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Thread: Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 12 - 16, 2018)

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    Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 12 - 16, 2018)

    Here’s the market outlook for the week:

    Dominant bias: Neutral
    The market did not do anything significant last week. In fact, the market has generally been choppy since February 2018. There is a support line at 1.2150 and a resistance line at 1.2450. As long as price moves within the aforementioned support and resistance lines, the neutrality in the market will continue. Ultimately, price will either go below the support line at 1.2150 to form a bearish bias; or it may go above the resistance line at 1.2450 to form a bullish bias.

    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In the short-term, the market is bullish. However, it is neutral in the medium-term and bearish in the long-term. Now, in the short-term, price moved sideways from Monday to Wednesday and then rose on Thursday, becoming bullish. From the support level at 0.9350, price rose above the support level at 0.9500, closing above it on Friday. There could be further upwards movement, but it will not last long because a considerable amount of pullback is expected this week, owing to a bullish outlook on CHF, which may cause other CHF pairs to go bearish (and USDCHF included).

    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Cable is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. What happened last week is best called consolidation, because there was no strong directional movement in favor of the bull or the bear. A directional movement is supposed to happen this week, as GBP rises against some currencies like USD, but it may drop versus other currencies like NZD. There are accumulation territories at 1.3800, 1.3750 and 1.3700. Likewise, there are distribution territories at 1.3900, 1.3950 and 1.4000.

    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The outlook on this pair remains bearish, but some bullish effort was made last week. For instance, price rose from the demand level at 105.50, to test the supply level at 107.00. This kind of price action can only threaten the extant bearish bias when price gains additional 150 pips, from here. There are demand levels at 106.50, 106.00 and 105.50. Likewise, there are supply levels at 107.00, 107.50 and 108.00.

    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Price moved sideways on March 5, rose upwards later that day and on March 6, but then consolidated throughout last week. The consolidation can continue this week, but a rise in momentum is also expected. When a breakout occurs, it will most likely be in favor of the bear, because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week. Therefore, initial targets may be put at the demand zones of 131.00, 130.50 and 130.00.

    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The market is bearish, but it made bullish effort throughout last week. Last week, it rose from the demand zone at 145.50, to test the supply zone at 148.50 (over 300-pip movement). The upwards movement was considerable enough, but that may turn out to be an opportunity to go short when price rises in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week. Within this week and next, the market is expected to drop at least, 300 pips. The demand zone at 145.50 is the initial target and that may be exceeded eventually.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Try to be humble, honest, and ready to face your own shortcomings as a trader. If you can do, you will have a better chance to be consistently profitable.” – Andy Jordan


  2. #2
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    Meanwhile the European Central Bank’s cautious outlook continues to weigh on the euro, causing the single currency to underperform the dollar, sterling and Japanese yen. No Eurozone economic reports were released today and while lower highs and lower lows tracing back to the February 16 peak signal continued weakness, the EUR/USD has quite a bit of support between 1.2275 and 1.2300. The uptrend will only be broken after a sustained moved below 1.2270. Like the euro, the Swiss franc traded lower today following the central bank’s monetary policy announcement. This is a fundamental analysis of forex by Kathy Lien

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