receipts, in large part due to the tax law changes. CPI (Monday) could be the most important statistic of the week since it’s crucial to the FOMC’s rate trajectory. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday) with the average 30-year mortgage rate topping 4.65% — the highest level in over 4-years — refis may continue to ebb. PPI (Wednesday) is forecast sinking 0.1% in February. with core seen rising 0.2%. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen returning a healthy 0.5% or 0.6% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year. January business inventories (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.6% from 0.5%.

    Data gears back up (Thursday) with Empire State seen rising to 16.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 21.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 8k lower to 223k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected (Thursday) to gain 0.1% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72. The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts (Friday) forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.26 mln pace (median 1.29 mln) from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.2% in February from -0.1% (Friday), while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 100.0 for March from 99.7 previously.

    Canada: In Canada the data and events calendar shifts to the slow lane this week after the busy docket seen last week. Manufacturing shipments (Friday) are expected to fall 1.0% in January (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% dip in December. Q4 net worth (Thursday) will be closely watched, as the report contains the debt-to-disposable income ratio. The ratio saw a record high 171.1% in Q3, and could move even higher in Q4 to underpin the elevated degree of sensitivity household have to higher interest rates. The report should underpin the BoC’s go-slow approach to policy normalization. February existing home sales are due Thursday. The ADP jobs tally for February is also due Thursday. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for February is scheduled for Wednesday. International securities transactions for January are out Friday.

    Europe: With the ECB meeting out of the way, and a lull in data releases, this should be a relatively quiet week that will give markets and investors time to settle down, digest the tweak in the ECB’s guidance on QE and watch geopolitical events unfold. The dovish leaning triumvirate – Draghi, Constancio and Praet is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place. The tweak in the statement merely had a signaling character and confirmed that the central bank is inching toward an exit from net asset purchases at a snail’s pace. The data calendar focuses mainly on final February inflation numbers, which are unlikely to bring major surprises. The Spanish reading expected (Tuesday) to be confirmed at 1.2% y/y, German HICP (Wednesday) also at 1.2% y/y, the French (Wednesday) at 1.3% y/y, the Italian CPI (Friday) at just 0.7% y/y, leaving the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday) also at 1.2 %y/y.

    UK: The calendar this week is devoid of top-tier data. The next release of note is the inflation data on March 20th. Brexit-related noise will continue to spout forth, though is likely to remain too inconclusive to impart much directional bias on sterling. The ECB is in the process of formalizing a response to the laid-out UK position on Brexit. The next key juncture is the EU leaders’ summit on March 22nd, and following that, the two sides will look to hammer out a concrete agreement (on a future trading relationship, the Irish border and a transition period) before October this year, which would leave the 27 EU countries time to ratify it before March 29th next year, when the UK formally leaves the EU and, most likely, when a two-year transition period starts before the UK will fully break free of the single market, customs union, and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It’s more than probable that a new trade deal will need much more time to be agreed on (the Canadian-EU trade deal was seven years in the making).

    Japan: the March MoF business outlook survey (Monday) is seen improving 7 from 6.2 in February. But, February PPI (Tuesday) should dip to a 2.6% y/y pace from January’s 2.7%. The January tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in falling another, the same decline that was registered in December. January core machine orders (Wednesday) are forecast rebounding 6.0% m/m from -11.9% in December. Revised January industrial production will be released on Friday.

    China: February industrial production and retail sales (Wednesday) will be important for the overall growth outlook. The former is estimated holding at the 6.2% y/y pace previously registered. February retail sales are seen slowing marginally to a 9.3% y/y rate from 9.4% in December. Note the data jump from December to February as there were no January reports due to the Lunar New Year holidays. February fixed investment (Wednesday) is seen little changed at 7.1% y/y from 7.2% in January.

    Australia: a trifecta of Reserve Bank of Australia speeches highlight the week. Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock speaks (Tuesday) at the Seamless Australia Payments Conference. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent addresses the Kanga News DCM Summit (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks (Friday) at the Financial Risk Day in Sydney. The data calendar has housing finance (Tuesday), seen slipping 0.5% in January after the 2.3% drop in December.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #483
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    Date : 13th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.3 bp in early trade at 0.624%, the 2-year is down -0.2 bp at -0.590%. Peripherals are outperforming at the long end, but the picture is more mixed in the 2-year area. Eurozone stock futures are moving higher, in tandem with U.S. futures, UK100 futures are in the red, after a mixed session in Asia. Data releases remain thin on the ground and investors are looking to US inflation data for guidance on the pace of Fed tightening. In Europe, Brexit speculation ahead of the March 22-23 summit, ECB speak and the SNB’s policy review remain in focus.

    FX Update:The yen back out of early-Tokyo highs and is showing an average 0.4% decline versus the dollar and euro heading into the London interbank open. USDJPY logging a high of 106.90 after posting a three-session low at 106.25. EURJPY also lifted out of a two-session low to make a two-session high of 131.77. AUDJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The dollar, meanwhile, traded with a steady-to-firmer tilt with markets eyeing today’s release of the U.S. CPI, a data series that has been having a relatively heightened influence on markets as the participants look to fine tune their Fed policy expectation. EURUSD has ebbed to the 1.2325 area, moderately lower from a 1.2345 two-session high that was seen in early Tokyo. As for the yen’s weakness, this has come despite a flagging bullish sentiment in global equity market, though in the bigger view the Japanese currency yen has been trading in a relatively narrow sideways pattern over the last week, and USDJPY is near to the midway point of the range that’s been seen over the last month. Japan’s finance minister Aso is likely to skip next week’s G20 meeting due to the alleged embroilment of the Ministry of Finance with a state land sale scandal. In data, Japan’s tertiary index contracted by 0.6 % m/m, worse than the -0.3% median forecast.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Budget Report

    * US CPI and Core CPI – It is set to increase by just 0.1% for both headline and core, which should keep the core y/y pace unchanged at 1.8%.

    * BOC Gov Poloz Speech – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks on “Today’s labor market and the future of work.” The text of his prepared speech is available 10:15 ET on Tuesday.

    * RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #484
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    Date : 14th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields traded mostly steady to lower as stock markets headed south. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.043%, the Chinese 10-year underperformed and yields are up 0.9 bp, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 2.839%. A fresh shakeup in the Trump administration rekindled trade war concerns and worries about geopolitical risks and weighed on stock markets, which headed broadly south in Asia, after already retreating on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.45%, the Nikkei was down -0.87% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.32% and -0.225 respectively and the ASX 200 lost -0.66%. U.S. stock futures are also heading south and oil prices are little changed at USD 60.69 per barrel. In Europe today, German Feb HICP inflation confirmed at 1.2% y/y as expected, with prices up 0.4% m/m. The breakdown confirmed that the dip from 1.4% y/y in January was mainly due to lower energy and food price inflation. This ties in with the steady core inflation reading in the preliminary Eurozone HICP rate and backs views that despite these monthly variations inflation is continuing to trend higher, especially with wage deals looking quite strong in Germany.

    FX Update:: USDJPY has remained heavy, settling around 106.50 after a short-lived lift to an intraday high at 106.74 ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier. Broader dollar softness is at play, with market narratives pointing to political uncertainty following Trump’s dual sackings of his foreign secretary, Tillerson, and an aide, John McEntee — the latter over alleged “serious financial crimes.” The yen has been trading mixed in narrow ranges versus other currencies. BoJ Governor Kuroda maintained his recent re-commitment to a dovish script, saying earlier that a withdrawal from stimulus is not being considered as the 2% inflation target remains far from being achieved. The BoJ released the minutes from the January policy meeting, though to little market impact given their rear view nature (given that the central bank releases a summary sheet a week after policy meetings, and given the timeliness of recent BoJ member testimonies and communications). In data, Japan’s core machinery orders rebound by 8.2% m/m in January after a 9.3% contraction in the month prior. The data is volatile month-to-month and tends not to carry much market-impacting potential, as proved the case today.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * ECB President Draghi Speech – Due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt.

    * ECB’s Praet and Constancio Speeches – Constancio and Praet is scheduled will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place.

    * US PPI and Retail Sales – PPI is forecast sinking 0.1% in February, with core seen rising 0.2%. Here though, the 12-month pace should pick up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%. While not as important as the consumer price data, it could raise eyebrows. Retail sales are seen returning a healthy 0.3% or 0.4% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year.

    * Crude Oil Inventories

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #485
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    Date : 15th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.

    FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty.

    * US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export prices rise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72.

    * ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech

    Support and Resistance levels




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #486
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    Date : 16th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.

    FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * EU Labour cost

    * EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.

    * US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously.


    Support and Resistance levels




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #487
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    Date : 19th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.

    United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.

    Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday), the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).

    Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.

    Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.

    The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.

    UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).

    Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.

    Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #488
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    Date : 20th March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.

    FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures.

    * German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected.

    Support and Resistance levels




    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #489
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    Date : 21st March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.

    FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y

    * Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln.

    * FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4.

    * FOMC Press Conference

    * RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #490
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    Date : 22nd March 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.

    FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.

    * UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.

    * BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.

    * US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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