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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #21
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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21 2016

    The EUR/USD gradually declined at 1.1009, dropping at 0.0011 or -0.10% because there is a build up of selling pressure that moves technically into a weaker global market since July 2014 which has 1.1164 as their highest points.

    Investors are now fully prepared since the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced their monetary policy today thus resulted to a physically lower level of volume and volatility. According to the ECB, they planned not to enact new policy to their current protocol but it is still possible for the bank to issue a statement about the negative effects of inflation with response to the Brexit decision. After the dovish tone statement made by the ECB they intended to have a break for eight weeks.

    The Brexit decision also affected the main driver of the price growth which is the relative value of U.S. Dollar. The report about the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June made the dollar to settle against the Euro and the dollar continuously to heighten just as the U.S. Retail Sales excelled more over their anticipated outcome.

    Yesterday, the report about the bullish housing were released and it supported the Fed rate to have a chance in increasing its rate hike up to 50% in response to the upcoming meeting on the month of December. Due to the absence of any major economic releases the market presented a two-way market on Wednesday.

    In addition to the ECB announcement, traders can decide whether to cutback their positions over the long run since the EUR/USD may continue to finished a lower interest rate because of the rate differential against the U.S dollar. To wrap it up, the ECB could plan for an additional quantitative easing program while the U.S Fed is settling an increase for the recovery of the U.S dollar rate hike.


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  2. #22
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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 21, 2016

    The USD gained an increase versus the CAD after investors paid more attention to a possible hike in US interest rates rather than a recovery in oil prices. The USD/CAD pair went up by 0.0036 or +0.28% at 1.3060.

    On Tuesday, the USD/CAD sustained its support from traders after the release of a positive US housing starts data, causing a drastic change in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by at least 50%, after previous indicators showed only a 20% hike.

    The USD was previously backed up by healthy June data of US Non-Farm Payrolls and an unexpected upsurge in retail sales data. On the other hand, the CAD was previously supported by the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its interest rates while rallying for a stronger and more stable economic status.


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  3. #23
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    AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 22 2016

    The AUD/USD pair shifted from greater rates down to a lesser flat rates earlier today. The Australian dollar is experiencing an adverse situation since its net position turned down against the USD. The AUD trading rate is 0.7476. In spite of the relentless decline of the Aussie dollar, the Reserve Bank of Australia will uphold the reduction of the percentage rates within two weeks, although the rate of the US dollar is surging.

    After an hour session last Wednesday, AUD/USD can be purchased at 0.7477 while the pair flattened again in the Asian trade. The New Zealand dollar also regressed with the AUD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a statement about their reduction on the interest rates, with regards to the restoration of the economic performance that were issued after the session.

    The investors are expectant about the diversion of the United States' monetary policy after the US Federal Reserve increased in percentage rate and the RBA made an interest rate recession. While the Aussie dollar could possibly heightened their rate since it happened last May 2015.


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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 22, 2016

    The EUR/GBP pair finished off last session with a gain of 27 points after the British Pound fell and the Euro sustained its value after the ECB held fast to its policy and rates. Traders are now monitoring Draghi’s address regarding the Brexit vote and the bond buying program. The ECB has left stagnant interest rates in the European Union.

    However, the governing council has not taken any steps in spite of the uncertainties brought about by the Brexit referendum. The headline rates are still at zero and banks are still charged at 0.4% as penalty for leaving money inside the vaults of ECB. Retail sales on the other hand fell rapidly since December, with bad weather in the UK put to blame. Meanwhile the present currency volatility caused by the Brexit referendum and the recent attacks in Nice, France and Turkey continue to affect consumer confidence rates.


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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2016

    The GBP/USD is observed to fall off throughout the week with an amount implied as a support near the 1.29 level. Eventually, the Brexit brought a negative concerns to the U.K economy. GBP/USD resulted a downtrend pressure on prices even when the sellers actively managed the progression of the price from 1.3300 to 1.3100. Other technical studies showed that the pair continued to move in a bearish position. The support can be seen at 1.3300 while the potential area of the resistance exists at 1.3100.

    The momentum indicator, MACD showed a decreased in the average of prices. The MACD histogram will indicate a growth in selling if it adopts a negative territory and if the MACD swings into the positive territory, it will give the investors a chance to have more control over the trades.

    In case that the price stock is directed below the level of 1.3100 as its support, it may remain to move on a downward trendline with a potential target at 1.2900.


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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 26, 2016

    The USD/JPY pair closed Monday’s session with a more stable position, after investors chose to wait out Bank of Japan and Fed’s meetings.

    The Yen remained unchanged during Monday’s session, but its bearish views are becoming more favored by the minute. The pair’s resistance came in at 107.00, while its support remained at a standstill at 106.00. MACD experienced a decrease and remained on the positive side, which indicates the weakening state of the buyers’ positions, while the RSI is still on the neutral side.

    The USD/JPY remains above the EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 in the 4-hour chart, with its moving averages all moving upwards. A downward surge may soon start if USD/JPY falls below the 105.30 support level. If buyers maintain their control, the pair may go up to 107.00 and possibly even up to 108.00.


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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016

    The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

    Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.


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    NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016

    Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.

    The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.

    The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.

    As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.

    Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980


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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016

    The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.

    The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.

    A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.

    Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.


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    USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016

    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japan's Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or +0.91%.

    The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve $354 billion or 28 trillion yen.

    The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.

    USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.

    A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.

    An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.


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