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Thread: Daily Market Analysis by Hotforex.

  1. #511
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    Date : 27th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th April 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Bond as well as equity markets in Europe remain underpinned by a dovish leaving ECB presser yesterday and 10-year Bunds have dropped a further 1.6 bp this morning and are trading at 0.573%, the 2-year is down -0.1 bp at -0.581%, the 5-year Bobl is down -0.5 bp at -0.038%. Curve flattening trades are still at play and Bunds are outperforming Treasuries and JGBs as well as other Eurozone markets. European stock futures meanwhile are moving higher after a largely positive session in Asia as earnings reports underpin the tech sector in particular. Weaker than expected French GDP numbers only added support for bonds, but doesn’t seem to have dented sentiment on stock markets. The calendar is pretty packed today, with more GDP numbers out of the U.K. and Spain, as well as German jobless data and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment.

    FX Update: Dollar majors are at near net unchanged levels heading into the London interbank open. EURUSD late yesterday traded below 1.2100 for the first time in early January, extending the latest phase of losses which were seen in the wake of the dovish-tilting guidance of ECB President Draghi yesterday, following the central bank’s April policy review. Recent EURUSD losses have been driven mostly by dollar outperformance, underpinned by the mix of looser U.S. fiscal policy and Fed tightening, though the comparatively less hawkish/dovish stance of the ECB has been one of the bearish fundamental pillars. USDJPY has remained buoyant but below the 11-week high that was seen yesterday at 109.46. The BoJ left policy on hold at its policy review today, but it removed the timeframe to achieve CPI target following its policy review today. AUDUSD punched out a new four-month low at 0.7538. Data showing Chinese industrial profits at a 21-month low weighted on the Aussie.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * German Unemployment Data- Expectations – a renewed decline in the German jobless number of -5K in April, with the unemployment rate likely to hold at a record low of 5.3%.

    * UK GDP – Expectations – growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.4% after respective Q4 figures of 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y.

    * Speeches out of ECB Lautenschläger, Merch, SNB Jordan, BoE Carney and MPC Haldane

    * US GDP and PCE – Expectations – Q1 GDP is expected to slow to a 2.1% rate of growth , after the 2.9% Q4 clip, with a moderation that extends the seasonal pattern of Q1 weakness. Q1 PCE is expected to slow to a 2.6% from 2.7% Q4.

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  2. #512
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    Date : 30th April 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th April 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    Much transpired over the past week that appears to have propped up flagging investor sentiment. There was the historic meeting and handshake between Korean leaders Moon and Kim. The 2.3% increase in Q1 GDP beat the 2.1% median forecast, which should assuage fears that growth has downshifted appreciably. Indeed, this expansion will become the second longest on record come May 1, breaking the 106-month expansion from the 1960s. Earnings have mostly come in strong, as expected, with Facebook +63% profits jump in particular overshadowing past data breach hijinx. They, and fundamentals, suggest there should be enough momentum in the economy to break the 120-month expansion record (covering 33 business cycles dating back to 1854).

    United States: The coming week is packed with top tier data and the FOMC meeting, scheduled for May 1-2. The most visible reading on the economy will come from the employment report for April. Early estimates show another expected solid gain to start the second quarter. In addition to payrolls, readings on personal income and consumption should show healthy gains while producer sentiment should remain strong, and productivity predictably tepid. The trade deficit situation is estimated to improve after a substantial deterioration in Q4 and Q1 that partly reflected hurricane-related import strength. As for the FOMC, we expect the Committee to hold policy steady and postpone the next rate hike until in June.

    Top billing goes to the April payrolls report (Friday), expected to rise 210,000 in April , following a tepid and disappointing March gain of 103,000. Personal income is estimated to rise 0.4% in April (Monday), following similar gains over the last 3 months. Nominal consumption is estimated to rise 0.4% as well, resulting in a steady savings rate of 3.4%. Chicago PMI may nudge up to 58.0 in April from 57.4 and pending home sales are seen ticking up to 108.5 in March from 107.5. The ISM manufacturing index should decline to 58.5 in April from 59.3 in March (Tuesday). The ADP employment survey is set to dip to 217k in April from 241k (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims may back up 16k to 225k for the April 28 week (Thursday), up from 209k last week that marked the lowest level since December of 1969.

    Canada: The February GDP (Tuesday) and March trade (Thursday) on tap. A rebound is expected in February GDP to an 0.1% gain after the 0.1% drop in January. March trade is expected to show further growth in exports, leaving a narrowing in the deficit to -C$2.5 bln from -C$2.7 bln. The industrial product price index is due Tuesday while the April Ivey PMI is on tap Friday. The Markit PMI for April is due out Tuesday. Governor Poloz speaks on Tuesday. His appearances at the House and Senate this week were consistent with a gradual data-driven approach to rate hikes.

    Europe: The Eurozone growth outlook is starting to look shaky, and while risks to the Q1 GDP number this week are to the downside, there is a lot of noise in the data at the moment, which means like the ECB we will have to wait some months to let the dust settle from weather-related disruptions. Still, the increasingly uncertain growth outlook is likely to only impact the rate outlook for next year, and the ECB remains on course to take out net asset purchases with a short taper in the last quarter of the year.

    This week’s round of data releases is unlikely to add clarity and could start more quiet than usual as much of Europe is closed Tuesday for Labour Day celebrations, which will prompt many to make a long weekend out of it. The calendar mainly focuses on the second wave of preliminary April inflation numbers and the first reading of Eurozone Q1 GDP, which it is seen decelerating to 0.4% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q4 last year — with a risk to the downside. Meanwhile, Final PMI readings are expected (Wednesday) to be confirmed at 56.0, and the services reading (Friday) at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2, all still firmly above the 50 point no change mark. Data releases also include Eurozone PPI inflation and M3 money supply growth as well as German retail sales and the Eurozone unemployment rate, with the latter expected to hold steady at 8.5%. Germany auctions 5-year Bobls Wednesday, France sells bonds Thursday and there is also ECB speak from Constancio and Coeure on Thursday.

    UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the PMI surveys along with monthly lending and money supply data from the BoE. The April manufacturing PMI survey (Tuesday) expected to come in at 54.8 after 55.1 in March, while April construction PMI (Wednesday) to rebound from the weather-affected 47.0 reading in March, and the April services PMI at 53.2 after 51.7 in March, which had also been a reading suppressed by bad weather.

    Japan: Japan is on holiday Monday, with Tuesday bringing April auto sales. April consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to slip to 44.1 from 44.3. April Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) should improve to 53.3 from 53.1.

    China: The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) should rise to 51.3 from 51.0.

    Australia: The RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) is expected to reveal no change in the 1.50% policy setting. The March trade report (Thursday) is projected to show an improvement to a A$1.0 bln surplus from A$0.8 bln in February. Building approvals (Thursday) are seen rebounding 2.0% m/m in March after the 6.2% drop in February.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  3. #513
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    Date : 1st May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st May 2018.




    FX News Today

    FX Update & Outlook: The RBA left rates as expected unchanged at 1.5% and there was also little changed in the statement. However, the statement did add a growth target of 3% for 2019 and 2018. With many markets closed today the Asian session is low on liquidity and the USD remains relatively well bid although, Sterling and the Euro are off recent lows. The AUD was completely unmoved by the RBA and trades at 0.7540, with the JPY at 109.40. Gold slumped under $1312.00 overnight and Oil remains well bid ($68.77) following Israel PM Netanyahu claims that Iran had a secret plan to build nuclear weapons and had been “brazenly lying” about their program. President Trump must decide by May 12 whether or not to extend U.S. participation in the “terrible” Iran nuclear deal.

    US Data Reports: Revealed a slight under-performance for personal income relative to consumption in March that unfortunately narrowed the income-consumption gap of Q1 though a lower income path, although expectations are for a big “real” consumption bounce through Q2. Q2 GDP growth estimate remains at 3.6% after a 2.3% rate in Q1, with real consumption growth of an estimated 3.3% in Q2 after a 1.1% Q1 clip. We saw a flat PCE chain price figure in March that beat the 0.1% CPI drop, though with the same 0.2% core price gains for both. We saw small but divergent April moves in the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed gauges, to 57.6 and 21.8 respectively. We’re seeing sustained strength across the producer sentiment measures in 2018 despite some April drop-back for some measures from lofty Q4-Q1 readings. The pending home sales report was a modest disappointment, with a lean 0.4% rise from a downwardly revised February figure.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations are for a further weakening to 54.8 from 55.1 last time in line with weakening in other UK data.

    * ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expected to also fall to a still healthy 58.4 from 59.7 last time anything over 58.5 will be viewed as positive for US manufacturing.

    * CAD GDP – Expectations are for a rise 0.1% in February after the 0.1% drop in January. The projected monthly GDP figures are tracking a 1.3% gain in real Q1 GDP versus the 1.7% pace in Q4.

    * Speeches – The RBA’s Lowe and Poloz from the BOC, the FED are in media blackout before meeting.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  4. #514
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    Date : 2nd May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd May 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asia Wrap: Many markets reopened after yesterday’s holidays, but there was little momentum on the only day this week that all Asian markets trade. The Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.65% loss, the CSI 300 is little changed and Nikkei and Topix down -0.23% and -0.17% respectively, as the yen picked up slightly against the dollar. Long yields climbed higher across Asia with the 10-year JGB yield up 0.9bp at 0.037%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 2.976%. oil pries are slightly higher and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 67.53 per barrel. Earnings reports remain in focus, Japan consumer confidence declined, while China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI inched marginally higher.

    European Outlook: Bund yields are higher in opening trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.569%, the 2-year unchanged at -0.599%, leaving the curve steeper, as European stock futures move higher. The uptick in Bund yields comes alongside a 1.3 bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields, which continue to hold below the 3% mark. Yields also moved up across Asia. U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ outperforming, after a lacklustre session in Asia. Eurozone peripherals are outperforming ahead of preliminary Q1 GDP data out of the Eurozone, which is expected to show a clear slowdown in growth momentum and together with the mixed April confidence readings should at least push out the rate hike trajectory for next year, even if it is unlikely to prevent the ECB from phasing out QE by the end of the year. The data calendar also includes the U.K. construction PMI and a German 4-year Bobl sale.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * FOMC Meeting – No policy changes are expected, and since there is no press conference nor updated dots or economic projections. Expect the Fed to largely reiterate the March statement that the economy is expanding moderately, with strong job gains, albeit with some slowing in household and business investment. The Fed may show a little more confidence in reaching the 2% inflation goal given the updraft in various price reports, which would be consistent with expectations for a 25 bp June tightening.

    * EUR Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – inline at 56.0 no change from last time.

    * Speech from head of the BUBA (and still potentila new head of the ECB) –Weidmann

    * EUR GDP – Expectations – Q1 GDP is expected to slow to a 0.4% rate of growth , after the 0.6% Q4 number, with a slow down in YoY number to 2.5% fro Q4 down from 2.7% in Q4. Poor weather, a series of strikes, an early Easter and possibility of an accelerated slow down all swirling around this key release.

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  5. #515
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    Date : 3rd May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd May 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asia Wrap: Stock markets failed to cheer in Asia, with developers leading declines in Hong Kong in particular, amid concerns over waning momentum in home sales. Japan was closed again for a holiday, the Hang Seng dropped -1.25%, while the CSI 300 managed a 0.23% decline. The ASX outperformed with a 0.76% gain, despite negative leads from Wall Street yesterday, although U.S. stock futures are marginally higher. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are down -0.2 bp at 2.966% and the dollar retreated after the FOMC met but did not exceed expectations for a tune-up of the inflation references after recent gains in PCE prices. That left a slightly more dovish imprint than the markets had anticipated.

    The FOMC: Left the rates unchanged with a 1.625% mid-point for the 1.50% to 1.75% band. The vote was unanimous. The policy statement noted both overall and core inflation “have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low,” however. On the economy the Fed reiterated it’s been rising at a “moderate rate.” Job gains remained strong, while growth in household spending “moderate from its strong Q4 pace.” Also, business investment continued to grow “strongly.” The FOMC also reiterated it expects “further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy…Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.” The statement was largely as expected and keeps a June hike on track, but it wasn’t overly hawkish such that a fourth rate hike is being priced in.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Services PMI – Expectations are for a rise to 53.5 from a surprise fall last month to 51.7, the construction number beat estimates yesterday but the Manufacturing number was s significant miss.

    * EUR Area CPI – National inflation data for April have mostly been lower, with France the notable exception, so a forecast for a steady Eurozone HICP reading of 1.3% y/y has a bias to the downside and a further dip in the headline rate would add to the arguments of the ECB doves that inflation is not on a sustainable path higher yet and remains reliant on ample monetary support. Core figure expected to be 0.9% with bias to the downside too.

    * Speech from head of the SNB – Jordan

    * US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Expectations a dip to 58.1 from 58.8 last time. Key bell weather of the US services activity

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  6. #516
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    Date : 4th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.531% in opening trade, the 2-year is trading unchanged at -0.599%. Peripherals are outperforming again while European stock futures are moving higher at the start of the session, against losses in U.S. futures after a weaker session in Asia overnight. U.S. jobs data rather than ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S. seem the main focus for markets today. The local calendar has the final reading of April services PMIs as well as March retail sales data.

    FX Update: The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USDJPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high seen yesterday at 110.03. The move reflects a broader correction in the dollar following the less hawkish than anticipated post-FOMC meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday and a position-trimming and/or hedging dynamic ahead of the U.S. jobs report, which is generally expected to be strong but, as always, carries a degree of two-way risk for market participants. Regarding the U.S. payrolls report, they are expected at a solid 210k headline rise, though risks are to the upside following tight initial claims data and remarkable strength in consumer confidence and vehicle sales data.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * German Services – Expectations – unchanged at 54.1 and composite at 55.3.

    * Eurozone Services – Expectations – Markit Services PMI expected at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2.

    * Speeches out of Fed’s Dudley and Quarles, FOMC Williams and German Buda President Weidmann

    * NFP data – Expectations – US April payrolls expected at 192k, upside risk given claims, while jobless rate is estimated to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, which would be the lowest since December 2000. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.2%, for a y/y gain of 2.7%, steady from March.


    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  7. #517
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    Date : 7th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2018.


    THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD



    Main Macro Events This Week

    Global growth has clearly moderated in 2018. And rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, and possible trade headwinds exacerbated worries. Many key reports have disappointed so far this year, including the March and April U.S. jobs report, Q1 UK GDP, retail sales, and various regional PMIs. Fears over real shooting wars with North Korea, Syria, Iran and possible involvement with Russia, hit business and consumer sentiment hard, while angst over a trade war has impacted too. One major result from the slide in momentum is that it will keep central bank normalization at bay.

    United States: The U.S. jobs report disappointed on nearly every metric, and especially in the service sector. The April CPI (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing. The y/y rate should edge up to 2.2% from 2.1% in March, which would be the highest since a similar gain in February 2017. April PPI (Wednesday) also is expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core, after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core.

    Fedspeakers are back now that the FOMC is out of the way and Earnings remain a focal point.

    Canada: April employment highlights this week’s calendar. The jobs report (Friday) is seen revealing a 25.0k rise after the 32.3k gain in March. The unemployment rate should hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to expand at a 220.0k unit pace in April from the 225.2k in March. Building permit values (Wednesday) are expected to fall 1.0% in March after the 2.6% gain in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is projected to slip 0.1% after the 0.2% decline in February.

    Europe: Data releases focus mainly on Germany. German March manufacturing orders are seen rising 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m in the previous month, confirming that the manufacturing sector remains robust for now, although with the earlier timing of the Easter holidays the forecast comes with a larger error margin and downside risks. This is even more true for March industrial production numbers (Tuesday), which include construction and energy production. We are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m after the weather related -1.6 m/m contraction in February. German trade data is also due and we expect data to back expectations for a marked slowdown in German GDP growth to just around 0.3% q/q in Q1.

    UK: The week ahead is highlighted by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (announcing Thursday) – no change expected following the plethora of weak data especially Q1 GDP. The data calendar brings the April BRC retails sales report (Tuesday), which we expect to show a contraction of 0.8% m/m, which would payback for the strong 1.4% m/m gain in March, and March industrial production and trade numbers (both Thursday). We expect industrial production to rise 0.2% m/m (median 0.1%) after 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior.

    Japan: March personal income and PCE data are due (Tuesday), with the latter seen up 1.0% from the prior 0.1% increase. The March current account surplus (Thursday) should widen to JPY 2,800 bln from 2,076 bln. April bank loan figures are also due (Thursday).

    China: April trade report (Tuesday) is expected to reveal a $20.0 surplus, versus the previous $33.7 bln surplus. April inflation (Thursday) should show CPI slipping to a 2.0% y/y from 2.1%, while April PPI should warm to 3.5% from 3.1%.

    Australia: Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.6% gain in February. Housing finance (Friday) is seen growing 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  8. #518
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    Date : 8th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Wrap: Stock markets remained underpinned during the Asian session, as concerns about global trade ease and 10 year Treasury yields hold below 3%. Oil prices remain in focus ahead of Trump’s decision on the future of the trade accord with Iran. Oil prices are trading marginally below the USD 70 per barrel mark. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, 10-year JGBs are up 0.6 bp at 0.041%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and in Asia Chinese markets outperformed again as optimism on future trade returns. The CSI 300 is up 1.08%, the Hang Seng gained 1.24%, while Nikkei and Topix are up 0.21% and 0.09% respectively.

    German Data – Trade Surplus Increased & Strong Industrial Production: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.0 bln in March, up from EUR 19.4 bln in the previous month, largely thanks to a rebound in exports, which rose 1.7% m/m, after two consecutive months of contraction. Imports declined for a third month. The March number left the accumulated surplus for the first quarter at EUR 63.1 bln, down from EUR 64.2 bln in the last quarter of 2017 and suggesting that net exports didn’t contribute much to overall growth in Q1. German industrial production stronger than expected. Production rebounded 1.0% m/m in March from the -1.6% m/m contraction in the previous month. There was a broad rebound across all manufacturing groups, energy production expanded again and construction rose 0.6% m/m, after falling -3.1% m/m in the previous month, which confirms that the bad weather was largely to blame for the weak February numbers.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * TRUMP Speech – Expectations – He will announce that the USA is leaving the Iran deal or as a minimum, extending the deadline. All of which is OIL price positive.

    * Australian Federal Budget Release – Expectations – Some tax Relief for low income families and businesses, plus significant infrastructure spending.

    * Speeches out of the Fed’s Powell – “Monetary Policy and Capital Flows” – one to watch direct implications for potential future policy

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  9. #519
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    Date : 9th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Bund yields quickly backed up from opening lows and the 10-year is now up 0.8 bp on the day at 0.566%, Italian 10-year yields also continue to rise amid ongoing election jitters, after jumping 10 bp yesterday. Curves continue to steepen as the short end outperforms. European stock futures are mixed, with GER30 and UK100 moving higher as Sterling and Pound continue to decline against the dollar, with the UK100 shrugging off a slump in BRC retail sales in April. Oil prices are back up above USD 70 per barrel, but the overall reaction to Trump’s confirmation that the U.S. will pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has been limited so far. Still to come Norway and Sweden release inflation data, France has production numbers for March.

    FX Update: The dollar has traded firmer, led by a 0.5% rise in USDJPY after the Tokyo fixing today. The USD index is showing a 0.2% gain, posting a new four-month high at 93.34, and EURUSD logged a fresh 2018 low at 1.1830. USDJPY lifted above 109.50 for the first time since last Thursday after breaking out of a narrow consolidation around the 109.00 level. EURJPY and AUDJPY also rebounded out of respective trend lows that were posted yesterday amid a pronounced bout of yen selling that was seen in Tokyo. As expected, President Trump announced that the U.S. was pulling out of the international nuclear deal with Iran, though market fallout had been muted so far. Both Tehran and other signatories have indicated that there is a possibility that the deal could remain effective, subject to discussions in the coming weeks, which has helped limit any fallout. Oil prices have gained, but have remained below the trend highs seen on Monday, and stock markets have been mostly near flat.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * CAD Building Permits – Expectations – expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core (medians same), after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core.

    * US PPI and core PPI – Expectations – PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in April. Goods prices are anticipated to be down around 0.1% and Services prices should rise 0.3%.

    * Crude Oil Inventories

    Support & Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


  10. #520
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    Date : 10th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp and back below the 3% mark at 2.98% as tensions in the middle East rise. 10-year JGB yields meanwhile picked up 0.2 bp to 0.043%, as stock markets moved higher and the yen declined. Automakers and banks underpinned Japanese indices and a weaker yen, saw Nikkei rising 0.38%. Stocks are cautiously higher across other Asian markets as well. The Hang Seng outperformed and moved up 0.81% and the CSI 300 is up 0.16%. North Korean tensions seem to be easing, but tensions in the middle East are building and oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel, as Israel said it struck targets in Syria after Iranian forces fired missiles at the Golan Heights.

    FX Update: USDJPY edged out an eight-day high at 109.92 during the Tokyo session, but left the recent trend high at 110.03 unchallenged. The yen maintained a relatively soft tone amid a backdrop of stock market gains on Wall Street and in Asia. Oil prices, meanwhile, logged a new 42-month high. EURUSD’s downtrend, now in its fourth consecutive week, extended again yesterday, with the pair logging a fresh 2018 nadir at 1.1822. Cable has been making time in the mid 1.3500s, consolidating into today’s BoE policy announcement after posting a four-month low at 1.3484. After a run of sub-forecast data there is now a strong consensus for the BoE to refrain from hiking today. USDCAD traded softer over the last day after yesterday posting a seven-week high at 1.2997. The pair has settled in the lower 1.2800s. The surge in oil prices has returned some demand for the Canadian dollar given the benefit to Canada’s terms of trade. The NZD came under some pressure after the RBNZ delivered an expected unchanged policy announcement, leaving the cash rate at 1.75%, but added guidance that it would remained unchanged for a “considerable” period. NZD-USD logged a five-month low at 0.6902.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * BOE Monetary Policy Summary – Expectations – BoE expected to leave the repo rate at 0.50% and the nascent tightening cycle in limbo after the BoE tightened for the first time in over a decade last November, though it is widely expected a hike to come in August. A Reuters poll, published just earlier, found 59 out of 62 economists expecting the BoE to hold policy unchanged. This compares to the survey Reuters published on April 18th that found 69 of 76 expecting a 25 bp rate hike.

    * MPC Bank Rate Votes – Expectations – 7 Votes for the rate to remain at 0.5%, while 2 for a Rate hike.

    * BOE’s Governor Carney speech

    * US CPI & Core CPI – Expectations – The April CPI is expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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