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Thread: Could the 1-2-3 Pattern be the Holy Grail?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stonecold69 View Post
    Hi Everyone,

    Just wanted to quickly post an apology as my health was playing up over the weekend and I didn't get to do my 'super-post' - I shall endeavour to make useful posts in the coming week and then hopefully something a bit more in-depth next weekend :-)
    Get some rest in - No point in being ill for days on end! Looking forward to your posts.


  2. #22
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    Lightbulb Mediafire Links For K3v1n H@ggerti Method!

    Hi Everyone,

    Thanks for the support - I'll do my best to keep up regular visits

    In the meantime, here's the interactive cd-rom for the 1-2-3 Strategy I mentioned earlier in this thread!
    When you download it and unzip/rar it, just double click 'start' (maybe it's 'start here' )

    It even has a built in simulator to help you practice!

    www[DOT]mediafire[DOT]com/?ea129lufj8somm0

    Just swap the [DOT] with ' . '
    Hope you all find it useful!

    Stonecold


  3. #23
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    This is so awesome. I'm having a look at it at the moment. It's very long and it would take a long time to go through it so I'll have to do it another time when I have a chance to concentrate on it. Have you been through it yourself? It looks like it could take many days of concentrated effort to truly learn it step by step.


  4. #24
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    Talking Kevin Haggerty Method + Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by UncleBuck View Post
    This is so awesome. I'm having a look at it at the moment. It's very long and it would take a long time to go through it so I'll have to do it another time when I have a chance to concentrate on it. Have you been through it yourself? It looks like it could take many days of concentrated effort to truly learn it step by step.
    Hi Uncle Buck,

    Yes I have gone through it and found it rather illuminating! (the simulator part is pretty nifty for practising lol)

    Whilst the Kevin Haggerty method is seemingly only for reversals with it's variations i.e. the Double top, the lower higher top etc. I have now begun to see it in high-depth retracements i.e. if you get in on a retracement for a '1-2-3' the first pivot is a high BUT if the retracement fills the pivot requirement for KH (at least three candles to the pivot low/high [low in this case]) then many times when the market is moving lazily or even entering a range, a decent enough KH 1-2-3 can be achieved...This is down to the 'current trend' being broken twice... 1. The first retracement off the bigger trend and 2 at the pivot low after said retracement as the retracement itself could be considered a macro-trend proivided it has three or more candles to it and also enough movement afterwards...It is worth noting here that this is, in effect, a KH without the reversal of the bigger trend and therefore we can enter one as we would a normal 1-2-3 but with a better risk to reward setup!

    I think what I am truly aiming to do here is find a handful of super-reliable methods for trading BASED on the core 1-2-3 principle of a market never (well in time) going in a straight line and therefore there will always be retracements/pullbacks and this is therefore an abundance of opportunities for us as traders...However the tricky bit is in getting the geometry right and balancing between earliest possible entry with minimal risk....

    Whilst I have seen a fair few KH setups fail, massive amounts of BIG moves have worked beautifully with it and at a suggested 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio, obviously to break even one only needs a 1 in 3 strike rate or 25% !!!! I think even the less experienced traders (myself included as I consider myself pretty well 'read' on Forex but still fairly new to trading) can hope to achieve better than this and therefore every % over 25 that we are able to achieve = PROFIT!!

    Gotta dash as I have to re-install my hard drive image image due to blue screen errors

    Back soon hopefully to spew out more thoughts and hopefully some real solutions or facts that I have found....

    p.s.
    Whilst I would recommend going through the course, I hope that anyone following this thread will be able to do so without outside resources as I will be showing plenty of screenshots and if necessary linking to a photo album where they can be viewed in full resolution in order to see how the entries work without necessarily learning any of the methods it's based off!

    Good Trading,

    Stonecold

    Last edited by Stonecold69; 02-09-2012 at 07:28 AM. Reason: Typo+additional note!

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    UncleBuck (02-10-2012)

  6. #25
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    I've been forward testing the 1-2-3 KH method on a demo account and have been having some moderate success; but that magnitude of my success is limited by my lack of experience in the methodology of the 1-2-3. I've never really given swings the time of day in the past so it's somewhat new to me, even though I've traded for years.

    A few questions which I've been thinking on:

    1. What currency pairs does it work on the best? (or what ones doesn't it work on if it works on most).
    2. Would you say a confluence of the 1-2-3 patterns emerging on multiple time frames the most reliable and therefore highest probability trade?
    3. Can it work in ranging markets, where the reversal happens at the range low or range high? (as it's said markets tend to range about 70+% of the time).


  7. #26
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    Smile Reply to UncleBuck + Notes for coming days...

    Quote Originally Posted by UncleBuck View Post
    I've been forward testing the 1-2-3 KH method on a demo account and have been having some moderate success; but that magnitude of my success is limited by my lack of experience in the methodology of the 1-2-3. I've never really given swings the time of day in the past so it's somewhat new to me, even though I've traded for years.

    A few questions which I've been thinking on:

    1. What currency pairs does it work on the best? (or what ones doesn't it work on if it works on most).
    2. Would you say a confluence of the 1-2-3 patterns emerging on multiple time frames the most reliable and therefore highest probability trade?
    3. Can it work in ranging markets, where the reversal happens at the range low or range high? (as it's said markets tend to range about 70+% of the time).
    Hi UncleBuck!,

    Just stopping by to catch up and thought I'd answer your post in-sorts...

    I have not limited the KH startegy to any pairs and so will go with any pair showing the set up. Thats Q.1

    Q2. Confluence of 1-2-3's is a 'Fractal' issue since the nature of Fractals is that the same pattern can always be found in the other timeframes so I'm not sure that I'd base a trade on seeing it at another time-frame since , in theory at least, you should laways be able to see it to an extent.... I think this will come down to the list I posted and rather than 1-2-3's at other timeframes, it is market direction which will re-enforce any trades with 1-2-3 / KH methods....but we will certainly be working to find confluence of supporting factors in this quest just not sure that 1-2-3's at other TFs will be one of those factors but I'm open to any observations and if you find something to support this then I'm all ears and will look into it further.

    Q3. I think it will definitiely work in ranging markets however what I believe we need to address here is the depth of the pivots and therefore by extension, the stop loss size in relation to the timeframe - I don't have enough experience to actually give you figures but I plan on exploring that as part of my quest and I believe I did list pivot depth in the listing in a previous post so whatever happens, I'm sure I will be covering it....

    Now, that's the questions more or less covered but I feel the need to point something out and that is "I am looking to find the sweetspot for 1-2-3 trades" and so with this in mind, I am not actually looking to get us all doing perfect Kevin Haggerty trades or even 'standard' 1-2-3 trades although there is obviously lots to be gained by taking these trades along the way and making notes as to how they perform in certain pairs/markets/trends as this will undoubtedly helps us get to where we want i.e. Placeing high probability, low risk, high reward 1-2-3 'TYPE' trades and I emphasise type since I hope to be creating what will be, in effect, a 'new' rule-set for 1-2-3 trades and therefore it won't actually be the original '1-2-3' trade in the end...rather 'our 1-2-3 variation!'

    I have had a rough week and will be recovering over the weekend - I do hope to post a fair few axamples now that we have auto-enlarging picture attachments and hopefully this will give you guys some stuff to look at while I am not posting mini-articles/observations

    I wish you all the very best trading as ever and look forward to 'our' thread's future

    Stonecold


  8. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Stonecold69 For This Useful Post:

    AdventureTrader (02-11-2012), UncleBuck (02-10-2012)

  9. #27
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    Wink A Quick Kevin Haggerty 1-2-3 Trade I am in...

    Hi Everyone,

    Sorry for my inactivity but have been struggling along

    I am currently doing some trading and actually closed out a 'typical' 1-2-3 trade as it became a Kevin haggerty 1-2-3 trade and I have annotated a screenshot with the pivots and the entry line is the red dashed buy line as I am in this trade right now....target is 3 time the stop which is the top of (3)
    Wish me luck lol (I think it's still to trigger but we'll see!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	16-02-12 Haggerty.jpg 
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    Here's a close up with stop and target added!


    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	KH Pending.jpg 
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    Happy Trading All ;¬)

    Last edited by Stonecold69; 02-16-2012 at 06:23 PM. Reason: Better Close-up with targets etc.

  10. #28
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    Hi Stonecold and all, I'll give a few inputs from my experience with the 1-2-3 pattern. Firstly, I have many trading systems and techniques and the 1-2-3 method compliments those in confirming a trade setup. Some notes:

    • I've found the 1-2-3 pattern works best on daily candles as I've found that lower time frames, for me anyway and the way I read the markets, is more improbable than the daily.
    • I've also found the 1-2-3 pattern is easier to catch/spot on a daily time frame, as it's a reversal pattern. I found on lower time frames I could be screen watching for a long time waiting for the current intraday trend to stop. However, on the daily I may only have to check my charts once every 1 to 2 days. This being said, other people trade lower time frames and like screen watching. Therefore, if you're an intraday trader or a day trader, you can probably ignore this.
    • When trading the 1-2-3 pattern, I also integrate Ross Hooks into my chart analysis. A Ross Hook is basically a bar that is higher then the preceding bar as well as the following bar. It'll be good to get some information down here on Ross Hooks.
    • By having lots of tools in ones trading arsenal, you will not be tempted to force a trade which doesn't have a very high probability of success. As this is a counter trend reversal system, you don't want to feel like you're forcing the trades to happen; it's good to just take them as they come.
    • It's probably good getting into the habit of placing stop orders.


    I spot a 1-2-3 by looking at the following:

    1. The first point of the 1-2-3 is the latest higher high.
    2. The second point of the 1-2-3 is the latest higher low.
    3. The third point of the 1-2-3 is the first lower high.
    4. When level 2 is broken, this is an entry.

    That being said, Stonecold has done a brilliant job so far in explaining it with images.

    Keep up the good posts, I'll be visiting back.

    Trading is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.

  11. #29
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    Hi YES,

    Thanks for what is obviously an informed input as you sound like you are a lot further down the trading road than me so I really appreciate you popping in and sharing your wisdom!

    I did however want to query something you said although I think it is going to come down to semantics as in how people name things but it is my understanding that a true 1-2-3 is actually a trend continuation pattern and that is where the Keving Haggerty method steps in to show a way of using it for reversals with low risk/high reward???
    i.e. in breaking the traditional 1-2-3 down (and there are a few ways but this is the continuation one) (1) is the last Low Pivot (actually the [3] of the last 1-2-3 continuation where successful) (2) is the High Pivot formed after (1) and is created when there is a pullback/retracement and (3) is the line going forth from the Low Pivot created where the retracement ends and 'the trend continues on'
    The above, of course, was relating to a Bullish 1-2-3.

    I genuinely would appreciate your input on this and am guessing that we are just confusing terminology as some would just call this a zig zag/abc etc...

    I totally agree about using Daily charts but sadly that is a luxury that an intraday trader cannot really afford and so I am focusing on H1 and H4 although I am looking as per the list in a previous post, to find a way to more easily spot the beginnings of these as it always seems easy to look back at the day and see the 'gazillion pips' that we could have made with these patterns but in real-time, it is so much harder to spot them as our eyes are sooo much better at spotting a completed pattern and where in real-time they have not yet formed, we are almost having to imagine where the patterns are possibly forming but I have some ideas which, health permitting, I will post soon - I would love to hear any tips you might have on using the daily candles and where you place stops (if not on the low pivot when long etc) and much more significantly, how you calculate your profit (if you do??)

    Hope everyone is well,

    p.s.
    Thanks for the kind words YES ;¬)

    Stonecold

    Last edited by Stonecold69; 02-17-2012 at 05:03 PM. Reason: forgot to say thanks!

  12. #30
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    Smile Recent Trade and Some Observations

    Hi Guys,

    Thought I'd quickly get these posted to keep you busy lol
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	15-02-12 M Formation and KH SetUp To Look at.jpg 
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ID:	768

    Alos, I am still trying to find the best size to view these at so please bare with me


    Bye for now,

    Stonecold


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