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Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #451
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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017

    The US dollar attempted to rally during Monday opening, however, rolled over once again. There is a tendency that the market will resume selling rallies, considering the interest rate differential of Canada with the United States may begin expansion through bond markets.

    The rates of Canada rose as it was placed some large bets while American bonds were shorted. With this, the monetary flow would probably continue to move northwards. Traders are expected to focus more on the oil markets, however, they are still looking some support.

    In the longer-term, they appeared to have a bullish bias while the market attempts to reprice the bond condition and the oil was disregarded in the short term. In addition to it, the oil is generally bearish that influenced the Loonie afterward.

    The initial significant area may provide support at 1.25 region. Moreover, the market resume to sell rallies and we should look for exhaustion on the back of short-term rallies to acquire benefit from.

    Market participants should have the patience to wait for the opportunity during the half day of trading and the USDCAD will probably follow such rules. The 1.28 mark might offer a complete ceiling and a broke on top of that point may deal with buying. Therefore, we should not anticipate for that to occur in the short term and this is quite some kind of “one-way trade”.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

    The Euro against the British pound moved laterally at the beginning of Wednesday session followed by a slight declined. There is a lot of choppiness as it moves closer to the 0.8850 level. There is a massive support found below the 0.88 level where the choppiness is expected to persist and buyers will return in the market after some time.

    The 0.88 level below is being supportive in short-term perspective and it could move towards the 0.89 level. As for long-term, it will search for the 0.90 level which is massively significant psychological level. Pullbacks opens long opportunities unless it breaks lower than the 0.88 level which is not a good sign.

    The volatility will persist for this pair in consideration of Brexit negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This adds risks to market which will be either favorable for the trader or not.

    It is wise to look for smaller positions since the market could react to this at a faster rate and not be surprised and disturbed by the random comments from politicians in Brussels or London. Nevertheless, the uptrend remains strong in the long-term charts and a hint of bullishness below the present psychological levels.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
    ForexMart

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

    Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

    In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

    As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 24, 2017

    The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen descended during the Friday session as it gaps lower than the 111.50 level. Hence, the market declined directed to the 111 region which is a significant psychological level for this pair. Yet, the main support should be found near the 110 handle and a rally from this would open selling opportunities in the market. The 110 region is massively supportive but a retest is still needed. It seems that the market is risk sensitive but the Federal Reserve announcement still has a big impact on the pair.

    Traders are beginning to presume that the Fed Reserve will slowly raise its rates where Janet Yellen has said recently saying that the data will be relative to rate hikes. This could reverse the market trend completely.

    The 110 region is an area could become relevantly supportive. A bullish pressure is anticipated in that area which will be additionally supported by statements from major players such as the Federal Reserve. It is probable for the market to become bearish in the succeeding trading session but there will also be a downward pressure that restricts the trade movement. If the trend breaks lower than the 109 level then the market could collapse.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2017

    The yields across the eurozone weakened while the US dollar make further progress and the 10-year bund yields moved lower at 0.50% as the spreads of the euro area narrowed, following the sluggish results of the PMI readings based on the doubts of M.Draghi to get involve with the QE tapering.

    The fresh dip in long yields influenced the EURUSD, however, the remarks from Mersch yesterday verified the postponement and not the cancellation of the QE. Moreover, the ECB will reduce the volume of its asset-buying program which is expected to start earlier in 2018.

    The euro-dollar pair rallied to its renewed 23-month high around 1.1694 level and headed lower amid the balance of the trading hours to close the day.

    The support for the pair entered the 1.1523 region that is near the 10-day moving average. The resistance reached the 1.1717 mark near the highs of August 2015.

    The momentum is still positive as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black linked with an ascending trajectory and seen pointing to a higher exchange rate.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 31, 2017

    The Euro against the British pound surged during the Friday session although there some resistance found close to the 0.8960 level. The market had a roll over for the few hours but was limited by the resistance level. There is much support found below that proceeds to market higher.

    The next target would the 0.90 level and if the price breaks more and pushes the price towards 0.92 level for long-term. The 0.89 level below persists to be supportive that makes a breakdown far to happen. As shown in the weekly chart, the market sees the 0.89 level to be the support level.

    Traders proceed to buy on the lows as it persists in supporting the euro currency. A breakout of both currencies occurred against the U.S. dollar although the market favors the euro more which is reflected in the pair. After some time, there is a lot of volatility in the market directed upward.

    Shorting this pair may not be ideal but the once the price breaks higher than the 0.90 level. Buyers will turn more hostile as the psychological level of resistance. However, if the price gaps below the 0.89 level which is extraordinarily bearish that would adjust the short-term trend.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017

    There is high volatility during the Tuesday session as it reached the 1.3250 level but was reversed later on. It seems that the 1.32 level is being supportive as the trend proceed moving higher.

    A break lower would push the market for a support towards 1.3150 level then to 1.31 level. The British pound is going to be sensitive to a lot of noise which is anticipated as amid the negotiations from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Hence, traders should be cautious of the of any abrupt changes in this pair.

    The bullishness could persist for the long term. Although, this has been quite extended in the present time. A pullback opens more opportunity to make use of the current value. The market could target for a 1.3450 level above which the peak of the consolidation for the past few months.

    However, if the market successfully gaps higher than the 1.3450 level, the next retest would be at 1.35 handle. A breakout would mean large bullish tone but it will not be long before the currency starts to rally once again. There will be high volatility from the start until this period ends.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017

    The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

    The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

    This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

    The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.



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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2017

    The results of the European yields were mixed as it restricted the uptrend of the euro which signifies that Draghi has successfully kept the rates low. The ECB sees the need for the continuous support because of the less than expected result of the PMI. The European retail sales set in stronger than anticipated but this was countered by high jobless claims.

    The EUR/USD was not able to surpass yesterday’s range but was able to increase the support level. Nevertheless, the trend persists to be positive with the support close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1747. The resistance level is seen close to the weekly highs at 1.1910.

    Overall, the momentum is optimistic with the MACD histogram shown a black indicator with an upward sloping direction that could lead to a higher exchange rate. The RSI positioned higher with the price indicating a positive momentum upward. Currently, the price is set at 77 which is higher than the trigger level 70 to enter the overbought area. Hence, a correction is possible to occur.


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    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2017

    The Euro against the U.S. dollar moved sideways during the Wednesday session and consolidates higher than the 1.17 level. If a breakout occurs higher than the 1.1765 level, the trend goes climb higher.

    For long-term, the trend has not successfully declined enough to sustain the level. There have been two impulsive moves headed downward and there is a chance for this to further decline. If a breaks down lower than the 1.1680 level, the price could further go down towards 1.16 level.
    There is significant volatility in the market as it abruptly moves sideways and adjusted higher or lower as traders have made an unexpected move. During this time of the year, there is usually low liquidity since most senior is a holiday in big trading desks. Hence, this leaves the market a bit dormant.

    Andrea ForexMart, Official Representative
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