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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

    Hello Forum Members!

    Me and my colleagues will post daily analysis on this thread to help you enhance your trading skills. Please follow this thread to receive fresh analyses daily.

    Thank you! Good luck!

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
    ForexMart

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    Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 15, 2016

    A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.

    TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows.

    UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.

    As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.

    The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.

    Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.

    We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
    ForexMart

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    NZDUSD has been down but it has made a sharp reversal and the signs are looking bullish.


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    Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 21, 2016

    The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.

    Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.

    Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.

    The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
    ForexMart

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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016

    EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.

    Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.

    On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.

    The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.

    EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 23, 2016

    GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.

    According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.

    In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.

    Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.

    The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016

    Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.

    Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

    The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.

    The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 4, 2016

    The Japanese government believed that the cause of the household spending enfeeblement in May was the continuous breakdown of the consumer prices. This event leads to a further compression to the Bank of Japan which is discontented with the present sinewy of the Japanese yen.

    The instrument reduced from a local high. The pair is directed to revert under 102.50. The resistance occurs at 103.50 while the support resides at 102.50.

    We should notice that the expansion of the MACD indicator decelerated. It has stayed in the negative location which signifies a sell signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral location and doesn't provide any signals. The USD/JPY pair is under the Moving Averages (50,100 and 200) which goes on a descending movement. The pair tested the 50-day movement and slip downwards. The 50-day movement is the nearest resistance for the pair.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016

    After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.

    A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    Fundamental Analysis: July 12, 2016

    The exchange rate of British pound to Euro (EUR/GBP) plunged a significant dip of 9 points just as euro has a little price action and the value of British pound emerges from default rate. At the moment, the pair seems to be holding the same level at 0.8514. Due to the extreme support of the European Central Bank monetary policy, it helped maintain the stability of prices and maintained the inflation rate close to medium term position. When inflation rate rises dramatically, there is a need to promote monetary easing in order to minimize financial costs and increase the amount of money flow in the market.

    The investment sector is beset with difficulty, making it complicated to invest a new capital. To this extent the bank management should stabilize the global economy in order to aid bankruptcy. Every financial institution should write off undesirable credits or loans so as to recover losses and produce new income. Since the outset of the stock market storm in U.K. , the British pound ride out a way through it and made a 31-year low against dollar.

    British sterling underscores a big fall of 13% versus dollar and 10% against euro. According to analysts, this will build up U.K exports because anything that is price-marked in sterling would be much cheaper for the foreign buyers. But the effect of these major lost in sterling offered mixed trade signals whether or not it would influence the external trade transactions.


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