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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #41
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    Date : 3rd August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD, continues to seek support from buyers as price remains above the downward channel line. The EUR found support around the 1.0920’s, as the USD dropped on Friday following weaker than expected U.S. Q2 ECI data. In my July 29th analysis, I reported that EURUSD price “may return towards the 1.0970’s, before flipping to the long side for a re-test of the 1.1120’s.” The fact that recent price action has exceeded the 1.0970’s to test and establish a higher low at 1.0920 from the July 20th low of 1.0808, opens up a renewed recovery towards the July 27th 1.1120’s resistance area. Price may now attempt to extend the recovery to the 1.1220’s before resumption of the multi-week decline.

    Friday saw better EU inflation data as inflation remained stable at 0.2%, although, it was weaker than U.S. employment data, which sent the EURUSD sharply lower. The move was seen by the market as overdone and the EURUSD quickly made it back to test the 1.10’s.

    The U.S. Fed funds median still shows a 25 bp rate hike in September, Key reports are on tap this week, including payrolls, PMIs, income, and spending.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous five day close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    The GBP is trading firmer against the majors on the back of accelerating UK GDP data.

    The CAD trades lower against most pairs, as Canada missed GDP expectations.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • UK Manufacturing PMI: There is downside risk after last week’s July CBI industrial trends survey unexpectedly declined to a -10 in the realized sales reading, which was the weakest since July 2013, reflecting the UK manufacturing sector’s sensitivity to the prevailing trade-weighted strength of the pound.

    • USD Manufacturing PMI: July ISM will be released today and it’s expected that the headline to remain steady at 53.5 (median 53.8) for a second month.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #42
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    Date : 4th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 4th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD, continues to trade within a multi-week downtrend; this is confirmed by the fact of lower tops and bottoms on price. The failed attack on the 31st of July to break above the 1.1120’s also supports the view that the bears are in control of the medium term EURUSD market. However, for the moment, price seems to be consolidating between a tight range within the 1.0920’s and 1.0970’s with traders seeking direction from the U.S. NFP release, due out on Friday. Technically, I would like to see price hold above the 1.0810’s – 1.0920’s after the upcoming NFP release for a potential short term price recovery to re-visit the 1.1220’s, before resuming the multi-week downtrend to reach my target price near the 1.0750’s.

    The EU Outlook was revised down to negative from stable by S&P. The ratings agency is worried about the EU’s continual use of the balance sheet to provide higher risk financing to members without the members paying in capital.

    The U.S. Market ISM manufacturing index inched up to 53.8 in July, from a 20-month low of 53.8 in June. This is the first pick up in manufacturing activity since March, but is the slowest pace of purchasing activity in 18 months. U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in June with spending up 0.2%, a little better than forecast; however, May’s 0.5% income gain was revised down to 0.4%.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    The AUD is trading firmer against the majors on the back of a RBA statement that droped the call for more depreciation.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • GBP PMI Construction: Unexpectedly declined to 57.1 in July from June’s 58.1. The median forecast had been for an improvement to 58.5. At 57.1, the survey still points to continuing robust expansion in the sector, while incoming mortgage and house price data suggest that underlying conditions remain solid.

    • USD Factory Orders: The forecast calls for a 0.8% increase from the previous -1.0%.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #43
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    Date : 5th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD, closed sharply lower on Tuesday in the wake of fresh comments from the U.S. Fed’s Lockhart who suggested that “upcoming U.S. economic data would have to disappoint significantly to get the FOMC to delay a tightening in September.” The market reacted to the hawkish comments with the fresh buying of U.S. dollars, accelerating the downward pressure on the EURUSD pair. Now that the EURUSD has broken through the support turned resistance area of the 1.0920’s, and the fact that price has failed to hold a new higher low above the 1.1120.s, as well as, bearish momentum oscillator analysis, this leads me to hold firm my view that EURUSD prices will continue to trade firmly lower within the multi-week downward price channel towards my target area near the 1.0750’s over the coming days.

    As the interest rate spread between the USD and the GBP against the EUR widens, and the expectation that the U.S. and the U.K will begin to raise rates, further supports the buying interest in the U.S. dollar and the British pound in the near term. Traders should also take note of the recent hawkish comments from the BoE and the Fed board members who have been dropping clues of pending rate hikes.

    The AUD made a large move on Tuesday following better than expected trade and retail sales data, and then a change in language in the RBA statement following the anticipated decision to leave the cast rate at 2.0%. The Board said in its statement that “the Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” The AUDUSD rallied nearly 165 pips on the statement.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    The GBP is trading higher against the majors as the latest PMI data continued to show solid growth. The AUD is retracing lower after yesterday’s strong advance.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • EUR Services PMI: The services reading was revised to 53.9 from 53.8 and the composite to 53.9 from 53.7. Overall, the Eurozone economy is so far showing resilience and data is consistent with the ECB’s assessment that economic activity continues to broaden.

    • USD ISM Non-Manufacturing: July service sector producer sentiment is out on later today and should reveal a 56.0 (median 56.2) headline for the month, steady from June. Other measures of producer sentiment for the month have been mixed but should allow the ISM-adjusted average for July to maintain the increase to 53 that we saw in June.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #44
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    Date : 6th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD has a short term support level near the 1.0850’s and resistance levels around 1.0990’s – 1.1020’s. The short term trend is now negative, and trading in line with the ECB’s dovish position to increase the supply of EURs on the market. Short term EURUSD traders may look to re-sell into strength if prices extend past the 1.0990’s – 1.1020’s resistance levels, ideally between the 1.10’s – 1.1050’s for a 1.0750’s price target.

    Further negativity on the EUR comes from the much weaker than expected Eurozone retail sales, which fell 0.6% m/m, keeping the euro under pressure, offsetting an upward revision in final Eurozone services and composite PMI survey data for July. The fact that both the U.S. and the U.K. are seeking to raise their rates is giving traders enough reasons to support both the US dollar and the British pound, adding to EUR selling pressures.

    On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment report missed expectations; however, the July services ISM posted a 10-year high. The EURUSD rallied to session highs around 1.0930 after the employment data, and then fell to session lows near 1.0850 following the ISM outcome.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)
    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    The AUD is trading lower against the majors as commodity prices have been weakening. CFTC data also reports that net speculative short positions have increased for the AUD. The USD, EUR, GBP and JPY are all trading mixed as traders await GBP data.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: The central bank is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 25 bp. Today is the inaugural BoE “Super Thursdays”‘, which will include the instant-release of the MPC minutes and the latest Quarterly Inflation Report. Governor Carney will also lead a one-hour press conference. The minutes will likely reveal a hawkish shift at the BoE, with MPC members Weale and McCafferty seen resuming their vote in favour of a 25 bp rate hike (having voted for this between August and December last year), though still be outvoted by 7 to 2. Carney will likely maintain that the next move will be a hike, but still present a relatively balanced view in line with market expectations for tightening to start in February next year. The BoE is also likely to trim near-term inflation forecasts given sterling’s trade-weighted strength, the recent decline in oil prices, and signs that productivity is improving, though at the same time is likely to flag upside risk further down the track.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #45
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    Date : 7th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 7th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD price continues to contract and trade within a narrow three day range ahead of today’s U.S. Nonfarm payrolls economic data release. The Bollinger band EURUSD trend analysis on the daily chart indicates that volatility is narrowing, which is typical before the release of a major economic report. Price over the last three trading sessions has stayed below the 20 period simple moving average, however, a bullish cross is observed within the Stochastic Momentum Oscillator indicator. The fact that price remains well contained within the multi-week downward moving channel and the bullish cross observation that has accrued below the Stochastic 20 level indicates oversold market conditions in the short term.

    The Bank of England’s first “Super Thursday” sent Sterling down sharply; the BoE left monetary policy unchanged. The BoE is slowly preparing for the first rate hike, however, they are in no rush to move. The GBPUSD closed sharply lower for the day down around 170 pips from the day’s high in the wake of the day’s heavy GBP economic calendar.

    The USD backed off during N.Y. trade on Thursday after decent weekly jobless claims gave the USD some early support. Real U.S. GDP grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter, according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trade, with China and Japan up. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as widely expected.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    The GBP is trading lower against the majors after the BoE highlighted that it’s in no rush to raise rates. The AUD is trading higher as the BoA remains upbeat about the domestic economy, and demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • USD Nonfarm Payrolls: July nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 215k, with a 205k private payroll gain. The market risk if payrolls are downward, could impact the timing of rate hikes. If upward, should provide some tail wind.

    • USD Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3% from June.
    The workweek is expected to hold at 34.5 for a fifth month.

    • CAD Net Change in Employment: Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in July after the 6.4k drop in June.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #46
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    Date : 10th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD price continues to recover from oversold market conditions as the USD traded lower on Friday, even though the jobs report largely met expectations. The odds for a U.S. Fed September rate hike seem more likely with the non-farm payroll report pointing to strong U.S. job growth. The EUR barely changed in early Monday trade against the dollar but is up against most other currencies. The European calendar is pretty quiet today, with French business confidence from the Bank of France and Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone. Technically, the EURUSD is holding a multi-week succession of lower tops and bottoms. We could see a third attempt for an upward attack on the 1.1120’s as a price bounce off the 1.0850’s, ahead of the resumption of the multi-week price decline from the June 18 high of 1.1436; this is before we see prices grind lower towards my medium term price target area near the 1.0750’s.

    German data weakens, with industrial production unexpectedly dipping 1.4% m/m in June data (the median forecast had been for a 0.9% rise). The unexpected sharp contraction in German June production will cast a shadow over Q2 GDP estimates. However, the EUR seems to be ignoring this as EUR buyers are emerging on short term oversold conditions. Early-week markets in Asia are consolidating after Friday’s U.S. jobs report market volatility. Speculation that Beijing will speed up mergers of state owned companies helped support shares, while Japan’s Nikkei was driven by earnings reports, and the Australian market was supported by a strong rebound in bank shares.

    Friday’s headline U.S. report printed a 215k July payroll rise with a 0.2% hourly earnings gain that exactly matched estimates, but tiny gains of 101k for civilian jobs and 69k for the labor force after June declines were a disappointment. There was a drop in the jobless rate to a 5.26% cycle-low from 5.28%, though the labor force participation rate remained at a 38-year low of 62.6%. The FOMC is on the verge of its first rate hike since June 2006. However, a tightening is still not guaranteed and there remain some risks that could keep the Fed sidelined.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from current 5-day percentage change of currencies against the other major currencies.

    The AUD is trading higher as the RBA talks about a stronger economy and short sellers get squeezed. Demand for Australian commodities also seems to be improving.

    The GBP is trading lower after “Super Thursday” turned out to be a disappointment and the BoE may postpone a rate hike.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • EUR Sentix Investor Confidence: The forecast is for a 20.2 reading up from the previous 18.5, a higher reading will highlight investors confidence in Europe’s economic recovery.

    • USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Due to speak at the Atlanta Press Club and will be taking questions from the audience.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #47
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    Date : 11th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD has been rising for the last four trading days after it created a higher low at 1.0848 weekly support. This has brought the pair conclusively out of the bear channel after a breakout at the end of July failed. This first failed attempt but was a hint of things to come and market was able to create a higher low on August 5th. Yesterday was the first time EURUSD stayed outside the channel for a full trading day thus confirming that the downside dynamics that were in place in July are not dictating the market moves any longer. Therefore, I expect that this week’s price action will be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. I am seeing a support area in the daily resolution between 1.0848 and 1.0934 while the nearest resistance area is between 1.1114 and 1.1189 and 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels coincide with these levels. However, before EURUSD can move up there, it has to deal with a resistance created by upper 2 stdv Bollinger band and 50 day moving average (currently at 1.1090). I expect the area between 1.1061 and 1.1130 to limit today’s trading on the upside and then look for a move to 1.0870.

    German ZEW unexpectedly dropped in August, with the expectations reading falling to 25.0 from 29.7. The current conditions reading still improved to 65.7 from 63.9 and the expectations number still remains firmly in positive territory, indicating that optimists far outnumber pessimists. Still, the fact that investor confidence dropped again, despite signs that Greece is heading for a third bailout highlights that concerns about the impact of the Fed’s lift off and the outlook for the Chinese economy overshadow a more stable situation in the Eurozone. The strong current conditions reading, which ties in with a marked rise in German orders in Q2, suggest the recovery remains on track in Q3, but concerns about the longer term outlook seem to be on the rise. Bund futures extended gains on the weak number and the September 10-year contract is now up 44 ticks at 154.39.

    China devalued yuan after July exports we down by 8.3%. Currencies were impacted by the PBoC’s devaluation of the yuan, with the AUD and NZD both losing over 1% to the USD in the wake of the move, while the won and the yen were hit by a lesser extent. An indirect bid for dollars saw EURUSD tumble back to the mid-1.09s after foraying above 1.1000 after the London close yesterday. The PBoC lowered the yuan’s daily fix to the U.S. dollar by 1.9% to 6.228, the largest devaluation since the central bank dropped its peg against the greenback. The move follows dismal trade data out of China over the weekend, and is apparently a one-off initiative intended to converge onshore and offshore pricing as a new pricing regime is put together ahead of the key IMF SDR inclusion vote later this year, according to the FT. AUDUSD dove over a big figure in making a one week low at 0.7305. USDJPY lifted to a two-day peak of 124.89.

    European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. stock futures following China’s move to devalue its currency, which will add to concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, while prompting concerns that the devaluation will hamper exporters elsewhere as it will artificially boost the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers. This could put fresh pressure on other central banks to take their own currencies more into account. The DAX was looking forward to an expected improvement in the ZEW after yesterday’s robust gains.

    Fed’s Lockhart is still disposed to September lift-off though waiting a month or two won’t be decisive for the economy and a gradual tightening pace means something less frequent than a hike at each meeting. He sees some evidence of inflation heating up, though low global commodity prices could be a concern if they signal weak global demand. Lockhart considers progress on inflation important in setting the pace of rate hikes after lift-off. He views immediate risk of Greek spillover as passed, but any agreement still needs to be implemented. Seems he’s left himself some wiggle room on lift-off on the inflation threshold, despite still favoring a September move.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    AUD was hit today as China decided devalue its currency. The move was seen as a sign of weakness in Chinese economy and as AUD really trades on Chinese fundamentals it was sold off. After being down most against the safe haven currency CHF AUD is now down most against the EUR. However, there are losses against most of the other major currencies as well. The news brought AUDUSD to lower Bollinger Bands in 4h resolution while EURAUD broke out of a tight range it had been over the last four trading days. GBPAUD reacted by rallying to a resistance at weekly pivotal candle low. AUDCAD dropped significantly from a resistance on the devaluation news as Crude Oil has seen some strength from a major support.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • German August ZEW investor sentiment was expected to be rising to 31.0 (median 32.0) from 29.7 in July. However, the figure was down from the previous and came in at 25.

    • US Wholesale Trade: June wholesale trade data is out today and is expected to show a 0.8% (median 0.5%) increase for June with inventories up 0.7%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.29 from April. The May release had shipments up 0.3% in May and inventories up 0.8%.

    • US Productivity: The first release on Q2 productivity is due to be released today and should reveal a 2.0% (median 1.5%) headline which follows a -3.1% headline in Q1. Unit labor costs are seen at -0.5% (median 0.3%) after a 6.7% in Q1. Productivity was negative in both Q1 and Q4 of last year but is now poised to post gains.

    • Canada Housing Starts are expected to improve to a 205.0k unit rate in July from the 203.0k pace in June. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Market Risk: The Bank decided that the threat from falling oil prices was the challenge facing Canada’s economy, and the downside risks to growth were enough for an insurance ease. Such a move would seem to increase the risk of a housing bubble. Not to worry, as the Bank says that easier policy will help assure incomes do not dive which will in turn allow households to service debt.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #48
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    Date : 12th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 12th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    EURUSD rallied to the 1.1090 resistance identified in my report yesterday. The pair reacted lower but then attracted buyers at an intraday support at 1.1012. This has led to a fifth consecutive up day with price once again trying to challenge the resistance area above 1.1090. EURUSD is trading inside the upper Bollinger Bands (1.5 and 2 stdv) and the Stochastic is getting overbought. Trend in 4h resolution has been strong and suggest that this will be another day without a significant correction in EURUSD but the upside is indeed getting limited as the resistance area is near. EURUSD is trading near levels that have been able to turn price lower before, therefore I expect that in today’s trading upside will be limited to 1.1090 – 1.1130 range.

    The PBoC devalued again, shifting the yuan’s reference rate to 6.3306 versus the dollar, which is a 1.6% weakening of the Chinese currency relative to yesterday’s 6.228 (which itself marked a 1.9% depreciation). There seems a degree of acceptance in markets, with Credit Suisse economists, for instance, calculating that the yuan was 5 to 10% overvalued going into the devaluations, adding that anything more than a 10% shift in the currency would spark political backlash. Incoming Chinese data today, including production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, showed weakness.

    German lawmakers not ready to wave through Greek bailout. There are reports that German Chancellor Merkel is facing opposition to the plan to let lawmakers vote on the third Greek bailout package early next week. A deputy to Finance Minister Schaeuble told ARD television that “one needs to look closely” and “ask the Bundestag for approval when the common understanding is that this will hold for three years”. If there is a delay it could derail Greece’s close time table and the race to get political approval before Greece faces another big ECB repayment on August 20.

    German insolvencies are falling sharply, with the overall number down 6.6% y/y in the year to date and down 10.6% y/y in May alone. This is another sign of a relatively robust domestic economy, but also a reflection of the fact that especially small companies in Germany are facing fewer financing constraints than companies elsewhere in the Eurozone. The low interest rate environment and robust domestic demand are also helping t hem to perform.

    Yesterday US wholesale sales edged up 0.1% in June and inventories rose up 0.9%. The 0.3% May sales gain was nudged down to 0.2%. May’s 0.8% jump in inventories was revised lower to 0.6% (0.4% April). The inventory-sales ratio increased to 1.30 from 1.29 (revised from 1.29). Gains in most of the nondurable sales components slightly offset broad-based declines in the durable goods sales. Inventories were boosted by autos and drugs. The data will help fine tune GDP estimates.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    This is yet another day that the market participants are selling Australian dollar due to another currency devaluation in China. AUD is down against the competitors across the board while money has been flowing into CHF. This is a sign that markets are concerned about these surprise moves by the PBOC and feel the need of finding a safe haven. AUDUSD tested the 0.7237 support earlier today and has rallied slightly at the time of writing. The nearest resistance is now at 0.7315. EURAUD moved to the 1.5277 resistance and is now near to another resistance at 1.5332. GBPAUD is trading inside the upper daily Bollinger bands and has reacted slightly lower from the resistance.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • Main Macro Events Today UK Claimant Account Change for July is expected to come in at 1.5k compared to previous figure of 7.0k.

    • Eurozone industrial production: there should be a decline in June production numbers of -0.1% m/m (median same0), after the disappointing German number. Data may be too backward looking to be a major market mover or change the overall outlook, but a weak number will add to prevailing risk aversion, especially after the surprise drop in the ZEW yesterday.

    • US Treasury Budget: July treasury data is out today and is expected to reveal a $149 bln (median -$129.8 bln) deficit for the month. This compares to a $51.8 bln surplus in June and a $94.6 bln deficit in July of last year. Receipts are expected at $224 bln, up 4.6% y/y with outlays at $374 bln, up 20.9% y/y.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #49
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    Date : 13th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    Yesterday’s rally exceeded my expectations for the day as EURUSD blasted through the resistance at 1.1130. However, it still is inside the range I said I would expect to contain this week’s price action. I suggested in my report on Tuesday that EURUSD would not trade beyond 1.1189 resistance. There was a quick move some 25 pips higher but it was quickly rejected by the sellers and the pair is currently trading at 1.1119. EURUSD is now moving lower towards an intraday support area between 1.1030 and 1.1070. The next support level after this intraday support is the weekly high at 1.10996. This weekly high is fairly near to the support area above it and therefore adds to its significance. Nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0934 and 1.1214.

    The PBoC devalued the CNY for a third day, but at a decreasingly aggressive pace of 1.1%, comparing to 1.6% yesterday and the initial 1.9% devaluation of Monday. The central bank held a press conference to explain the devaluation — in contrast to the two previous occasions — arguing that there was no economic basis for the currency to continue depreciating, and that it would keep it stable. The PBoC had also intervened during its overnight session, when it trimmed losses in the CNY of nearly 2% to just 1%.

    The central bank also said that the way the reference rate for the new session was modified would now incorporate the currency’s close from the previous session, as well as demand and supply conditions. All this mollified broader market concerns. Most other Asian currencies managed to rebound, and stock and commodity markets picked up.

    Final German HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1% y/y, CPI at 0.2% y/y, as expected. The breakdown showed seasonal price drops for clothes and shoes over the month, which were compensated by a rise in holiday related prices. The annual rate continues to reflect the impact of lower energy prices, with household energy down 5.7% y/y, a further acceleration in the pace of decline, driven by a 22.4% y/y drop in prices for heating oil. Headline numbers remain very low, not just in Germany, but deflation risks are now longer a major concern for the central bank, as core inflation starts to rise.

    US Treasury posted a $149.2 bln budget deficit in July, a 57.7% erosion versus the $94.6 bln shortfall a year ago. Spending surged 21.2% y/y, while receipts rose only 5.1% y/y. The fiscal year deficit now stands at $465.5 bln, worsening 1.1% y/y compared to the $460.5 bln red ink for the same 10-month period of fiscal 2014. Also for the fiscal year to date, receipts are up 8.0% y/y, with outlays up 6.9% y/y. We’re still forecasting a $430 bln deficit for the current fiscal year, which compares to the -$483.3 bln for FY2014.

    September liftoff is far from a done deal thanks to China’s devaluations and the broad impacts and implications rippling around the globe. For the time being we’ll maintain our call for a 25 bp hike in September. But the Fed funds futures market is now showing only about a 40% chance for action. Odds were closer to 70% after the July jobs report. Factors that have the potential to cause the FOMC to delay are the risks of global economic weakness, the renewed threat of disinflation with the plunge in commodities, potential devaluations of other Asian currencies, and the stronger dollar which could be a net headwind to US growth. It’s too soon for Fed officials to start making pronouncements on China, as indicated by Dudley earlier. While data will continue to be the Fed’s guiding light, policymakers have already shown their sensitivities to global dynamics, and overseas events could take precedence in the September rate decision if the markets become unglued.



    Currency Movers Charts

    In today’s trading we’ve seen EUR correcting lower while USD, CAD and GBP have attracted money and moved higher. NZD is a clear loser today even though there has been no major news on the currency. NZD performance against GBP and USD stand out from the others. GBPNZD is moving higher in an ascending triangle that has been formed below a major historical weekly resistance at 2.4146 while NZDUSD moves sideways at a weekly support at 0.6470. AUDNZD reacted higher from a support yesterday and created a pin bar but there has been much momentum today. This price action is also taking place at a weekly pivotal high at 1.1113.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The minutes of the July policy meeting, are unlikely to bring any surprises, with comments likely to confirm a cautiously optimistic view on the growth outlook with some reservations due to the impact of the Greek crisis and uncertainty about world growth. Deflation risks are no longer a real issue and some council members will have highlighted risks of asset price bubbles, although the prevailing view at the ECB is that this is not a real concern for now and should be addressed at a national level via macro-prudential policies. The main concern at the ECB is the focus on the full implementation of the QE program and a clear message to markets that the prospect of rising rates in the U.S. doesn’t mean the ECB is in a hurry to follow.

    • US Retail Sales: July retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.6%) headline with a 0.4% (median 0.4%) ex-autos increase. There are balanced risks to the report which we discussed in Monday’s commentary as chain store sales slowed steadily over the course of the month after a strong start but a firm employment report and the 2.1% bounce in auto sales will help lift the report.

    • US Import and Export Prices: July trade price data is due today and we expect import prices to decline by 1.3% (median -1.0%) with export prices down 0.4% on the month. The import price index managed to increase in May as the winter and spring plunge in oil prices leveled off but further declines in oil prices during July look poised to once again weigh on the release. Our July forecasts compare to June figures of -0.1% for import prices and -0.2% for export prices.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #50
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    Date : 14th August 2015.

    CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015.




    EURUSD, Daily

    With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850’s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220’s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080’s – 1.0980’s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260’s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns.

    German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% q/q, a slight acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6%, up from 1.1% y/y in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2% q/q in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.5%. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to France’s ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras’ coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon.

    Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below $42 for the time being. Firmer U.S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims.



    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

    The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

    The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

    Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



    Main Macro Events Today

    • EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6% m/m, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7% m/m and fell 5.6% y/y. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9% y/y in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0% y/y, up from 0.8% y/y in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim.

    • CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2% following the 18.0% drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U.S. dollars.



    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    John Knobel
    Senior Currency Strategist
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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