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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #11
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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13 2016

    AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.

    The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.

    The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.

    The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.
    The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.

    Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.

    Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.


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    Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2016

    The EUR/USD pair experienced a small upsurge after a possible stability of UK politics, lifting pressure from traders. The USD traded at 96.38 or 20 points lower, giving up some of its “safe haven” profit. On the other hand, the EUR traded today at 1.1088.

    Consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.1%, while the yearly inflation rate for the past three months has increased from April’s -0.1%. Concerns within the Bundesbank may soon arise if the inflation rate continues its increase.

    Fuel prices also went up as oil prices increased, causing transport costs to go up by 0.8%. On the other hand, food prices for this month went down at 0.4% while recreation prices increased after an upsurge in package holiday prices. On Monday afternoon, the EUR single currency experienced a marginal elevation against the USD after slightly up and down swings in a data-light session.

    In general, the EUR was able to limit its incurred losses, thanks to the psychological barrier at the level of $1.10 for two consecutive sessions in spite of the turmoil caused by nonfarm payrolls.


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    Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD: July 14, 2016

    The EUR/USD pair was subject to pressure following the release of China’s latest trade balance data. The Euro went up by 0.0012 or roughly +0.11%, hitting 1.1084 from its low of 1.1042.

    EUR traders can now breathe a sigh of relief after the trade balance data from China came out in their favor after the news release signalled a possible volatility. Exports came out at -4.8% after an estimate of -4.1%. On the other hand, imports came out at -8.4%, a long shot from its forecast of -5.0%. Meanwhile the dollar’s headline figure for June came out at $48.1 billion, about $2 billion lower than May’s headline figure, with economists gunning for a reading of $46.64 billion.

    After US stock indices had an upward surge, Investors and traders are now back to monitoring global equity assets with the promise of higher risk assets, putting more confidence in the EUR/USD and aiding in its overall recovery.


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    Fundamental Analysis: July 14 2016

    The Bank of Canada opted to maintain interest rates during their most recent closed-door meeting with the currency board and bank directors and eventually the rate of the Canadian Dollar moved higher yesterday. The USD/CAD keeps on pushing higher prices most of the trading session but the invested capital gains immediately fluctuate down to 1.2934 close to 1.2976, falling to 0.0064 or -0.49%. Since midsummer the BoC continued to retain its appropriate benchmark with a rate of 0.50%.

    According to the central bank, the financial valuation of the BoC would likely have an economic growth, considering that it has increased by 2.4% during the first quarter of the year and is expected to decline by 1% by the second quarter. The assessment is inferred through the volatility of the capital flows, household consumption and the massive wildfire that ravage the Canada's region.

    The central bank also anticipates the expansion of the Canada's economy by 1.3% up to 3.5% during the months of July to September. The BoC mentioned also their expectation of the price stability of oil prices for the rest of this year.

    One of the problems emerged in Canada is the overall financial vulnerabilities as it resulted to a lower rates and experienced an adverse shock. Other news releases said that a 4% price fall in crude oil will restrain the weakening of the USD/CAD pair.

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2016

    Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased with an exchange rate of 1.0874 but experienced to have a reverse path today and formed a negative candle pattern with a price rate of 1.1067 . The pair continued to strike around within the consolidation period and it snap back in the bottom of 1.10 level and 1.12 level at the top. Short-term market rallies will continue to sell and offer various opportunities that support short-term charts.


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    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 18, 2016

    The USD/CAD pair traded at 1.2971 and closed at 0.56% after the USD was restored and pressure was put on the market as international events shook traders during last Friday’s session. On Thursday, US numbers looked promising, as inflation rates went up after the PPI went over its estimated percentage of 0.3%, climbing up to 0.5%, the highest monthly gain since May 2015.

    The Core PPI also exceeded expectations, gaining 0.4% after an initial estimate of 0.1%. However, Unemployment Claims remained stagnant at 254 thousand, way below the expected rate of 263 thousand. The consumer price index report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the CPI by 0.2% for June, while currency speculators renewed their net long position on the USD following a significant upsurge since June, after positive US economic data caused the currency to experience an increase.

    The USD’s net long position increased after the week’s end on July 12, hitting $8.01 billion after last week’s $4.18 billion. US retail sales also picked up and went higher than expected, which shows how the economy went up during the second quarter of the year.


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    Fundamental Analysis: July 19 2016

    Currency Pair GBP/USD (British Pound/U.S. Dollar) has earned 55 points just as the U.S paper dollars go through a few price differences. Short-term buyers are expecting to have a significant data set this impending week since the recent British Prime Minister is now working for a new trade agreement with Europe. The moving average of the sterling pound is 1.3237 and gained up to 0.5% that yielded $1.3256. The pound increased right after the time of announcing the deal for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and when the policymaker of the Bank of England, Martin Weale released a statement about the need of a firmer financial evidences in order to change bank policy and bring an impact to U.K after they leave EU behind.

    The BOE provided an additional market liquidity and cutback the mandatory capital requirements for the credit unions. Most of the Monetary Policy Committee members is anticipating for a stable movement on the 4th of August immediately prior to the publication of economic conditions and forecast.

    Eventually, Weale will hand his resignation in the rear of the meeting next month. He confirmed that there is no instances of panic selling or panic buying among traders and investors after the strong vote for Brexit last month. Weale also said that central banks are far beyond the horizon of the falling market.


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    Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 19, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair clamped down an impressive pip average of 423 pips after the session closed down last week, the pair’s biggest weekly gain since October 2014. The pair doesn’t seem to be stopping these gains anytime soon, as this week’s opening proved to be favorable for the USD/JPY.

    Sentiment has experienced a downgrade and is in its lowest level since January 2016. Meanwhile the SSI also went down at +1.15, the lowest reading since January 31, 2016, entering short into the USD/JPY.

    The USD/JPY set its record of one of the highest pip sell off at 2,000 pips last January 2016. This sudden surge of the USD/JPY and a decrease in SSI readings might be even more favorable for traders if the prices can break newly-forming resistances.


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    EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 20 2016

    The EUR/JPY recorded a downturn with an estimate of 35 points to 117.23 after euro traded a flat-lining, though the Japanese yen strongly gained a higher level just before the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to be held next week, July 28-29. The BoJ expects that banks all over the world will cease the feverish trading cues. While the European Central Bank (ECB) already stated that they will set up a meeting this week.

    The movement of Governor Kuroda's Mario Draghi recovered and will continue to affect him as he stands to lose through the monetary course. However, he can reconsider the route he used to take or measure the BoJ's quantitative easing then accept that he is suffering from defeat. On the other hand, Kuroda could apply the recommendation from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke about the deflation of Japan for a long period of time.

    Whereas, the conjecture of the BoJ on their upcoming meeting is that Japan will pursue the “helicopter money” in order to widen the perpetual bond payments. The analysts from Morgan Stanley pointed out about the reports issued last few months ago by which it appeared that BoJ had an increase on their purchases beyond their official year pace worth $750 billion.


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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: July 20, 2016

    The EUR/USD pair went down to 1.1071 while traders sit in anticipation of the ECB meeting scheduled on Thursday, where Mario Draghi is expected to comment about the ECB bond buying program after it drained the market supply. On the other hand, the economic sentiment for the German ZEW went lower due to uncertainties brought about by Brexit, as well as Italian bank concerns and worldwide terrorism attacks.

    The economic sentiment reading for the German ZEW went down drastically at -6.8 points. Meanwhile, the Eurozone ZEW sentiment numbers were released at -14.7 points, with both sentiment readings coming short of its expected numbers.

    The Brexit vote will be affecting not only the German ZEW but also other european countries. Although the German economy has proven to be resilient enough, its economy is still prone to the negative effects of economic events in the nation, and the ZEW numbers is expected to reflect these repercussions.

    The German ZEW economic sentiment surprised the market after a steep decline in July, its first since October 2014. It was initially forecasted to come in at +8.2 points.


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